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Last update - 17:44 23/12/2008
Barak's restraint in Gaza is a huge elections gamble
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Israel News, Israel elections 

The debate in Israel over a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip is a debate between two opposing security doctrines: preemption versus postponement.

Proponents of an invasion argue that it is better to fight Hamas before it grows even stronger, as that will reduce casualties on both sides. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who heads the opposing camp, holds that it is better to wait: Perhaps something will change in the Palestinian arena or in the Arab world, thereby preventing a bloody war, and if not, waiting until Hamas escalates the conflict will make it easier to mobilize both domestic and international support for an operation.

Barak, who cites David Ben-Gurion and Yitzhak Rabin as progenitors of his doctrine, argues that there are no knock-out victories in Israeli-Arab wars, only intervals of calm before the next round. And if, following a war with Hamas, Israel would merely return to the same "lull" it is in now, why rush into war?
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So far, Barak has managed to get the cabinet to accept his view. But he knows that Tzipi Livni, Haim Ramon and other ministers who have called for harsher action against Hamas will blame him if the rocket attacks intensify.

And he has effectively bet his election campaign on this strategy: If a rocket hits a kindergarten between now and election day, or if hundreds of rockets at once land on the Negev, he will bear sole responsibility. He will be accused of failing to launch a major operation in time.

The fact that both the prime minister and the army's chief of staff agreed with his estimate will not help, because Ehud Olmert and Gabi Ashkenazi are not running in the election. One veteran political observer noted that the Labor Party twice lost elections, in 1988 and 1996, due to terror attacks during the campaign. If rocket terrorism strikes this time round, Labor is likely to hemorrhage voters to Livni's Kadima.

But even if just the current low-level rocket fire continues, Barak has a problem, because he will have trouble pointing to an achievement. The truce, which he pushed, has not stabilized a modus vivendi with Hamas like that with Hezbollah in the north. Nor has it resulted in the return of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. It did give the Negev a few months of relative peace, but now, that, too, is gone.

Instead of military action, Israel has opted to pressure Hamas via an economic blockade. But its freedom to do so is liable to decrease once Barack Obama assumes the U.S. presidency. Already, international patience with the blockade is wearing thin, and Israel has been under increasing pressure to allow more goods into Gaza.

Just last week, with George Bush still in office, America joined the other members of the Middle East Quartet (the European Union, United Nations and Russia) in demanding that Israel completely lift the blockade with regard to humanitarian goods (food, fuel, medicine, etc.). And if even the Bush administration, which has largely supported Israeli measures against Hamas, takes such an approach, Obama's administration can be expected to take an even harder line, arguing that it is wrong to punish 1.5 million Palestinians over a few rockets.

Indeed, the Quartet's envoy to the Middle East, Tony Blair, told Haaretz in an interview in Friday's Week's End that he believes the blockade must end, and hinted that Obama and his foreign policy team share this view.

However, this approach is liable to strengthen those in Israel who favor a large-scale military operation.


Related articles:
  • Israel: We hold Hamas responsible for any future Gaza violence
  • Hamas declares end to cease-fire, Israeli gov't sources fear violence is unavoidable
  • Barak to Austrian president: I'm not afraid of Gaza op, but I'm not rushing
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    Disturbing trend
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    After the war
    IDF gains in Gaza have softened Israel's stance on Shalit deal.
      1.   Barak Should Retire To Sedorot 05:38  |  Irv 19/12/08
      2.   Wrong 05:48  |  Mark Lincoln 19/12/08
      3.   Bad Choice 06:03  |  Ron 19/12/08
      4.   Marc Lincoln # 2 : Are you sober? 06:07  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/12/08
      5.   Well, the real issue is probably the economic blockade...so 06:39  |  Smadar 19/12/08
      6.   Barak`s gamble 06:40  |  david 19/12/08
      7.   #6 David, or it`s the other way around, it`s a greater gamble to 06:51  |  Smadar 19/12/08
      8.   Fortuna, Israel broke the ceasefire, that`s clear... 07:46  |  BBSNews 19/12/08
      9.   Politics over Statesmanship 08:26  |  Makevet 19/12/08
      10.   That`s the problem. In Israel even security is politicized. 08:47  |  Raymond in DC 19/12/08
      11.   A question! 08:54  |  Wise Saba 19/12/08
      12.   Consider Other Possibilities 08:55  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/12/08
      13.   Barak? Head you win, tails I lose situation. He loses! 09:26  |  redbourn 19/12/08
      14.   there was once a British PM who thought like Barak 09:26  |  zionist forever 19/12/08
      15.   Unbelievable all those posts claiming Israel broke the truce! 09:51  |  S 19/12/08
      16.   So polticians make life/death decisions for job opportunities 10:23  |  Sam Sur 19/12/08
      17.   #8 bbs news - wrong again 10:32  |  Adrian de Klerk 19/12/08
      18.   #15, S 10:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 19/12/08
      19.   #4, Fortuna BenMayor 10:44  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 19/12/08
      20.   #15 You are kidding, right, S? 11:35  |  Johnboy 19/12/08
      21.   Restraint - or refusal to demonstrate failure? 12:05  |  Manny Goldstein 19/12/08
      22.   Egypt brokered that temporary cease fire 12:46  |  Joseph.E 19/12/08
      23.   # 21 Manny Goldstein @ London-UK 13:50  |  Joseph.E 19/12/08
      24.   Fortuna Benmayor - you have a memory problem? 15:18  |  Mark Lincoln 19/12/08
      25.   Barak is wrong 16:51  |  Brod 19/12/08
      26.   I for one think restraint is more reasonable 19:54  |  Jo 19/12/08
      27.   Johnboy, you`re not at all with a clue, right? 19:55  |  SDHD 19/12/08
      28.   BARAKS RESTRAINT 20:18  |  Steve Gure 19/12/08
      29.   WRONG! 20:41  |  steve dill 19/12/08
      30.   Labor needs a niche 20:42  |  steve dill 19/12/08
      31.   Barak calls it restraint, Israelis have another name for it 20:58  |  Judea 19/12/08
      32.   either you`re restraint or you`re not 23:19  |  rm 19/12/08
      33.   All quiet on the West Bank 23:42  |  Yonatan 19/12/08
      34.   To Israel: Make Hamas Bleed Profusely 02:45  |  Dav Lev 20/12/08
      35.   Why is it when you come down hard on Barak Haaretz censors 04:31  |  Judea 20/12/08
      36.   Dav Lev compares Palestinians to bacteria... 04:44  |  BBSNews 20/12/08
      37.   #28 Yonatan Your suggestions aren`t good 05:04  |  Smadar 20/12/08
      38.   I don`t compare them with bacteria.... 06:45  |  Sean 20/12/08
      39.   Israel is in denial 06:50  |  rm 20/12/08
      40.   restraint is why Shalit is still in Gaza 08:04  |  Susan 20/12/08
      41.   What? Ceding to the Palestinians all the time? 09:55  |  Honesty 20/12/08
      42.   bbs - wrong again - it was the pal who broke it 10:30  |  Adrian de Klerk 20/12/08
      43.   Johnboy #20 (changed try) 10:37  |  S 20/12/08
      44.   Palestinians...Palestinians... Palestinians.... 12:41  |  Natasha 20/12/08
      45.   Johnboy #20 13:53  |  S 20/12/08
     Read & React
    Livni: Israel should strike Hamas again to halt arms smuggling
    Responses: 66
    Egypt to Hamas: Take Gaza truce before Netanyahu is voted PM
    Responses: 64
    Netanyahu: Likud-led government wouldn't build new settlements
    Responses: 54
    Akiva Eldar: Saudi plan offers Israel united front with Arab states against Iran
    Responses: 33
    IDF rabbinate publication during Gaza war: We will show no mercy on the cruel
    Responses: 50


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    15:43 Lecturers say IDF officer who justified Gaza strikes should not teach law
    10:14 Nine held for allegedly attacking Israeli Arabs in Upper Nazareth
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