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Will Obama press Israel to allow nuclear inspection of Dimona reactor?
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: George W. Bush, Barack Obama 

One Israeli official who should be busy during the presidential reign of Barack Obama is Shaul Horev, director general of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission. The new president and his choice for secretary of state, New York Senator Hillary Clinton, intend to revive international arms-control efforts, which have been on hold during the eight years of President George W. Bush's administration. Such initiatives inevitably arouse suspicion and testiness among Israeli officials, who are anxious about the erosion of their country's deterrent capability.

In their campaigns, Obama and Clinton promised that arms control would once again play a central role in American diplomacy. Their associates and supporters, some of whom are candidates for positions in the new administration, have repeated this message relentlessly to Israeli colleagues and acquaintances.

Last Sunday, Jim Hoagland, who writes a column on foreign affairs in The Washington Post, wrote that Obama should learn from president John F. Kennedy and call for worldwide nuclear disarmament. Hoagland's columns generally express the consensus of the U.S. foreign affairs establishment. Kennedy was the last American president to have tried to stop the Israeli nuclear project. He threatened that there would be serious ramifications vis-a-vis U.S. support for Israel if the reactor in Dimona was not opened to frequent visits by inspectors. The pressure that Kennedy applied on the matter of Dimona was apparently one of the factors in David Ben-Gurion's resignation in 1963. Kennedy's assassination several months later led to a relaxation of that pressure and Israel was able to complete construction of the reactor in the Negev.
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Since then Israel has stuck to the policy of "nuclear ambiguity," which was established in 1969, in an understanding between then-prime minister Golda Meir and president Richard Nixon. Israel, according to foreign sources, promised to adhere to the policy of ambiguity, and in return the United States released it from signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, by which only the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (the United States, Russia, Britain, France and China) are authorized to possess nuclear bombs. The whole world signed the treaty, apart from India, Pakistan and Israel.

The problem that Obama faces is not the reactor in Dimona, but rather the Iranian installation for enriching uranium in Natanz. Iran is getting close to a bomb and Bush has left the lit fuse to Obama, together with the need to deal with North Korea, which has developed nuclear weapons as a means of wielding diplomatic pressure, and also provided Syria with the reactor that was destroyed by the bombing in September 2007.

The discussion on how Israel will deal with Iran is distinguished by its superficiality. Generally, there are but two possible scenarios foreseen here: Either Iran will be bombed and its installations will be destroyed, or it will become a nuclear power. The Americans lived in the shadow of the nuclear weapons possessed by mass murderers Joseph Stalin and Mao Tse-tung, and today too they are threatened by thousands of Russian warheads. A few Iranian bombs will barely change the balance. But the Americans also have global responsibility for preserving world order. If Iran "crosses the threshold," the NPT regime will collapse. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and heaven knows who else will want to develop a "Sunni bomb" as a counterweight to Iran. This will make the Middle East even more violent, threatening and volatile than it already is today.

Two years ago, four senior politicians representing both American parties - former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, former defense secretary William Perry and former senator Sam Nunn - jointly called for "a nuclear-free world." In an article published in The Wall Street Journal in January 2007, the "Gang of Four" called for the nations of the world to join forces "to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, to prevent their spread into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately to end them as a threat to the world."

In a sequel to that article last January, the four called upon the U.S. and Russia to spearhead the effort by taking practical steps toward disarmament. In conclusion, they wrote, "In some respects, the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons is like the top of a very tall mountain. From the vantage point of our troubled world today, we can't even see the top of the mountain, and it is tempting and easy to say we can't get there from here. But the risks from continuing to go down the mountain or standing pat are too real to ignore. We must chart a course to higher ground where the mountaintop becomes more visible."

Last week the four were joined by about 100 leading world figures, who have initiated a new movement for nuclear disarmament, called Global Zero. On the list are familiar "peaceniks" like Nobel Prize laureates Jimmy Carter, Desmond Tutu and Mikhail Gorbachev, as well as Queen Noor of Jordan and Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa, but also American establishment figures from the political center. The movement's primary target is Obama, and it also seeks to influence public opinion.

Obama and Clinton expressed support for the Gang of Four initiative during their respective primary campaigns, though they have not yet adopted it explicitly as a basis for policy. Now Hoagland is calling on the new president to adopt the two initiatives for nuclear disarmament, and to present them as part of his administration's vision.

Israel's survival

In Israel there is a public consensus that nuclear capability is important for the country's survival and shouldn't be tampered with. There is not a single Israeli among the signatories of Global Zero. The initiatives are not directed against Israel, but as the Obama administration takes shape and establishes its objectives, Israel will have to decide how to act.

In the short range, the two initiatives that are relevant to Israel are the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, known as the CTBT, and a treaty that's in the works for suspending production of fissionable materials that can be used for making nuclear weapons. Israel has signed the CTBT and has also participated in building a global system for monitoring nuclear tests, but has not yet given final authorization of its approval of the treaty. The reason? Bush's objection to the treaty and refusal to sign it. Obama intends to bring the CTBT up for ratification in the Senate in the months after taking office, and it is probable that Israel will follow in his footsteps.

The "nuclear freeze" treaty requires a state to commit to not manufacture plutonium. Attempts to formulate the treaty have been going on for many years, but have run into political snags and problems of principle (for example, the question of whether and how to verify its implementation, or what to do about a state like Iran, which is supposedly enriching uranium for civilian purposes).

Ten years ago, Bill Clinton's administration demanded that Israel not raise any obstacles with respect to this treaty. The prime minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, acquiesced unenthusiastically to the pressures. A few months later, when he signed the Wye agreement with the Palestinians, Netanyahu asked for and received from Clinton a written commitment that American moves toward weapons control would not harm Israel's deterrent capability. In the summer of 1999, then-prime minister Ehud Barak received a similar letter.

During the Bush years, Israel enjoyed relative quiet in this realm. This was after Bush had agreed to offer assistance to India for development of civilian nuclear reactors, despite its refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and even though it had carried out nuclear weapons tests. In Israel, the status quo remains in effect, and Prime Minister Olmert asked Bush during their final meeting last month to pass on to Obama the understandings that exist between the U.S. and Israel on nuclear matters.

Now Israeli officials are expecting that Obama will return to the "freeze treaty," even if not immediately. If Netanyahu comes back into power, and persists in his opposition to withdrawing from the territories, he will be more vulnerable to pressures in the nuclear realm. Israel has made its willingness to move forward on arms control contingent on progress in the peace process; it will have difficulty refusing to cooperate on both issues at once. Obama will not demand that Israel rid itself of whatever nuclear capabilities it may have, but he might well demand a freeze, in order to strengthen the American position, and to tempt Egypt and Syria not to follow in Iran's footsteps. For years now, Egypt has tried to provoke Israel, in every possible international forum, on nuclear issues; it will not make any concessions to the Americans if Israel is not dealt with.

Researcher Avner Cohen, author of the book "Israel and the Bomb," believes that with a new American policy there could be an opportunity for Israel. According to him, Israel should be able to win a certain amount of recognition for its status, like India, after acting responsibly and cautiously for so long. Cohen says that if America concludes a deal with Iran, Israel should get something, too.

The prevailing view in the Israeli establishment is that everything depends on what Obama achieves vis-a-vis the Iranians. If he stops them before they have built a bomb, and maintains the world order with regard to nuclear armament, there will be more legitimacy for making demands of Israel. But if he fails, and the nightmare of a nuclear Iran comes true, no one will be able to pressure Israel. In that case, the discussion will revolve around ways to strengthen Israel - not about good intentions and arms-control treaties.



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      1.   Israel not only nuclear ambiguous, but altogether peace ambiguous 11:42  |  Ivar 19/12/08
      2.   Realpolitik - Take what you can get 12:00  |  Manny Goldstein 19/12/08
      3.   Obama, leave Israel alone when it comes to her nuclear..... 12:38  |  Swiss (Dino) 19/12/08
      4.   Actually the US assured the IAEA 13:48  |  Mark Lincoln 19/12/08
      5.   As they say on exam papers: "Discuss" 14:28  |  Clickfool 19/12/08
      6.   Imperialism 15:18  |  Lava Meershein 19/12/08
      7.   When conventional wars fail, out come the nukes. 16:09  |  Lou Medel 19/12/08
      8.   Obama and Dimona 17:00  |  Brod 19/12/08
      9.   World wide nuclear disarmament. 17:50  |  David Nigel Braham 19/12/08
      10.   Inspect Dimona to verify its peaceful purpose? What a joke. 18:52  |  Aounist 19/12/08
      11.   If Israel can have Dimona 19:13  |  muggles 19/12/08
      12.   Why would they develop a counterweight? 19:38  |  Scientist 19/12/08
      13.   Dimona in Israel... any others out of sight out of mind? 20:11  |  Maureen Ann 19/12/08
      14.   Israel and Defensive Shield 00:04  |  St. Michael Traveler 20/12/08
      15.   Dimona 00:59  |  Scott L. Havsy 20/12/08
      16.   #4 Clickfool As they say on exam papers: "Discuss" 01:27  |  EstEuroSpaniard 20/12/08
      17.   ONLY ON ONE CONDITION 01:32  |  indrajaya 20/12/08
      18.   Answer: No. 01:58  |  peacelover 20/12/08
      19.   indrajaya #12 you keep on ignoring the facts 02:05  |  Gee 20/12/08
      20.   Well here is something no one can deny 03:21  |  EstEuroSpaniard 20/12/08
      21.   Aluf Benn, search another idea for blind provocation. 03:47  |  Fortuna Benmayor 20/12/08
      22.   OBAMA AND KENNEDY, will it happen again? 04:16  |  VIPER 20/12/08
      23.   press Israel 07:14  |  Shmuelshachor 20/12/08
      24.   The road to nuclear disarmament goes through Tehran 07:17  |  Morris Valentine 20/12/08
      25.   An excellent post, Morris Valentine, could not have said it bette 07:42  |  jj 20/12/08
      26.   Inane comments 08:13  |  Gordon 20/12/08
      27.   For EstEuroSpaniard # 16 10:46  |  Clickfool 20/12/08
      28.   For Morris Valentine # 24 11:02  |  Clickfool 20/12/08
      29.   "and heaven knows who else" 12:00  |  christoph 20/12/08
      30.   Too bad Israel didn`t listen to Kennedy 16:01  |  Dan 20/12/08
      31.   Dimona Obama and "No" 16:35  |  DT 20/12/08
      32.   Livni and Obama will be a disaster for Israel 16:45  |  Jason 20/12/08
      33.   Bush/Obama 17:25  |  The Teacher/Instruct 20/12/08
      34.   When the NPT was proposed 20:13  |  Mark Lincoln 20/12/08
      35.   To my friend Clickfool (#28) 19:38  |  Morris Valentine 21/12/08
      36.   nothing 20:31  |  jineesh india 21/12/08
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