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Last update - 10:53 18/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Hamas seems to want a cease-fire - but with Qassams
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel News, Hamas 

The day before Hamas is expected to say the lull in the Gaza Strip has come to an end, Israel is seeking to renew a full cease-fire and will at this stage avoid offensive actions as much as possible. Hamas, embroiled in a harsh internal dispute, is leaving all options open.

However Islamic Jihad launched approximately 10 rockets on the Negev, and that could seriously impact the situation.
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At a meeting Wednesday of the defense establishment brass, officials said that over the past two days Hamas has been unable (and it is unclear how much it has tried) to rein in Islamic Jihad. Beginning Thursday one of three scenarios could kick in: Hamas and the smaller factions could gradually return to full cease-fire mode without officially saying so; the Palestinians could attempt to institute something less than a cease-fire, in which Israel will have to restrain itself in the face of daily rocket fire; or there will be all-out escalation by the Palestinians, which will engender a harsh response by the Israel Defense Force.

Israel, favoring the first scenario, is in no hurry to respond forcefully. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, supported by the defense establishment, believes that if escalation does occur, the international community must see Hamas as bearing the blame. The Quartet has been putting considerable pressure on Israel to ease the economic blockade of Gaza.

If it is made clear that the Palestinians are to blame for renewed violence, Israel will be relieved from some of the burden.

This time, the army is in no hurry to enter the fray. Even a brigade-strength operation, it is argued, would bring on heavy rocket fire by Hamas throughout southern Israel, leading to an IDF takeover of the whole Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, an Arab official involved in cease-fire talks said Hamas political leader Khaled Meshal, who is based in Damascus, is prevailing with his line of "neither cease-fire nor no cease-fire."

The official says Meshal's dominance stems from his control of Hamas funds and his influence over senior members of Hamas' military wing in Gaza.

Gaza commentators are saying the same thing, and that Hamas cannot allow itself to appear as having abandoned the struggle against Israel for nothing.

Therefore, the conflict should be kept going, but avoiding outright war. That is a dangerous game; the freedom of movement it allows Islamic Jihad could lead to a rapid downward slide.

As for the Hamas-Fatah rivalry, although Egypt was expecting a Hamas request for renewed dialogue with Fatah, Hamas appears to feel it has plenty of time, continuing to act with unfounded presumptuousness, apparently dizzied by the success of the huge rally it organized in Gaza on Saturday.

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      1.   So The Government Abandons Tens Of Thousands Of Citizens 07:17  |  Ben Israel 18/12/08
      2.   No to the ceasefire : Hamas must be crushed. 10:49  |  Jean Van Daem 18/12/08
      3.   Blame? 11:31  |  Ad 18/12/08
      4.   Hamas "SEEMS" to want a cease fire? 11:52  |  Steve 18/12/08
      5.   The IDF started this round of tit for tat as it started last one 12:35  |  Michael 18/12/08
      6.   Notice none of the options included 13:14  |  H50 18/12/08
      7.   Options 13:46  |  ERSB 18/12/08
      8.   The Shell Game 14:44  |  Jasper 18/12/08
      9.   So give them a cease fire but with assassinations 15:01  |  dyinglikeflies 18/12/08
      10.   #5 actually, no, as your post itself indicates 15:20  |  McQueen 18/12/08
      11.   Analysis - the cease fire failed 15:23  |  Mark Lincoln 18/12/08
      12.   #5 Michael Shame on you! 15:25  |  Robert 18/12/08
      13.   12 Get your facts straight. 16:00  |  Michael 18/12/08
      14.   McQueen safe in NYC 10 16:08  |  Michael 18/12/08
      15.   11, Mark Lincoln 16:23  |  Harry 18/12/08
      16.   Michael - Your logic is SO flawed 16:43  |  SA 18/12/08
      17.   The word " Proportionality " should be taken 17:01  |  TOMY 18/12/08
      18.   SA 16 Israel`s logic is SO flawed 17:50  |  Michael 18/12/08
      19.   Michael in UK I hope you stay a while... 18:37  |  BBSNews 18/12/08
      20.   19 Thanks BBS. I try to be fair to both sides. 19:01  |  Michael 18/12/08
      21.   IDF SHOULD OCCUPY GAZA BUT NOT RETURN SETTLERS 20:03  |  Arik Silverman 18/12/08
      22.   Michael .. that is the best argument you can think of? 21:38  |  SA 18/12/08
      23.   22 Yes SA, the truth is always the best argument. 10:27  |  Michael 19/12/08
      24.   SA 22 Why can`t you accept SOME responsibility? 11:07  |  Michael 19/12/08
      25.   Truth and facts are irrelevant 12:11  |  Murray 19/12/08
      26.   Michael - I accept a maximum of half the responsibility .. 15:01  |  SA 19/12/08
      27.   Michael part 2 15:17  |  SA 19/12/08
      28.   Murray - I am not extreme right nor left .. I am TIRED 15:31  |  SA 19/12/08
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