Subscribe to Print Edition | Mon., December 15, 2008 Kislev 18, 5769 | | Israel Time: 10:55 (EST+7)   Back to Homepage web haaretz.com Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate GA 2008 Travel Week's End Anglo File

Washington is calling By Zvi Bar'el Tags: iran, israel news  Take the recent past as a guide. George Bush Sr. went to war against Iraq, and Bill Clinton was forced to deal with its consequences. George Bush Jr. went to war in Afghanistan and in Iraq - Obama will have to cope with their tail ends. His vision is taking shape: less army in Iraq, more soldiers in Afghanistan and proposed dialogue with Iran. The outlines of the new strategy are still blurry. American forces will remain in Iraq at least until 2011, which means the troop surge in Afghanistan will be limited unless Obama decides to pull a large number of soldiers out of the Iraq. As for Iran, it clearly could play an important role in how Iraq could function without the United States. There seems to be a much greater chance than ever before of mending the 30-year rift in U.S.-Iran relations. Obama's offer of dialogue comes as Iran prepares for elections in approximately six months' time, and dialogue with the U.S. is likely to help Mahmoud Ahmadinejad find favor with voters. If, despite the Iranian president's determination to continue to enrich uranium and to develop nuclear technology, Washington is prepared to offer him a new diplomacy containing much more than economic incentives to a country in deep economic crisis, then Ahmadinejad will be able to claim it as a personal achievement. More important, Obama's proposal cannot offer less than that made last year by the six negotiating countries, including Bush's U.S. That offer sees Iran, inter alia, as a partner to managing regional crises, from Iraq to Lebanon to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Advertisement The U.S. will not go to battle against Iran alone, and the international effort to tighten the sanctions against Iran could prove unrealistic. When Germany expands its trade with Iran; Turkey signs a memorandum of understanding with Iran over developing natural gas fields; Russia announces it wants rights to develop gas fields in Khuzestan Province; China cooperates with Iran on an enormous scale; and India is about to sign an agreement for a multibillion gas pipeline from Iran, then it would appear that any international agreement on sanctions would aspire to the lowest common denominator, low enough so as not to damage the economic interests of Iran's friends on the Security Council. Close advisers of Obama, lobbyists for megacorporations and U.S. congressional representatives who sent a letter to the Iranian parliament, inviting their counterparts to initiate a dialogue, are all vigorously preparing the ground for a U.S.-Iran rapprochement. Some of its proponents note that the Bush administration launched a dialogue with Iran over Iraq, and that the U.S. has a productive dialogue with Iran in the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. And the Baker-Hamilton report back in 2006 suggested initiating talks with Iran. What can Obama add to this, and on what will the Republican criticism of him be based if he adopts the recommendation of a report whose authors represent the Republican-Democratic consensus? At first glance Israel should be concerned about the new American strategy. Israeli critics say it shows an enervation of America and a willingness to make concessions to Iran without demanding anything in return. Their lexicon is identical to that of those opposing dialogue with Syria. Such a dialogue, they say, will erase the deterrent component of threatening to escalate sanctions and of hints about the use of force. It also neutralizes Israel's ability to issue threats against Iran or even to recruit international support against Iran, a focus of recent years that has even succeeded somewhat in convincing the international community about the extent of the Iranian threat. But it would be best to assume that Israel's distress will not change Obama's intentions, and that dialogue with Iran will be the new strategy. There is no cause for panic. Sanctions did not prevent war against Saddam Hussein, and the war against Iraq did not turn the Middle East into a calmer region. Dialogue could be a refreshing change. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Fighting hate online YouTube reaches out to the Anti-Defamation League for help in fighting hate clips. 'Camp Deheisheh' Two college students, Jewish and Muslim, practice peace in the West Bank refugee camp.   1.   Finally someone with brains 13:19  |  Helen Jones 14/12/08   2.   Regime change, or attitude change?. 14:13  |  khairi janbek 14/12/08   3.   BAKER-HAMILTON REPORT, REMEMBER? 14:17  |  indrajaya 14/12/08   4.   obama will be a catastrophe 14:54  |  avi 14/12/08   5.   i suggest obama is taught some british history 14:59  |  avi 14/12/08   6.   Obama: eliminate the root of the problem - Israel`s OCCUPATION! 15:41  |  Ivar 14/12/08   7.   Take this take... 16:12  |  Ben Lollo 14/12/08   8.   Are they still looking for the WMDs? 18:01  |  todo 14/12/08   9.   Talking to Iran 18:08  |  Moshe 14/12/08   10.   What Israel thinks about it is irrelevant 18:22  |  American in NY 14/12/08   11.   Wrong. Middle East *Is* Calmer with Saddam Gone 18:27  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 14/12/08   12.   American, Israeli interests not identical re Iran 18:50  |  Morris Valentine 14/12/08   13.   Ovadiah Ben Avraham 18:51  |  Persian Kitty 14/12/08   14.   Where the Iranian people come into this process? 19:23  |  Yuri 14/12/08   15.   #13 Persian: "got rid of the two enemies [of Iran]" 20:09  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 14/12/08   16.   #10 American: Iran`s Calls to Wipe Out Israel Make It Relevant 20:28  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 14/12/08   17.   !3 Perisan: I Think You Are Correct on Iran CW Usage 20:33  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 14/12/08   18.   Ovadiah Ben Avraham 21:07  |  Persian Kitty 14/12/08

Read & React Yehuda Ben-Meir: We must not give into Hamas demands Responses: 2 Supreme Court okays release of 230 Palestinian prisoners Responses: 4 Iraqi reporter throws shoe at Bush during president's farewell visit to Baghdad Responses: 34 Far-right Dutch MP: There is no moderate Islam Responses: 25 Umm al-Fahm Mayor: Rightists will never march through our city Responses: 66 More Headlines 10:43 Israel Supreme Court okays release of 230 Palestinian prisoners 04:00 As truce nears end, Israel tells Hamas: We will respond to Gaza fire 03:00 ANALYSIS / Who wants to end the Hamas-Israel ceasefire? 10:53 Two prominent Jewish foundations forced to close in wake of Madoff scandal 10:49 Israeli brothers suspected in multi-million dollar diamond fraud 04:53 'There is no moderate Islam,' says far-right Dutch legislator Geert Wilders 10:54 Iraqi reporter detained after throwing shoes at Bush during president's farewell visit to Baghdad 03:40 Umm al-Fahm Mayor: Rightists will never march even a meter through our city 09:47 Ex-MK jolts Meretz with upset primary win, as party ponders future 05:24 Jerusalem fire chief suspended over attempting to run a brothel 03:32 Gaza banks at risk of collapse unless Israel pumps more cash, diplomats warn 05:18 Despite lag in polls, Kadima recruiters hoping to capture ambitious number of seats 03:34 VIDEO / Police suspect mob link after man's hacked corpse found in Petah Tikvah Previous Editions Select Day 14 dec 12 dec 11 dec 10 dec 09 dec 08 dec 07 dec 05 dec 04 dec 03 dec 02 dec 01 dec

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