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Comments:  68
Last update - 08:37 08/12/2008
ANALYSIS / Israeli deterrence against Hamas is weakening
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Fatah, Hamas, Israel News 

Three numbers are at the heart of Israel's decision-making process over the Gaza Strip: 20, 40 and 70. Twenty-plus kilometers is the maximum range of Hamas' rockets in the Strip (which can hit Sderot, Ashkelon, Netivot and Kiryat Gat); 40 kilometers is the range they will be able to reach in the coming months, if missile production is not halted (Ofakim, Kiryat Malachi, Ashdod, Be'er Sheva and Yavneh will be at risk of attack); 70 kilometers is the range the Palestinians are striving to reach. At that point, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the Dan Region would be within range of Palestinian rockets.

Most Israeli decision makers assume the Gaza Strip will erupt sooner or later. The debate concerns whether the dozens of rockets that have been fired at the Negev in the last few weeks justifies immediate offensive action by the Israel Defense Forces. Those in favor are calling for a preemptive strike against Hamas.

Not surprisingly, the idea of renewed escalation has been raised in the election campaigns. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has called for an end to restraint; Vice Premier Haim Ramon contends that the Hamas government in Gaza must be brought down, and that this can happen even without a major military operation. Defense Minister Ehud Barak preaches "good judgment and responsibility."
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As for Ramon's apparent hint at the possibility of assassinating Hamas leaders, the question is who will take over? Wouldn't anarchy result, making a difficult target for Israeli strikes?

Hamas seems to be changing its policies. Hamas claims (and Israel denies) that the cease-fire agreement, which will end on December 19, must either expand to the West Bank or be be cancelled. Hamas knows that the chances this demand will be met are nil. However, by allowing the smaller factions to fire rockets, it seeks to attain an extension on the cease-fire from a position of strength. For example, to significantly reduce the economic siege on the Gaza Strip.

Hamas therefore is considering ratcheting up hostilities ahead of December 19, possibly including massive rocket fire, and even an attempted "strategic" terror attack like the abduction of a soldier. Hamas has chosen controlled escalation to counter criticism by groups like Islamic Jihad and local Al-Qaida affiliates. But the siege has taken its toll. Two-thirds of the population live on international food aid.

The Id al-Adha holiday, which begins today, will not be particularly festive in Gaza. When comparing the situation in the West Bank to that in Gaza, Hamas does not come out looking favorable. Israel's permission for Israeli Arabs to visit the West Bank for the holiday will be good for businesses, and 230 prisoners are slated to be released from Israeli jails. Hamas needs an achievement to counter Fatah, like a cease-fire on favorable terms.

Some of the IDF brass disagree with Barak's stance that there are two possibilities - complete quiet or all-out war. Some want more freedom to take offensive action. Even those who object, as we do, to major action must concede that Israeli deterrence against Hamas is weakening.
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  1.   Israel has never had deterrence against Hamas 02:58  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/08
  2.   Hamas is not run by nice guys 03:08  |  Mark Lincoln 08/12/08
  3.   Ehud Barak 03:11  |  Mark Spund 08/12/08
  4.   Is the siege of Gaza working? 03:21  |  Manny Goldstein 08/12/08
  5.   HAMAS IS DYING OF LAUGHTER AT ISRAELI LEADERS INEPTITUDE 03:44  |  Jorge 08/12/08
  6.   Invade Gaza-Route Hamas- Peace Prevails 04:45  |  Baruch Gold 08/12/08
  7.   #1 is right on the money... 04:50  |  jo 08/12/08
  8.   Kadima has been a failure 04:56  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 08/12/08
  9.   Islamists can never compromise will never coexist 05:26  |  GZLives 08/12/08
  10.   Feed Hamas enough rope 06:23  |  Peter Williams 08/12/08
  11.   #1 Mark Lincoln, Tony Blair today said on CNN Wolf Blitzer`s show 06:25  |  Smadar 08/12/08
  12.   Invite Osama to Houston for Tea and Biscuits (#1) 06:59  |  Steve 08/12/08
  13.   Mark Lincoln 07:00  |  GPS 08/12/08
  14.   All Because Of The "Disengagement" 07:08  |  Yishai Kohen 08/12/08
  15.   To #1 Sounds leftist appeasment to me. 07:14  |  Levi 08/12/08
  16.   hamas 07:18  |  a jew 08/12/08
  17.   Barak decides not to decide 07:58  |  Mike 08/12/08
  18.   The restoration of Israel`s deterrence factor. 08:37  |  Jean Van Daem 08/12/08
  19.   M.Lincoln Hamas peace initiatives being? 08:53  |  PETER SM 08/12/08
  20.   almost the whole nation is disgusted by our so called government! 09:15  |  redmike 08/12/08
  21.   It won`t be the powder puffs of the IDF 09:26  |  Clickfool 08/12/08
  22.   90% for Bibi in the next elections 09:26  |  former Liberal 08/12/08
  23.   4Give them credit, Hamas did try the `political` process 09:45  |  lydia 08/12/08
  24.   Haaretz where`s the proof of increasing missile range? 09:50  |  Michael 08/12/08
  25.   For Jean van Daem # 13 09:56  |  Clickfool 08/12/08
  26.   LYDIA PAL.people elected "no peace ever" Hamas 10:37  |  PETER SM 08/12/08
  27.   MICHAEL UK No need for alarm at all. 10:51  |  PETER SM 08/12/08
  28.   Never any Israeli deterrence against Gaza 12:19  |  ARA 08/12/08
  29.   What to do about the "neighbor" to the South? 12:52  |  sandra chitayat 08/12/08
  30.   Response from Smadar of Toronto, #11. 13:34  |  sandra chitayat 08/12/08
  31.   Mark #3 13:37  |  Esther 08/12/08
  32.   Nu, yala!... what are we waiting for....? 13:48  |  Esther 08/12/08
  33.   clickfool think british troops traipsing into iranian captivity 14:58  |  brighton rock 08/12/2008
  34.   esther no imperfect peace is on offer 14:37  |  harzion 08/12/08
  35.   clickfool "too much affluence" 14:41  |  brighton rock 08/12/08
  36.   For Brighton Rock, the John Wayne of Talkback # 33 14:50  |  Clickfool 08/12/08
  37.   The "success" of Israel`s blockade of Gaza.... 14:58  |  Esther 08/12/08
  38.   ISRAEL IS A LAUGHING STOCK 14:59  |  indrajaya 08/12/08
  39.   israeli deterrence 15:13  |  harzion 08/12/08
  40.   Targeting leaders. 15:49  |  Lou Medel 08/12/08
  41.   #8 Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 15:52  |  John Allen 08/12/08
  42.   Of course, Hamas protected by Political Correctness 15:53  |  Joe Sittizen 08/12/08
  43.   clickfool making excuses for your traipsing soldiers 16:05  |  brighton rock 08/12/08
  44.   clickfool what about the para platoon captured in its entirety 16:07  |  brighton rock 08/12/08
  45.   #1 Mr. Lincoln Bask in the sun today tomorrow the thunderstorms 19:52  |  Big Sur 08/12/08
  46.   #21 Cliky unable to wrestle with his armchair 19:57  |  Big Sur 08/12/08
  47.   Mao said.... 20:10  |  Yamin Salahi 08/12/08
  48.   For Big Sur # 46 23:33  |  Clickfool 08/12/08
  49.   indrajaya ready to make more martyrs by remote control 23:40  |  Joe Sittizen 08/12/08
  50.   harel and haaretz need to make up their mind 23:53  |  Arie 08/12/08
  51.   to lydia in brisbane:Hitler was also democratically elected 23:55  |  Arie 08/12/08
  52.   What Is An Illegal Occupier To Do? 00:28  |  Gray 09/12/08
  53.   What Is An Illegal Occupier To Do? 00:28  |  Gray 09/12/08
  54.   ISRAEL, THE WORLD IS LAUGHING AT YOU! BOMB YOUR ENEMIES!!!!!!! 00:46  |  Jim a Gentile 09/12/08
  55.   Big Sur w/ big mouth hiding in USA? you are isreali? 00:57  |  oh really? 09/12/08
  56.   Smadar - Tony Blair 02:30  |  Mark Lincoln 09/12/08
  57.   Peter SM I said NOTHING about 02:38  |  Mark Lincoln 09/12/08
  58.   Does not 40 years of failure tell you something? 02:42  |  Mark Lincoln 09/12/08
  59.   Joe sitizn what you seem to forget about Israel 03:04  |  Dutch 09/12/08
  60.   Dying people can NOT be detered 04:09  |  spyguy 09/12/08
  61.   This is why Livni, Barak and Kadima cannot be elected 07:15  |  Judea 09/12/08
  62.   Who are "we" Amos Harel? 08:10  |  Proud Israeli 09/12/08
  63.   We will never surrender to jewish nazism 08:49  |  S.Awaad 09/12/08
  64.   Aw c`mon, Dutch. I live here. How could I not know? 09:09  |  Joe Sittizen 09/12/08
  65.   #62, Proud Israeli, very well said 09:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/12/08
  66.   MarkL, Hamas has achieved nothing 09:38  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/12/08
  67.   This article is superfluous. 11:47  |  Jerusalem Jew 09/12/08
  68.   Hamas 13:42  |  Paul Macdonald 09/12/08
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