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Last update - 12:15 28/11/2008 There will be friction By Roni Bart Tags: Palestinians, Barack Obama  Were Israel not beginning an election campaign, its government could take advantage of the next five months to influence the new U.S. administration while it is still formulating basic policy. In fact, the opposite will occur: When a new Israeli government takes office some five months from now, the expectations of the Obama administration will have largely crystallized already. The first meeting between the president and the prime minister will almost certainly be warm and cordial, but sources of friction already exist. Let's examine two of them - the Iranian and Palestinian issues. The inclination of the president-elect and the Democrats in general to engage in dialogue with international opponents surfaces poignantly in the Iran question. Barack Obama has called for direct talks with Iran, that are not contingent on a suspension of uranium enrichment. In this, he has deviated not only from the policy of the Bush administration, but also from that of the Europeans. Although Obama regards Iran as a regional and global threat whose possession of nuclear weapons is "unacceptable," he believes that the United States must demonstrate that it has made every possible diplomatic effort before resorting to force. In interviews, Obama has been unwilling to address the possibility that diplomacy and sanctions will fail. At the same time, he has criticized not only the Republicans for bellicose and aggressive rhetoric, but also Senator Hillary Clinton, his nominee for secretary of state. These are additional signs of a more Democratic-European-"Western" approach, one that is likely to weaken the latent military threat - and with it the effectiveness of diplomacy. Advertisement The potential friction with Israel on this issue could be heard several days after the U.S. election, when Israeli foreign minister and prime ministerial candidate Tzipi Livni noted that in the Middle East, willingness to engage in direct and unconditional talks after failing to achieve goals through sanctions would be interpreted as weakness. Replying to an explicit question as to whether Israel supports Obama's policy, Livni answered that it did not. However Obama decides to proceed, a long time will likely pass before Iran suspends or halts its nuclear program, or before the Obama administration recognizes that these processes have exhausted their usefulness. Iran has already demonstrated its great expertise in dragging out negotiations and in exploiting this extra time for continued technological progress. And it will be very difficult for the Israeli government to wait indefinitely. When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Obama is positioned in the heart of the traditional American pro-Israel consensus. He supports a two-state solution. He is committed to helping Israel achieve peace, but will not impose a settlement on it. He opposes the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees, and rules out Hamas as a negotiating partner until it meets the international community's well-known conditions. Nonetheless, Obama's overall record paints a less rosy picture from Israel's viewpoint and gives reason for concern. First, among Obama's veteran team of advisors (in contrast to Dennis Ross and others, who joined later in the presidential campaign) are people who focus on human rights, global development and international cooperation. This posture generally regards Israeli policy (combined with the excessive power of the pro-Israeli lobby) as the main problem in the Middle East in general, rather than radical Islam or Iran. Second, Obama's public statements reflect a significantly more "evenhanded" position than is characteristic of the American political map in general. He was the only candidate in either party who did not express support for the separation fence, which he chose to describe as "another example of the neglect of this administration in brokering peace." Obama also used the phrase "cycle of violence," rather than the accepted wording among supporters of Israel, "Palestinian violence and Israeli response." Third, after the failure of the Camp David summit, he criticized the Clinton administration for its unconditional and one-sided support of Israel. Obama currently regards the Clinton parameters of December 2000, which exceeded the Camp David positions, as a point of departure for a permanent settlement. Finally, where the diplomatic process is concerned, Obama said his administration would ask Israel to share responsibility for changing the status quo, and would help "Israelis to identify and strengthen those partners who are truly committed to peace." This is a diplomatic expression for the idea of exerting pressure. Indeed, when Obama talks about concrete measures, he lists only demands of Israel, such as alleviating pressure on Palestinian daily life and freezing settlement construction. He mentions no parallel demands of the Palestinians, such as a need for them to fight terrorism or undertake democratic governmental reforms. All this suggests that as part of his general view of American global priorities, Obama will be more attentive to Palestinian rights than Israel's security needs. He will probably bring a greater sense of urgency to the diplomatic process, with less patience for Israeli foot-dragging in fulfilling its obligations in the diplomatic process. This creates potential friction with a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, but one headed by Livni, too. In addition, it can be expected that the Obama administration will enthusiastically support Israel-Syria negotiations, if Israel's next government wishes to continue them. Indeed, herein lies the president-elect's basic diplomatic approach: He himself wishes to engage in dialogue with Syria, mostly about Iraq and Iran. He has also explicitly stated that if Israel decides that its national interest lies in talking with Syria, America has a duty to lend a hand. In the bilateral sphere, a continuation of very good relations can also be expected. Despite the economic crisis, Obama has said that he will not cut foreign aid in general, but will refrain from increasing it. It cannot be ruled out, however, that Congress will insist on reducing foreign aid (and cut aid to Israel in the process). Dr. Roni Bart is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), in Tel Aviv. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A "gesture of dignity" Israeli envoy to Venezuela departs after being expelled by Chavez over Gaza op A voodoo initiative Voodoo priests in Benin pray for Israeli-Palestinian peace.   1.   Oh No!!!!!!! 08:51  |  George W 28/11/08   2.   Ah, but maybe this is good 08:57  |  Talker 28/11/08   3.   Dr. Barts` complaints 09:22  |  MichaelN 28/11/08   4.   1 said it all 09:23  |  J.A 28/11/08   5.   The rain after the rainbow ! 09:28  |  Akram Zekaria 28/11/08   6.   Obama Can Fuss All He Wants, Who Cares 09:30  |  Dav Lev 28/11/08   7.   give the man a chance 09:35  |  Capt Ahab 28/11/08   8.   Ask not what Obama will do for Israel, ask what Israelis can do.. 09:59  |  Nathaniel 28/11/08   9.   Faulty logic by a paranoid writer 10:04  |  Ms. Stein 28/11/08   10.   John Hagee could become U.S. president tomorrow..... 10:04  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/11/08   11.   sounds to me obama has it all pretty lined up in perspective 10:05  |  eric 28/11/08   12.   What a revolutionary idea - talks without pre-conditions 10:07  |  Clickfool 28/11/08   13.   We give, we yearn to give, they ask us to give 10:28  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 28/11/08   14.   Team Not Final, Policy Not Final 10:31  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   15.   George W P1 10:32  |  TonyL 28/11/08   16.   George W P2 10:39  |  TonyL 28/11/08   17.   Israel can`t solve its own problems. End of story. 10:43  |  Michael 28/11/08   18.   Roni Bart, thank you for your ablity to discern facts and 10:48  |  David 28/11/08   19.   Eh, Let`s see, who is the occupier, and who is the victim 10:58  |  Casual Observer 28/11/08   20.   #1 said it all 11:30  |  N 28/11/08   21.   OBAMA 12:03  |  HM 28/11/08   22.   An accurate and worrisome analysis 12:24  |  Shalom Freedman 28/11/08   23.   Wake up call - Israel is just NOT important to Obama 12:58  |  Manny Goldstein 28/11/08   24.   Likely Additional Demands of PA 12:58  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   25.   Obama Will Just Continue Current U.S. Policy 12:59  |  Jeff Northridge 28/11/08   26.   WHY SHOULD OBAMA DEMAND ANYTHING OF PALESTINIANS 13:10  |  indrajaya 28/11/08   27.   #17 michael in hot pursuit of his cloud cuckoo world 13:27  |  victor hardman 28/11/08   28.   25 Jeff N - Too Much Pressure 13:35  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   29.   Bottom line is that Israel decides it`s future 13:44  |  Ilan 28/11/08   30.   What Obama? Get ready for Hillary,who slobbered over Suha Arafat 13:50  |  Dudu 28/11/08   31.   #1 George W. Wrong 14:00  |  observer 28/11/08   32.   Only the Taba Parameters 14:31  |  Sharif Hafez 28/11/08   33.   Talks just aimed at getting as close as possible to Pal demands 15:06  |  Sam 28/11/08   34.   observer? our indians are all citizens with equal rights 15:09  |  not ethnicly cleanse 28/11/08   35.   US Native Americans are FULL citizens 15:46  |  spyguy 28/11/08   36.   It is called Appeasement 15:50  |  B 28/11/08   37.   #22, Shalom (!) Freedman 16:11  |  Fritz 28/11/08   38.   Bound to Happen 16:22  |  Howard 28/11/08   39.   To George W... 16:37  |  Ariel 28/11/08   40.   indrajaya # 26 Because Of The Roadmap 17:52  |  Jeff Northridge 28/11/08   41.   #25 Jeff N 17:57  |  janet 28/11/08   42.   #22 Shalom Freedman 18:08  |  janet 28/11/08   43.   Why does Israel keep letting U.S. Presidents meddle & manipulate? 18:08  |  Yacov 28/11/08   44.   #5 Akram 18:12  |  janet 28/11/08   45.   No. 28, observer 18:20  |  W 28/11/08   46.   Who is the occupier? Israel or Palestinians 18:21  |  MA 28/11/08   47.   Pensive in Boston, MA 18:22  |  Mike 28/11/08   48.   read and learn 18:26  |  teacher 28/11/08   49.   What a colonial mindset suggesting Obama make demands on victims 18:42  |  Dutch 28/11/08   50.   To Teacher 18:47  |  Sam Soul 28/11/08   51.   # 31, YACOV 18:50  |  indrajaya 28/11/08   52.   What do you expect from oBama. Since when has any muslim ever 18:52  |  Avram 28/11/08   53.   What is Israel`s Roadmap for the U.S., Russia, France, etc., etc. 19:01  |  Bennie 28/11/08   54.   Indrajaya 19:02  |  Ben 28/11/08   55.   # 29, JEFF NORTHRIDGE 19:08  |  indrajaya 28/11/08   56.   Good news 19:22  |  David 28/11/08   57.   A good start 19:34  |  Kumar 28/11/08   58.   # 42, BEN 19:38  |  indrajaya 28/11/08   59.   There will be friction 19:43  |  n_erber 28/11/08   60.   I guess Obama deserves it 19:48  |  Mark Lincoln 28/11/08   61.   Mirror 19:54  |  Ussishkin 28/11/08   62.   Obama and Israel 19:55  |  American 28/11/08   63.   Shalom Freedman ,The only reality Obama needs to show 20:04  |  Dutch 28/11/08   64.   friction and obama 20:05  |  charlie rome 28/11/08   65.   There Will Be Friction 20:13  |  Po Boy 28/11/08   66.   Sam Soul #38 20:22  |  Jasper 28/11/08   67.   Oh honestly 20:24  |  Colin Wright 28/11/08   68.   Dav Lev 20:32  |  Thomas Loftis 28/11/08   69.   Obama is black so... 20:42  |  Jose Marcio 28/11/08   70.   The Still `Under Construction` Plan 20:55  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   71.   The Still `Under Construction` Plan - 2 20:57  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   72.   Thomas Loftis - Wow! 21:00  |  Mark Lincoln 28/11/08   73.   The Still `Under Construction` Plan - 2 21:01  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/11/08   74.   Stop Worrying About Obama Israel 21:09  |  Yosemite 28/11/08   75.   Only The GUESSING Game...... 21:17  |  Dagma 28/11/08   76.   To Jose Marcio # 57 - But Obama is not full black 21:30  |  Dagma 28/11/08   77.   Psssshhhhh! 21:51  |  JJ 28/11/08   78.   Who is surprised? 22:01  |  don muntean 28/11/08   79.   The nuclear issue. 22:05  |  Nigel Molesworth 28/11/08   80.   Only a GUESSING Game...... 22:12  |  Dagma [second time] 28/11/08   81.   #63 Dagma 22:16  |  janet 28/11/08   82.   Please don`t turn Isreal into ... 22:22  |  Edith 28/11/08   83.   I agree with nr 1 22:27  |  Edith 28/11/08   84.   #6 Dav Lev 22:31  |  janet 28/11/08   85.   #30 Poor Jeff 22:34  |  janet 28/11/08   86.   #44, Ben.... 22:36  |  Silvienne 28/11/08   87.   Mike in Boston 22:42  |  janet 28/11/08   88.   #29 Ariel 22:54  |  janet 28/11/08   89.   #38 Long post, no merit Teacher 23:08  |  janet 28/11/08   90.   #42 Avram 23:11  |  janet 28/11/08   91.   chalavei !! 00:00  |  David 29/11/08   92.   Faulty facts by an ignorant Ms Stein #9 00:08  |  I 29/11/08   93.   Obama will not sell out Isarel but 01:16  |  Max 29/11/08   94.   It must stop 01:21  |  Frank 29/11/08   95.   No. 35, W u r Wrong 01:53  |  observer 29/11/08   96.   palastine/israel is what?mad at obama. 02:20  |  billy jack 29/11/08   97.   Obama and EU 03:06  |  Steve J 29/11/08   98.   Israel`s hard decision 03:24  |  Mark Lincoln 29/11/08   99.   oh Israel 03:56  |  Adam 29/11/08   100.   The up-keep of Israel is getting/is too costly for the US. 04:01  |  Maureen Ann 29/11/08   101.   #98 I am not sure that is true, Mark Lincoln 04:48  |  Johnboy 29/11/08   102.   So? 05:09  |  Mark Marshall 29/11/08   103.   Hey Roni.. Demanding My foot... 05:15  |  ALI 29/11/08   104.   Janet 05:17  |  Mike in Boston 29/11/08   105.   # 95 to observer re: "natives" 05:24  |  eric 29/11/08   106.   Oh Yacov, Yacov 05:52  |  Otto Rand 29/11/08   107.   There will be friction 05:55  |  vincent 29/11/08   108.   #119 - Casual Observer 05:59  |  Mark 29/11/08   109.   #26 Indy 06:23  |  Marc 29/11/08   110.   #100 maureen 06:29  |  Marc 29/11/08   111.   Are you serious? 06:46  |  ab 29/11/08   112.   #79 the nuclear issue... 07:18  |  izak 29/11/08   113.   A dangerous idea but nevertheless 07:18  |  Don 29/11/08   114.   Dagma - Exactly 07:49  |  Mark of Lewiston 29/11/08   115.   a little bit more evenhanded 07:57  |  rm 29/11/08   116.   yearn to give Margie? 08:01  |  rm 29/11/08   117.   Obama on Iran 08:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/11/08   118.   Obama and human rights 08:56  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/11/08   119.   The Easiest Way to a Solution - UN Resolution 242 Reaffirmed 09:17  |  Nostradamus 29/11/08   120.   117 Cipora - Obama Also Studied Reagan 09:17  |  Mark of Lewiston 29/11/08   121.   #105 eric and the defense of the natives of Canaan/Palestine 09:42  |  hala 29/11/08   122.   why do you worry Maureen 10:22  |  Zelkha 29/11/08   123.   #120, Mark of Lewiston 10:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/11/08   124.   rm 10:32  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 29/11/08   125.   OK, so Dr. Roni Bart wrote an academic paper... 12:48  |  Esther 29/11/08   126.   Margie Tel Aviv 12:52  |  Tareq 29/11/08   127.   # 121 thanks for your response my post, hala 13:00  |  eric 29/11/08   128.   for 118 Cipora 15:23  |  chasaboy 29/11/08   129.   #105 to eric 15:24  |  observer 29/11/08   130.   Cipora - if only back channel 16:18  |  Mark Lincoln 29/11/08   131.   #117 Cipora 16:40  |  janet 29/11/08   132.   Dav Lev & Thomas Loftis: More Israel First, Lost Tribesmen 18:37  |  Gray 29/11/08   133.   123 Cipora - Missing My Point 18:44  |  Mark of Lewiston 29/11/08   134.   To Jesper 18:47  |  Sam Soul 29/11/08   135.   0bama and Israel 19:09  |  HermannKuntz 29/11/08   136.   Reality hits the Middle East 19:41  |  Dennis MI VI 29/11/08   137.   You are right of course, but 20:05  |  Bitin Dawg 29/11/08   138.   This article proves that Israel`s next government is the last 20:56  |  American 29/11/08   139.   96 Mark Licoln, Re: Depopulating the territories 21:55  |  Dutch 29/11/08   140.   To Cipora Julianna Cohn: Talking to Iran 22:34  |  Otto Rand 29/11/08   141.   `Demands` -- It`s curious 22:38  |  Colin Wright 29/11/08   142.   US cannot mix in religion issues:Israel 22:47  |  sam 29/11/08   143.   #12 Clickfool: talks without preconditions 23:27  |  Jewboy 29/11/08   144.   Eric - does the nation of Israel exist? 23:38  |  Jewboy 29/11/08   145.   Obama has enough problems in US to deal with 23:45  |  Jewboy 29/11/08   146.   Dr. Bart is a Baschekor in PROPAGANDA and a Master of SPIN 00:26  |  Job 30/11/08   147.   "Among Obama`s Advisors are people who focus on Human Rights" 00:38  |  IS THAT BAD? 30/11/08   148.   Bart fails to Understand: ISRAEL OCCUPIES PALESTINE & GOLAN! 00:47  |  It`s So Simple! 30/11/08   149.   Years of neglect 01:15  |  Baz Mann 30/11/08   150.   see why it`s troublesome 02:03  |  curious george 30/11/08   151.   spyguy re: FULL citizens 02:11  |  Jasper 30/11/08   152.   Israel Stealing Land 02:33  |  Jasper 30/11/08   153.   #144 "distinct culture" of Israel? 03:08  |  hala 30/11/08   154.   Two great posts CJK 03:09  |  Peter Williams 30/11/08   155.   #152 It does not wash, Jasper. 03:23  |  Jasper 30/11/08   156.   #133, Mark of Lewiston 03:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/11/08   157.   #10, Otto Rand, "there is no damage in talking" 03:34  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/11/08   158.   #154, Peter Williams 03:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/11/08   159.   # 129 to observer re: middle-east (2nd try) 04:21  |  eric 30/11/08   160.   Sam Soul #38 04:40  |  Jasper 30/11/08   161.   #156 Cipora, what is this "p5+1" nonsense? 04:46  |  Johnboy 30/11/08   162.   # 144 to jewboy re: sanity check 04:53  |  eric 30/11/08   163.   Obama is Pro Israel compared to Pro Palestine 05:16  |  ELIAS KHOURY 30/11/08   164.   Hala - so there is no culture in USA? 05:20  |  Jewboy 30/11/08   165.   To Cipora Juliana Cohn 05:26  |  Otto Rand 30/11/08   166.   Mark Lincoln #98, one difference re Annexing 05:27  |  ELIAS KHOURY 30/11/08   167.   Hala #153 regarding Israel`s distinct culture 05:36  |  ELIAS KHOURY 30/11/08   168.   #148 Not So Simple! 05:49  |  Bruce 30/11/08   169.   I agree with #1 05:57  |  sal-USA 30/11/08   170.   CHAOS THEORY AND OBAMA 06:04  |  Barry S. Roffman 30/11/08   171.   BRUCE #168 NO YOU HAVE IT WRONG, EVERY TIME 06:12  |  ELIAS KHOURY 30/11/08   172.   To CJK (#157) 06:14  |  Morris Valentine 30/11/08   173.   #172, Morris Valentine 06:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/11/08   174.   #161, johnny, p5+1 06:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 30/11/08   175.   #174 I understand what you *mean* by it, Cipora 07:28  |  Johnboy 30/11/08   176.   #164 "Common" culture of USA 08:26  |  hala 30/11/08   177.   #167 ELIAS KHOURY and cultural pilfering 08:33  |  hala 30/11/08   178.   #157 ELIAS KHOURY have you read Frazier`s "The Golden Bough?" 09:15  |  hala 30/11/08   179.   points well-taken, eric 09:35  |  observer 30/11/08   180.   # 179 to observer re: israel (2nd try) 11:36  |  eric 30/11/08   181.   Keep the country as one and share 14:00  |  W 30/11/08   182.   I share the same views 17:26  |  Chaarles Emelogu 30/11/08   183.   To CJK (#173) 19:00  |  Morris Valentine 30/11/08   184.   Morris Valentine 21:25  |  Peter Williams 30/11/08   185.   To Peter Williams (#184) 02:13  |  Morris Valentine 01/12/08   186.   Morris Valentine 07:07  |  Peter Williams 01/12/08   187.   So true!! 23:16  |  Walfish 01/12/08   188.   Solution for smuggling tunnels 07:44  |  Fixer 11/01/09

Read & React UN Security Council calls for immediate Gaza truce Responses: 173 UN: IDF officers admit Gaza school shelling was by mistake Responses: 133 Akiva Eldar: Israeli rejection of Gaza deal may topple Abbas Responses: 71 Gideon Levy: Those who justify Gaza war justify all of its crimes Responses: 275 Bernard Avishai, Sam Bahour: Israel playing into Hamas' hands Responses: 71 More Headlines 03:00 Security cabinet: Israel to continue Gaza op to pressure Egypt 07:59 IDF: Hamas men beginning to desert; army steps up Gaza op 08:03 Report: U.S. spurned Israel plan for attack on Iran nuke reactor 02:36 Israel disappointed by UN resolution that avoids key demands on Gaza 04:54 ANALYSIS / UN Gaza truce resolution was serious diplomatic malfunction 07:27 ANALYSIS / Synching IDF and government over Gaza 02:53 Investigation shows errant mortar hit UN building 22:58 Israel and Hamas are both paying a steep price in Gaza 18:20 Get up to the minute coverage of the warfare in Gaza directly to your email 07:40 Meshal: No Gaza truce until IDF ends offensive, opens border crossings 02:45 Gideon Levy / My hero of the Gaza war 01:17 IDF uses live ammunition to break up West Bank demonstrations 02:58 Gaza residents: IDF troops posing as Hamas men 04:21 Study: South to recover more quickly from war than north after Lebanon 08:10 Gaza rocket hits car in Be'er Sheva; two people suffer shock 06:43 Palestinian security forces break up Gaza protest 23:28 ANALYSIS / Israel should have embraced the UN's Gaza truce proposal 04:56 Egypt, Jordan resist calls to recall ambassadors 02:58 Text of UN Security Council resolution for Gaza cease-fire Previous Editions Select Day 09 jan 08 jan 07 jan 06 jan 05 jan 04 jan 02 jan 01 jan 31 dec 30 dec 29 dec 28 dec

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