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Last update - 12:51 23/11/2008 The long, critical summer By Amos Harel Tags: Iran, nuclear weapons  This is the item without which no office at the General Staff can be complete - a framed photograph of three Israel Air Force F-15s flying over Auschwitz around five years ago. The inscription reads: "The air force in the skies above Auschwitz, in the name of the State of Israel and the Jewish people. To remember, not to forget. To rely only on ourselves. Major General Eliezer Shkedi." Shkedi, an air force commander until last May and the son of a Holocaust survivor, introduced a welcome move to make his officers more aware of the Holocaust. And in the past few years, the Israel Defense Forces has extended its "Witnesses in Uniform" project, in which thousands of officers and soldiers visit the site of the extermination camp in Poland every year. "Never again" is an important message, but it is doubtful whether its only significance today is that Israel must bomb Iran now. Advertisement Senior officers well versed in the deployment for the nuclear threat claim that for years Israel did not pay enough attention to the option of an attack on Iran. It is true that the air force carried out extensive exercises, but other critical aspects were overlooked. The defense establishment woke up to the problem and began dealing with it more thoroughly only about three years ago. The Israeli military option must be put on the table, if only to increase the international community's bargaining power in its contacts with Iran. There must be a genuine feeling in the world that Israel has the military capability of taking care of the problem itself, at least in part. Every few months, the IDF distributes to its senior staff a document entitled "Know what to answer" - responses to questions an officer is likely to be asked in public or private. A few months ago, the army corrected the text of the response about Iran. Now the stance is that "the free world has to act decisively against the nuclear threat. It seems the diplomatic efforts are not achieving their goal." Therefore, the document says, the army must build itself up for all possible scenarios and train for them. On the other hand, a long list of questions must be answered before a decision is made on a military move: Is there enough intelligence about Iran's scattered nuclear sites? Does Israel have the ability to carry out a prolonged attack, wave after wave, and is the home front ready to absorb an Iranian response? What would the price of an Israeli failure be? (When it is clear that even if the action is successful, Iran will show off its operating centrifuges the next day, in an attempt to prove that its nuclear program was not disrupted.) Is it possible at all to act without coordinating with the United States, as long as the American army is stationed in Iraq and its acquiescence is needed for creating an air corridor for the mission? Until the beginning of this year, the Israeli leadership still entertained the hope that the Bush administration, on the eve of the changing of the guard, would relieve it of all these unpleasant dilemmas. The outgoing president, it was said, is a true friend committed to Israel's security. Therefore, before he hands over the reins to an enigma by the name of Barack Obama, he will listen to his Christian conscience and finish off the deal in Tehran. Or he will give the green light for an Israeli attack while ensuring the necessary coordination during the transition period. A series of American messages, both overt and covert, were required to wean Israel off this fantasy. The chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, said openly in July that an Israeli attack on Iran would be a dangerous step that would undermine stability in the Middle East. A few months later, when Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi visited Mullen, the Americans reiterated their stance in an indirect way. Ashkenazi was taken on a non-routine working visit to the Walter Reed military hospital in Washington. The hosts fixed a meeting for the Israeli chief of staff in a ward filled with soldiers who lost limbs in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. At the end of the tour, members of the Israeli entourage wondered about the visit's purpose; what the Americans were hinting at. The most reasonable explanation was that the Americans were trying to imply that they were deep in the mire of two wars and did not have soldiers for other unnecessary battles. Don't start another war for us with Iran. Against the backdrop of these developments came a rare public appearance by Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, chief of Military Intelligence, at the annual lecture in memory of Moshe Dayan last Monday. Yadlin mentioned some positive details amid the gloomy picture. The new president, Obama, who has the support of the international community, will have much greater bargaining power than Bush, who had tried to pressure Iran to stop, he said. The drop in the price of oil as a consequence of the global economic crisis puts Tehran in an uncomfortable position. If tough sanctions are put into effect, there could still be results. These remarks indicate that there has been a postponement in the timetable. It seems 2008 will no longer be the decisive year regarding the Iranian plan. The decisions will be taken next year, and from Israel's point of view, despite politicians' temptations to make bold declarations during the election campaign, the correct approach appears to be to tone down comments on the subject. There is no reason whatsoever to disregard the hatred of Israel oozing from Tehran, but there is also no need to insist constantly that we are the sole target of Iranian missiles, which are also aimed elsewhere in the region. The critical period regarding the Iranian nuclear question will be the middle of next year, after the new U.S. administration settles in and the Iranian elections in June, a short while before Iran's efforts to achieve a bomb are realized. Until then, there is time for the diplomat Bookmark to del.icio.us   Trailblazer Haula Abu-Bakar named first Arab female professor in Israel. Hills of hostility A stranger coming to Hebron Saturday would be confused.   1.   IRAN 14:16  |  SaGo 23/11/08   2.   From likelihood of a first strike, Iran a US, not Israel, problem 15:40  |  David Turner 23/11/08   3.   nOTHING WILL CHANGE! 06:13  |  HAL 24/11/08   4.   david turner stop your nonsense! 06:15  |  juan 24/11/08   5.   SHey Juan, its about preemption, not target or intent. 15:51  |  David Turner 24/11/08

Read & React Yossi Sarid: Is Shas' Rabbi Ovadia Yosef also an ass? Responses: 27 Amir Oren: Peace may come down to this - Obama or Bibi? Responses: 13 IDF: Retaking Gaza will cost Israel NIS 17 million a day Responses: 84 Report: Gaza militants agree to cease rocket fire if Israel opens crossings Responses: 54 Poll: 70% of Israeli Arab women think slaps are not domestic abuse Responses: 34 More Headlines 15:09 Iran claims it dismantled spy network allegedly linked to Mossad 15:11 Barak: Hezbollah has 42,000 rockets, some can hit Dimona 14:07 Israel opens Gaza border to let in humanitarian aid 15:42 Iraqi court acquits legislator for making trip to Israel 11:04 Aide: Ex-IDF chief did not call for Ahmadinejad to be killed 15:54 U.S. Jews face Thanksgiving challenges amid kosher food industry turmoil 12:38 'Scrubs' star Zach Braff falls in love with Tel Aviv 16:03 VIDEO / How much foreign policy experience does Hillary Clinton actually have? 13:29 Settler leader: Hebron evacuation will be met with force greater than Amona 13:39 IDF: Retaking Gaza would cost NIS 17 million a day 14:53 Assad awards convicted murderer Kuntar country's highest medal 12:34 Meretz hires Obama e-team, as Knesset campaigns go online 13:49 Iran: If polled, Britons would say Israel is greatest Mideast threat 13:39 900 Palestinian troops to deploy in Bethlehem ahead of Christmas 11:46 Last supper: Bush and Olmert to dine together at White House 14:27 Egyptian police kill African migrant along border with Israel 12:31 VIDEO / Jordan's Queen Rania wins YouTube Visionary Award 02:28 Poll: 70% of Israeli Arab women think slaps are not domestic abuse Previous Editions Select Day 23 nov 21 nov 20 nov 19 nov 18 nov 17 nov 16 nov 14 nov 13 nov 12 nov 11 nov 10 nov

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