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Defense establishment paper: Golan for Syria peace, plan for Iran strike
By Barak Ravid
Tags: iran, syria, peace 

A defense establishment paper recommends making contingency plans to attack Iran, reaching an agreement with Syria that includes leaving the Golan Heights and preventing new elections in the Palestinian Authority, even if this means a confrontation with the United States.

The paper will be presented to the cabinet next month as part of the National Security Council's annual situation assessment.

The document warns that in 2009, Israel may find itself facing a nuclear Iran virtually alone, following a rapprochement between the U.S., Iran and the Arab world that would also undermine Israel's military superiority.
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Additionally, it warns of a possible collapse of the PA, which would effectively kill the two-state solution.

"Iran's threat to Israel's survival" is at the top of the paper's list of threats, followed by the "strategic threat" of long-range missiles and rockets owned by various countries in the region.

"Israel faces these threats almost alone," the paper says. "It is imperative to mobilize the international community and obtain regional cooperation. The new American administration is an opportunity to do this."

The paper says Israel has a limited "window" in which to act before Iran obtains nuclear arms and regional hegemony. Israel must therefore establish a military option against Iran, in case other countries abandon the struggle. The defense establishment advises the cabinet to "work discreetly on contingency plans to deal with a nuclear Iran."

It also recommends close cooperation with the U.S. to prevent a deal between Washington and Tehran that would undermine Israel's interests.

The paper warns that after PA President Mahmoud Abbas' term ends on January 9, 2009, he might "disappear" from the political arena. That could cause the PA to disintegrate, which would increase the risk of the two-state solution being taken off the table.

Due to this possibility, coupled with the fear that Hamas might win a new election, the paper recommends "preventing elections in the PA, even at the cost of a confrontation with the U.S. and the international community."

The paper also advises continued Israeli pressure on Hamas to isolate and weaken it, along with bolstering alternatives to it. "If the truce collapses and conflict is resumed in the Gaza Strip, Israel must act to topple Hamas' rule there," it says.

Regarding Syria, the paper says "an agreement with Syria must be advanced, despite the heavy price Israel would have to pay." The defense establishment believes that removing Syria from the conflict would lead to an agreement with Lebanon as well, thus significantly weakening the radical Iran-Syria-Hezbollah-Hamas axis.

The new American administration must be harnessed to support this process, the paper adds.

Israel should support moderate factions in Lebanon in next year's scheduled parliamentary elections, but not at the expense of Israel's interests, it continues. At the same time, Israel must strengthen its deterrence against Hezbollah and take "low-profile" action against Hezbollah's arms smuggling.

The paper proposes various steps to strengthen Israel's ties with moderate Sunni Arab countries, and especially Saudi Arabia. "Israel must examine ways to expand its dialogue with Saudi Arabia on various shared interests," the document says. It must also act to neutralize potential risks in Saudi Arabia, such as its development of nuclear capability, its purchase of long-range missiles or its closing of the military gap with Israel.

Jordan, the paper says, is experiencing an acute political and economic crisis. "Jordan feels abandoned in the regional face-off and continues to see Israel and the West as strategic supports," it says. "Strengthening and stabilizing our ties with Jordan is crucial to Israel's security. Economic cooperation with Jordan must be strengthened."

With regard to the new administration in Washington, the document warns that "the U.S. is interested in setting up a regional and international alignment against Iran, and Israel is the one that might pay the price." It predicts that Iran and the U.S. will begin talks and warns that Israel must work to prevent any agreement that would be "problematic" from its point of view.

The paper recommends persuading the new administration to support the talks with Syria, to which the Bush administration objected. The U.S., for its part, is expected to demand that Israel bolster the moderates in Lebanon by making concessions in Shaba Farms and Ghajar and ending its objection to America's arming of the Lebanese Army.

Israel must also ensure that recommendations prepared by three American generals on Israeli-Palestinian security coordination, which are to be presented to the new administration, correspond with its interests, the paper says.

It also warns that the U.S. is arming moderate Arab states, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, "in a way that undermines the Israel Defense Forces' edge, especially in the air." Israel must act to prevent this as much as possible, it says.

The paper also discusses Israel's possible responses to a Hamas provocation in the south or a Hezbollah provocation in the north in 2009. It stresses that Israel must avoid a war of attrition or a two-front conflict, and therefore, it must first try to contain the provocation rather than be dragged into a retaliation that would escalate the situation. Afterward, however, it should send a "firm message of deterrence."

If the escalation continues, Israel must "consider embarking on a broad confrontation to hit the enemy severely and end the clash within a short time, and with as clear a result as possible," it adds.

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      1.   Who wrote this paper? 04:11  |  Jerri i 23/11/08
      2.   Unfortunately, with Obama as President, Israel 04:18  |  Pastor Joseph 23/11/08
      3.   Israel`s bid is at the low end 04:38  |  Wise Syrian 23/11/08
      4.   Israel prepares to take on the US? 04:41  |  BBSNews 23/11/08
      5.   Lunacy 04:42  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      6.   Jerri J 04:49  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      7.   Why is it Israel Is Always Making the Sacrifice 05:23  |  Ralph levy 23/11/08
      8.   Single-use paper 05:37  |  Morris Valentine 23/11/08
      9.   Israel`s INSANE Defense Establishment. U.S. Dire WARNING. 05:50  |  Linda Rivera 23/11/08
      10.   are the authors on drugs? 05:59  |  ebina2 23/11/08
      11.   Syria will gain far more if Israel gives Golan 06:02  |  Doron 23/11/08
      12.   Morris Valentine 06:06  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      13.   who is running that country.. 06:11  |  Chris Hernandez 23/11/08
      14.   Reply to Linda (9) - Spot On 06:18  |  Tod Zuckerman 23/11/08
      15.   logical flaws defence establishment paper 06:23  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      16.   calm down israelis do not be alarmed 06:28  |  Bilal 23/11/08
      17.   part1 continued 06:38  |  bilal 23/11/08
      18.   To M Lincoln (#12) 06:58  |  Morris Valentine 23/11/08
      19.   It should rather be called: Offense Establishment Paper 07:09  |  Aounist 23/11/08
      20.   defense paper 07:17  |  rm 23/11/08
      21.   Sounds like "spin" to get the public ready 07:55  |  JS 23/11/08
      22.   40 Acres Not Even Offered? 07:55  |  Mark of Lewiston 23/11/08
      23.   response to "calm down" 08:08  |  Pinchas 23/11/08
      24.   Peace With Israel`s Neighbours...Arab Plan? 08:10  |  Reader 23/11/08
      25.   #4, BBSnews, i think you have it all wrong 08:10  |  VIPER 23/11/08
      26.   Common sense. 08:12  |  Jean Van Daem 23/11/08
      27.   Is peace with Syria really acheivable? 08:15  |  Peter Williams 23/11/08
      28.   Real meaning: Memo to Rahm Emanuel - Fuck you 08:24  |  Michael 23/11/08
      29.   #27, PETER WILLIAMS, no clue at all 08:29  |  VIPER 23/11/08
      30.   Linda, Are You Looking for Defensible Borders? 08:45  |  Reader 23/11/08
      31.   #16, 17, Bilal, Syria is a paper tiger 08:51  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      32.   Idiotic paper. The collapse of the PA would be wonderful! 09:01  |  Chaim 23/11/08
      33.   The new American administration must be harnessed 09:07  |  American 23/11/08
      34.   An Israeli attack upon Iran is pure wishful thinking 09:45  |  Natallie Durson 23/11/08
      35.   Not only a gesture of trust 09:55  |  bilal 23/11/08
      36.   Did Neville Chamberlain write this paper 10:22  |  Ken Jurist 23/11/08
      37.   Interesting closing sentence (Bilal, #35) 10:26  |  Morris Valentine 23/11/08
      38.   Israels favourite "hobby": Making plans for (defense) wars.... 10:28  |  Swiss (Dino) 23/11/08
      39.   Wise Syrian.Syria is trying to grab bits that it has no rights to 10:28  |  PETER SM 23/11/08
      40.   To N Durson (#34): I wish I may ... 10:34  |  Morris Valentine 23/11/08
      41.   Defense establishment 10:39  |  Baruch 23/11/08
      42.   Agenda .... lame duck incompetence 10:39  |  allang 23/11/08
      43.   Israel shows its weakness 10:42  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      44.   "Linda Rivera" shows her terrible, dead-end thinking # 9 10:52  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      45.   Scarifice our kids 10:56  |  Gee 23/11/08
      46.   Have a drink on Doron # 11 10:59  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      47.   Flaws in CJK`s analysis 11:03  |  Guido 23/11/08
      48.   It`s a good plan-I wonder how Obama likes being referred to as a 11:03  |  Susanna/Shoshanna 23/11/08
      49.   Linda Rivera is right on the money 11:12  |  Ken Johnson 23/11/08
      50.   The Defense Establishment or the Israeli Arms Industry? 11:14  |  Tzfonit 23/11/08
      51.   Israeli Napoleons preparing the "grand armee" for action? 11:14  |  S 23/11/08
      52.   We will survive cause all jew-haters, don`t wanna see us back 11:17  |  Alain 23/11/08
      53.   #35, Bilal 11:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      54.   The one thing this paper doesn`t mention 11:23  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/11/08
      55.   #47, Guido 11:43  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      56.   #51, S 11:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      57.   Bilal 11:50  |  x-ray 23/11/08
      58.   S you`re right not to believe 11:51  |  x-ray 23/11/08
      59.   Ya Bilal in Syria 11:54  |  Tzfonit 23/11/08
      60.   au contraire VIPER 11:57  |  Peter Williams 23/11/08
      61.   For Peter Williams # 60 12:07  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      62.   Giving Up Golan Won`t Bring Peace 12:09  |  Roger 23/11/08
      63.   Cipora repeats propaganda # 53 12:09  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      64.   remeber the war georgia started with russia and US 12:30  |  didn`t do jack? 23/11/08
      65.   #63, clickfool 12:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      66.   a better plan: invite iran into peace process! 12:36  |  then you can talk 23/11/08
      67.   Gaby Askenazi is another Leftie dud,selected by defeatist Israeli 12:41  |  Absolute Sweden 23/11/08
      68.   Gaby Askenazi is another Leftie dud,selected by defeatist Israeli 12:47  |  Absolute Sweden 23/11/08
      69.   full of contradictions 12:55  |  Axel 23/11/08
      70.   I risk being unpopular, even with my friends here... 13:01  |  Esther 23/11/08
      71.   NSC-2009 RECOMMENDATIONS PROVE: ISRAEL DOES NOT WANT PEACE #1 13:04  |  see WaPo Today 23/11/08
      72.   NSC-2009 RECOMMENDATIONS PROVE: ISRAEL DOES NOT WANT PEACE #2 13:05  |  see WaPo Today 23/11/08
      73.   Cipora #56... on this point entirely realistic 13:06  |  Esther 23/11/08
      74.   NSC-2009 RECOMMENDATIONS PROVE: ISRAEL DOES NOT WANT PEACE #3 13:07  |  see WaPo Today 23/11/08
      75.   Cretin Lincoln,Lavi was(and is) much better than F-16 13:07  |  Absolute Sweden 23/11/08
      76.   NSC-2009 RECOMMENDATIONS PROVE: ISRAEL DOES NOT WANT PEACE #4 13:08  |  see WaPo Today 23/11/08
      77.   IRAN ISN`T OCCUPYING ANYBODY ELSE LAND 13:14  |  indrajaya 23/11/08
      78.   WHO? 13:24  |  WHY? 23/11/08
      79.   For Cipora # 65 13:46  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      80.   # 75 absolut vodka 14:06  |  Axel 23/11/08
      81.   Playing into Achmedinjad hands... 14:08  |  Gee 23/11/08
      82.   Cipora #53 14:11  |  Esther 23/11/08
      83.   First threat is to the US and EU, not Israel. Focus, Israel! 15:30  |  David Turner 23/11/08
      84.   Twaddle Absolute Sweden 16:13  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      85.   Iran 16:14  |  Dreamer 23/11/08
      86.   Lavi was(and is) much better than F-16? 16:23  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      87.   The same old scare tactics 16:32  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      88.   It is very likely that if Israel attacks Iran 16:38  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      89.   # 75 swedish "expert" 17:19  |  Axel 23/11/08
      90.   What "humanity" would say before Begin attacked Iraq reactor? 17:26  |  Israeli cititzen 23/11/08
      91.   #43 Clickfool 17:29  |  John Allen 23/11/08
      92.   Sorry to disappoint you folks but there aint going to be 17:32  |  Dagma 23/11/08
      93.   Peace 18:14  |  Jackie 23/11/08
      94.   great idea!! if........ 18:19  |  Rose 23/11/08
      95.   For Mark Lincoln # 83 18:34  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      96.   clickfool like Cipora says 18:39  |  Roo 23/11/08
      97.   #44 Clickfool. Peace isn`t accomplished by appeasement. 18:45  |  Chaim 23/11/08
      98.   Who Runs Israel ?? 18:55  |  Neutered Observer 23/11/08
      99.   The problem with your argument Clickfool 19:08  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      100.   Golan, final piece of the prophetic puzzle 19:08  |  Rodney Dezarn 23/11/08
      101.   So what does this forum think of Ya`lon...?! 19:11  |  Esther 23/11/08
      102.   Israel 19:12  |  Roxy 23/11/08
      103.   Ravid makes up a strawman so it can be knocked down 19:15  |  Rob 23/11/08
      104.   INDRAJAYA Never heard of Kurdistan have you? 19:43  |  PETER SM 23/11/08
      105.   Rob #99,,,is Ya`alon a strawman as well...?! 19:43  |  Esther 23/11/08
      106.   Golan for Peace 19:47  |  Don 23/11/08
      107.   Discernable naivite in the paper 19:54  |  khairi janbek 23/11/08
      108.   For John Allen # 87 19:55  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      109.   For Mark Lincoln again # 99 20:10  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      110.   GOLAN IS ISRAEL, FROM NOW TILL THE END OF TIME! 20:11  |  20x20 23/11/08
      111.   Fancy conflict with Syria forever, then, Don? # 106 20:19  |  Clickfool 23/11/08
      112.   It`s crazy to write this way 20:23  |  shlomo 23/11/08
      113.   PLANNING FOR NEW LABOUR USA 20:27  |  Ian 23/11/08
      114.   Neutered Observer 20:32  |  Mark Lincoln 23/11/08
      115.   IDF IS NOT ANY MORE MY ARMY 20:56  |  MAGAD MIL 23/11/08
      116.   #82, Esther 20:57  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      117.   Esther on Ya`alon... 21:13  |  BBSNews 23/11/08
      118.   Relentless Blackmailing Of America; Don`t Appease Terrorists 21:17  |  Gray 23/11/08
      119.   Israel ponders taking on the U.S. - delusions of grandeur. 21:23  |  Maureen Ann 23/11/08
      120.   Two bad ideas don`t make a plan 21:29  |  Ilan 23/11/08
      121.   Clickfool 21:40  |  Peter Williams 23/11/08
      122.   Relentless Blackmailing Of America; Don`t Appease Terrorists 21:50  |  Gray 23/11/08
      123.   Indrajaya # 77 _ Actually Iran Is Occupying Three Islands In The 22:04  |  Eli 23/11/08
      124.   Clickfool # 95 _ Re Clandestine Nuclear weapons 22:07  |  Eli 23/11/08
      125.   #62 - Roger - Giving Up Golan Won`t Bring Peace 22:13  |  Roger 23/11/08
      126.   #9,excellent and correct ! 22:30  |  Gary 23/11/08
      127.   War is inevidable 23:01  |  Gregor 23/11/08
      128.   FM Kouchner warns Obama about negotiating with Iran 23:40  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/11/08
      129.   Relentless Blackmailing Of America; Don`t Appease Terrorists 00:04  |  Gray 24/11/08
      130.   mostly an excellent outlook; except for the hit on iran 00:30  |  eric 24/11/08
      131.   I remember when technology made the Golan critical 00:42  |  Mark Lincoln 24/11/08
      132.   Esther on Ya`alon... - 3rd try 01:14  |  BBSNews 24/11/08
      133.   to CJ Kohn #15 01:26  |  zeev 24/11/08
      134.   Does anybody really believe Hezbollah won`t move into Golan ? 01:33  |  Yossi 24/11/08
      135.   typical canadian response #30 01:56  |  athiest zionist 24/11/08
      136.   to CJ Kohn #31 02:17  |  zeev 24/11/08
      137.   The greatest treath for Israel is Israel itself 02:21  |  Edith 24/11/08
      138.   for Gray, Mark Lincoln and Clicky 02:29  |  Neutered Observer 24/11/08
      139.   Gray, give me a break! 02:30  |  David 24/11/08
      140.   The IDF`s role as Obama`s Brain 02:33  |  Johnboy 24/11/08
      141.   Does anybody really believe Hezbollah won`t move into Golan ? 02:42  |  Mark Lincoln 24/11/08
      142.   Doctrine of the Mentally Deficient 02:43  |  Baruch Gold 24/11/08
      143.   Defense establishment paper: 02:48  |  n_erber 24/11/08
      144.   to Yossi #110 02:57  |  zeev 24/11/08
      145.   #110, Yossi, excellent point 03:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 24/11/08
      146.   Excellent post, Julianna # 15 03:02  |  Fortuna Benmayor 24/11/08
      147.   #111 You have got to be joking, Yossi 03:07  |  Johnboy 24/11/08
      148.   Some caveats, some conclusions 03:10  |  The Northern Wind 24/11/08
      149.   Aussie Peter Deaf? 03:11  |  Ben 24/11/08
      150.   Iran strike? Is anyone still buying this BS? 03:40  |  Jon 24/11/08
      151.   mostly an excellent outlook; except for the hit on iran (2nd try) 04:24  |  eric 24/11/08
      152.   Arse Barkards 08:20  |  John Isenhower 24/11/08
      153.   to CJ Kohn #31 - 2nd try 08:31  |  zeev 24/11/08
      154.   # 108 his office has already disavowed them, bbs. 08:53  |  eric 24/11/08
      155.   A question to all Syrians in these (and other) talkbacks 08:57  |  Hastaroth 24/11/08
      156.   # 70 to esther re: syria`s "incumbent" 09:16  |  eric 24/11/08
      157.   #118, Fortuna Benmayor 09:53  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 24/11/08
      158.   #113, MarkL 09:57  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 24/11/08
      159.   So what else is new? 10:02  |  Jim 24/11/08
      160.   #123, eric 10:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 24/11/08
      161.   Ben from nowhere 10:26  |  Peter Williams 24/11/08
      162.   #88 Mark Lincoln 11:00  |  Jim 24/11/08
      163.   zeev #121 #118 Excellent posts 11:08  |  examiner 24/11/08
      164.   Johnboy #132 11:16  |  examiner 24/11/08
      165.   #97 Chaim 11:19  |  Jim 24/11/08
      166.   # 145 not really cipora, there`s plenty of time... 11:22  |  eric 24/11/08
      167.   #151, examiner 11:54  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 24/11/08
      168.   #146 Hastaroth 12:25  |  Jim 24/11/08
      169.   erratum 12:28  |  Jim 24/11/08
      170.   #150 John Isenhower 12:57  |  Jim 24/11/08
      171.   to Hastaroth #155 18:55  |  zeev 24/11/08
      172.   to CJ Kohn #167 - as confused as always - 2nd try 00:08  |  zeev 25/11/08
      173.   Clickfool # 109 00:33  |  American in NY 25/11/08
      174.   #172, zeev 07:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 25/11/08
      175.   to CJ Kohn #174 08:14  |  zeev 25/11/08
      176.   Peter Peter 09:22  |  Ben 25/11/08
      177.   #175, zeev 09:35  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 25/11/08
      178.   #141, MARK LINCOLN, i do 10:25  |  VIPER 25/11/08
      179.   #155, HASTAROTH, lies lies and more lies 10:27  |  VIPER 25/11/08
      180.   Ben 10:40  |  Peter Williams 25/11/08
      181.   Golan for peace and plan Iran strike 23:04  |  Ruth Asfour 26/11/08
      182.   What a utter puppet Israel leaders are RIGHT ??? 05:10  |  M. S. 29/11/08
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