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Last update - 19:54 21/11/2008
U.S. global power to decline in coming decades, intelligence report says
By Natasha Mozgovaya, Haaretz Correspondent, and Reuters
Tags: Middle East, U.S. 

U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis "Global Trends 2025" also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar's role as the world's major currency would weaken to become a "first among equals," the report said.
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The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," Fingar told reporters. "We could have a better world in 2025."

China and India, following a "state capitalism" economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Russia's potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report said.

"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could reemerge," it said.

Global wealth was seen shifting from the developed West to the energy-rich Gulf States and Russia, and to Asia, the rising center of manufacturing and some service industries.

Global rich-poor disparities would grow, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability.

A reordering of the world financial system was happening faster than the report's authors envisioned, Fingar said. Last weekend's Group of 20 summit of advanced and major developing countries in Washington showed work had begun, he said.

A shift away from an oil-based energy system will be underway or complete by 2025. Better renewable technologies such as solar and wind power offer the best opportunity for a quick and low-cost transition, the report said.

There was a greater, but still small, risk of nuclear attack, based on spreading technologies and the weakening of international nonproliferation systems.

If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, Fingar said, that could set off an arms race in the Middle East, which is considered in the report as an "arc of instability."

The risk that militant groups would use biological weapons was greater than the risk of nuclear terrorism, the report said.

The appeal of terrorism could decline over the next two decades, particularly if Middle Eastern countries provide productive education and opportunities for their young people, the report said. But with a growing population, the pool of potential terrorism recruits is likely to be larger, and access to dangerous weapons will rise.

Dr. Mathew Burrows, the principal drafter for the Council report, told Haaretz on Friday that "it is not meant to be pessimistic, we actually talk about opportunities as well".

Presenting the report at the Foreign Press Center in Washington, Burrows also said that despite the numerous probems facing the U.S. in the international arena, he doesn't think it's going to affect the special relations with Israel. "Israel as well faces numerous challenges, but the relations are strong, and the American Interest in the Middle East dictates that they'll remain strong".

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      1.   When the US can`t even deal with its 14:24  |  spyguy 21/11/08
      2.   Thank God! 14:33  |  POP 21/11/08
      3.   When US switches to elect cars such predictions to be irrelevant 14:36  |  Joel Stein 21/11/08
      4.   Imperial overreach always ends empires 14:50  |  Clickfool 21/11/08
      5.   Reminds Me of The Bible Codes 16:00  |  Jane 21/11/08
      6.   Reminds Me of The Bible Codes 16:04  |  Jane 21/11/08
      7.   Logical 16:54  |  American 21/11/08
      8.   Pretty bad news for "right-wing" Israel....... 16:57  |  Swiss (Dino) 21/11/08
      9.   #1 spyguy 17:22  |  David 21/11/08
      10.   but apart from that.... 17:24  |  don 21/11/08
      11.   The world recession will hurt the Palestinian beggars first 18:55  |  x-ray 21/11/08
      12.   Clickfool 18:58  |  ottomatik 21/11/08
      13.   Such is the George W. Bush legacy 19:15  |  MichaelF 21/11/08
      14.   We`ll see 19:32  |  An American 21/11/08
      15.   Israel is the Mid East Superpower..! 19:42  |  Stephen. 21/11/08
      16.   No. 2, POP--No, don`t thank god 20:09  |  W 21/11/08
      17.   Joel Stein 21:18  |  ottomatik 21/11/08
      18.   #15 Stephen 21:32  |  janet 21/11/08
      19.   Stephen, harrumphing for Israel # 15 21:44  |  Clickfool 21/11/08
      20.   XRay - how wrong you are... 23:34  |  Palestinian Brit 21/11/08
      21.   Clicky wrong again 23:59  |  Golani 21/11/08
      22.   Palestinian Brit dream world 00:12  |  Golani 22/11/08
      23.   Jane - stating the obvious for the benefit of 00:26  |  Mark Lincoln 22/11/08
      24.   Joel Stein - the decison was made 00:32  |  Mark Lincoln 22/11/08
      25.   Golani......actually I live in 2 worlds... 00:48  |  Palestinian Brit 22/11/08
      26.   Clickfool # 19 01:11  |  BGold 22/11/08
      27.   ISRAEL IS THE ONLY FACTOR 01:45  |  indrajaya 22/11/08
      28.   An accurate analysis of the US 02:05  |  Dennis MI VI 22/11/08
      29.   Good news for humanity, Israel wake uo...... 02:48  |  Diego 22/11/08
      30.   I tend to agree with this artical 03:57  |  Ron 22/11/08
      31.   Arab Decline 04:04  |  Ron 22/11/08
      32.   #3 Stein casually ignores the amount 04:18  |  spyguy 22/11/08
      33.   #9 Hard reality David refuses to see ... 04:29  |  spyguy 22/11/08
      34.   #15 Stephen delusioan pap 04:36  |  spyguy 22/11/08
      35.   there is no power and there is no liberty without God!where is He 07:12  |  glenna 22/11/08
      36.   to the hopers of us decline 07:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/11/08
      37.   to those who hope that israel will be annihilated 07:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/11/08
      38.   where`s the national intelligence coming from;because i don`t 07:37  |  glenna 22/11/08
      39.   Swiss dinko and schadenfreude 09:52  |  x-ray 22/11/08
      40.   For Cipora # 37 10:04  |  Clickfool 22/11/08
      41.   Yechezkel Dror said most of this in 1970`s 11:19  |  Samuel Cohen 22/11/08
      42.   Glenna 11:29  |  Palestinian Brit 22/11/08
      43.   Clickfool: grim future for England police state 12:41  |  Israeli citizen 22/11/08
      44.   #35 Say Glenna 15:54  |  ballistic 22/11/08
      45.   #38 Say Glenna 15:56  |  ballistic 22/11/08
      46.   #37 Say Cipora, the prophet 16:04  |  ballistic 22/11/08
      47.   Take the deal on the table - Ulster or South Africa? 16:44  |  Manny Goldstein 22/11/08
      48.   Sticks and stones! 16:51  |  utagawa 22/11/08
      49.   Hey Ballistic 04:54  |  Gatorbmr 24/11/08
      50.   Gatorbmr 17:58  |  ballistic 24/11/08
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