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Last update - 09:44 23/11/2008
Experts argue: How close is Iran to its first nuclear weapon?
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: IAEA, Iran, Nuclear, Weapon

Nuclear experts worldwide are divided over Iran's proximity to building an atom bomb, with some arguing that the Islamic Republic is in fact capable of building one today.

The differences of opinion stem from conflicting analyses of a routine update by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has been conducting inspections of Iran's main nuclear plant at Natanz.

The report stated that the Islamic Republic has at Natanz 3,800 centrifuges and the equipment needed to enrich uranium, working at only 70-80 percent of their capacity. Iran has also installed another 3,000 centrifuges but has not activated them.
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Iran will have an estimated 9,000 centrifuges by the end of the year. Those currently working, according to the IAEA report, have so far made 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium.

This uranium cannot be used as fissionable material for the production of a nuclear weapon with Iran's current capabilities. But some experts argue that this amount, at least in theory, is enough to produce one atom bomb - if it undergoes further processing, and the enrichment is at a high level.

To do this, Iran would need to enact a series of operations for which it would certainly have to bring to a complete halt international supervision over its nuclear program.

A senior IAEA official told Haaretz that since the publication of the last report, Iran has actually not achieved any technological breakthroughs in its nuclear program. Nevertheless, if Tehran continues the program at its current pace, it will be able to build a nuclear weapon within a year or a year-and-a-half.

State Department Spokesperson Sean McCormack on Thursday called for the IAEA to take stronger measures against Iran, saying "we would urge the Board of Governors to send a very strong message to Iran that they must comply with the demands of the international community."


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      1.   The countdown to Armageddon. 19:39  |  Stephen. 20/11/08
      2.   US Intelligence experts are on the take from Iran,they said earli 20:01  |  Absolute Sweden 20/11/08
      3.   Expert: Frankly, I Find the Idea of an Intelligent Bug Offensive 20:35  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 20/11/08
      4.   You`re an idiot, Stephen # 1 20:38  |  Clickfool 20/11/08
      5.   #1 Stephen. Not Sure At All 20:40  |  Persian Hero 20/11/08
      6.   Mullah`s will win 20:43  |  Yuri 20/11/08
      7.   Experts united that Israel will only bark but never dare to bite 20:50  |  Aounist 20/11/08
      8.   Stephen. You are completely off your rocker... - 1st try 20:55  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      9.   YYyyyyyyaaaaaaawwwwwnnnnnnnn 21:08  |  Chris Linthwaite 20/11/08
      10.   #.4. Clickfool. Thought you would catch Israel asleep.? 21:22  |  Stephen. 20/11/08
      11.   #4 Clickfool 21:24  |  Jeff 20/11/08
      12.   Less incentive for Iran 21:26  |  Jim 20/11/08
      13.   Clickfool (#4) You have too much faith in the Iranian Regime 21:35  |  Gil 20/11/08
      14.   Clickfool (#4) You have too much faith in the Iranian Regime 21:36  |  Gil 20/11/08
      15.   Defeat coming for Israel 21:43  |  Natallie Durson 20/11/08
      16.   # 9 jim 21:46  |  Axel 20/11/08
      17.   # 11 stephen 21:54  |  Axel 20/11/08
      18.   Actually, Clickfool..... 21:56  |  Eric C 20/11/08
      19.   No war is going to happen 22:00  |  Yitzhak 20/11/08
      20.   #8.BBSnews. 22:10  |  Stephen. 20/11/08
      21.   Rope-A-Dope 22:19  |  Brendan 20/11/08
      22.   Persian 5: I can understand why you are not sure 22:33  |  Realist 20/11/08
      23.   Does Achmedinijad want Armageddon? 23:00  |  Buck 20/11/08
      24.   So what, let them have it.. 23:01  |  Raju 20/11/08
      25.   irasn`s first nuke? i doubtt they will make one 23:04  |  first off 20/11/08
      26.   #7 Arsonist: Israel Just Cleared the Deck in Syria 23:08  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 20/11/08
      27.   to# 15, who is safe at IDF hands? 23:08  |  najoure 20/11/08
      28.   Iran nukes 23:16  |  Ray Woods 20/11/08
      29.   Jim #12 Stop kidding yourself 23:17  |  Tzfonit 20/11/08
      30.   Israel will not be the victim of "humanity" 23:17  |  Israeli citizen 20/11/08
      31.   Oil dropped below US 50 the barrel 23:20  |  Israeli citizen 20/11/08
      32.   For Stephen, a victim of Israeli propaganda # 10 23:36  |  Clickfool 20/11/08
      33.   Aounist 01:23  |  The Teacher/Instruct 21/11/08
      34.   Holloween Was Last Month 01:36  |  Mark Lincoln 21/11/08
      35.   Beating the war drums one last time 01:37  |  Mark Lincoln 21/11/08
      36.   Pointing out where the war-mongering falls down... 01:59  |  Johnboy 21/11/08
      37.   Conclusion 02:55  |  Ben 21/11/08
      38.   By this standard, I`m only years away from building my own Porche 04:00  |  Pablo B 21/11/08
      39.   Dealing with Iran`s nuclear ambitions 04:29  |  Majid Al Ghamdi 21/11/08
      40.   Pablo - on your own Porsch 05:41  |  Mark Lincoln 21/11/08
      41.   Ben - This paranoid article had no source in Israel 05:43  |  Mark Lincoln 21/11/08
      42.   The nearest analogy to this article..... 05:52  |  Johnboy 21/11/08
      43.   I agree Chris, it`s five minutes to midnight... 06:55  |  BBSNews 21/11/08
      44.   Stephen. You are still nuts... 07:04  |  BBSNews 21/11/08
      45.   Nuke-what nuke? What`s a nuke? 08:33  |  Mark 21/11/08
      46.   We can?t afford to wait : Time has come for action. 08:35  |  Mario Sala 21/11/08
      47.   to Stephen 09:38  |  Iran zamin 21/11/08
      48.   a very tall order 09:39  |  Capt Ahab 21/11/08
      49.   No appetite for war anywhere other than Israel 09:43  |  Clickfool 21/11/08
      50.   #44 Mario Sala and others... 10:05  |  PADDY 21/11/08
      51.   Mario Sala/Jean van Daem plays with words # 44 10:14  |  Clickfool 21/11/08
      52.   Nuclear weapons 10:42  |  Rajkumar das james 21/11/08
      53.   NO MATTER HOW ACCURATE 10:47  |  indrajaya 21/11/08
      54.   clickfool 11:41  |  DW 21/11/08
      55.   What would ONE bomb change? 11:54  |  Fritrz T. 21/11/08
      56.   El-Click-fool und El-Durson 12:17  |  Turkish Deli 21/11/08
      57.   #17-axel. On paranoia. 13:18  |  Stephen. 21/11/08
      58.   #45. Iran zamin. On barking dogs. 13:23  |  Stephen. 21/11/08
      59.   #9 Chris Linthwaite 13:40  |  H 21/11/08
      60.   #57 H doesnt matter you got the point 14:12  |  Chris Linthwaite 21/11/08
      61.   TWO YEARS AGO ISRAELIS WERE SAYING IRANIANS WERE MONTHS CLOSE TO 14:46  |  mehmet 21/11/08
      62.