Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., November 20, 2008 Cheshvan 22, 5769 | | Israel Time: 03:11 (EST+7)   Back to Homepage web haaretz.com Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate GA 2008 Travel Week's End Anglo File

Poll: Likud to triple Knesset seats By Yossi Verter Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud have had a good three weeks, with no major slips, with brand new faces and with a good press, while Kadima is bleeding and Labor is disintegrating. The opinion polls are responding in kind: Likud opened a large, decisive lead of six MKs over Kadima. The right-wing bloc, led by Likud, is also firming up in comparison to previous polls, with 64 MKs versus 56 for the center-left. In effect, the right is much stronger than the center left, since its count also includes 11 MKs from the Arab parties: They will not be asked to join the governing coalition and in the current political climate their only use will be as part of a "preventive bloc" in the Knesset. Advertisement These numbers are from a Haaretz-Dialog poll of a representative sample of the Israeli public conducted Tuesday under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's statistics department. The main question is whether the significant improvement in the Likud's showing is temporary, the inevitable result of the parade of new players presented by Netanyahu to the media at the rate of one a week - Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, Assaf Hefet and Moshe Ya'alon - or the start of a genuine trend. Only time will tell. Just three weeks ago, most of the polls predicted a draw between Kadima and Likud, and a near-draw between the blocs. Now Likud is racing forward and is nearing the results of the 2003 election, when Ariel Sharon, who was very popular at the time, scooped up 38 Knesset seats for his party. But the achievement (in the opinion polls, for now) of Netanyahu is much greater: He is less popular than Sharon was, more controversial than Sharon was, and today's Likud is the post-2005 split Likud; Sharon's Likud of 2003 was whole then, and Kadima was just a twinkle in Haim Ramon's eye. Once more it must be noted that we are at the start of the campaign. The gloves are still on, Netanyahu has not yet been worked over by Kadima or by Labor. Things could definitely change. But it's clear that the mood on the Israeli street is plainly in Likud's favor. Labor isn't in the game. It's battling against Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu for the position of fifth-largest party. Potentially, it could lose additional Knesset seats to the new leftist movement coalescing around Meretz to become Israel's sixth-largest party, and that is likely to spell the end of the Labor Party. In Tuesday's poll, Meretz gained two seats over the poll carried out three weeks ago, going from five seats to seven, merely for being talked about and without anything significant happening. This week, former army chief of staff Lieutenant General (res.) Moshe Ya'alon joined Likud. The poll examined his suitability for the post of defense minister compared to Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz (Kadima). Mofaz and Barak are leading by a nose with just a slight edge to Mofaz and Ya'alon in third place. More could have been expected from Ya'alon: After all, this was his week. The spotlight was on him, Barak is unpopular, and it was also a week of Qassams in Sderot, Ashkelon and the Gaza-border communities. That probably did not help Barak's numbers any. The full survey will be published in Week's End tomorrow. Bookmark to del.icio.us   The King is dead Archeologists find new evidence for King Herod's tomb site. Al-Hasbara Israel launches Arabic YouTube channel to bypass Arab media.

Read & React Bradley Burston: Dividing Jerusalem, one wall at a time Responses: 42 Peres: Obama told me he was 'very impressed' with Arab peace plan Responses: 75 VIDEO / Peres speech at Oxford University disrupted by anti-Israel protesters Responses: 104 Settler rabbi: The State of Israel is an enemy of the people Responses: 69 Hamas: We're prepared to end cease-fire and confront Israel Responses: 49 More Headlines 22:25 IAEA: Syria site bombed by Israel bore features of nuclear reactor 22:05 Israel to boycott 'Durban II' anti-racism conference 21:40 Assad: Israel never asked Syria to cut ties with Hezbollah, Iran 21:42 PA negotiator: Obama told Abbas he'd spare no effort to see Mideast peace 19:26 Israel launches Arabic YouTube channel to bypass Arab media 22:02 Jewish Republican representative elected to top deputy spot in Congress 01:36 Archaeologists find new evidence for King Herod's tomb site 23:06 GA special report / Satisfied participants bid farewell to Jerusalem 00:44 U.S. FAA downgrades Israel's aviation safety ranking 19:04 Dividing Jerusalem, one wall at a time 02:09 Al-Qaida No. 2: Obama guilty of betraying Muslim roots in backing Israel 00:42 Peres speech at Oxford University disrupted by anti-Israel protesters 02:07 Warsaw completes restoration project marking Jewish Ghetto boundaries 01:50 Court sentences Boaz Yona to 7 years, doubles damages he must pay 02:40 Report: 90% of schools offer auxiliary programs not monitored by Education Min. Previous Editions Select Day 19 nov 18 nov 17 nov 16 nov 14 nov 13 nov 12 nov 11 nov 10 nov 09 nov 07 nov 06 nov

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