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Last update - 21:24 21/11/2008
Elections 2009: Latest poll gives Likud big edge over Kadima
By Yossi Verter
Tags: Israel News, elections 

Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud have had a good three weeks, with no major slips, with brand new faces and with a good press, while Kadima is bleeding and Labor is disintegrating.

The opinion polls are responding in kind: Likud opened a large, decisive lead of six MKs over Kadima. The right-wing bloc, led by Likud, is also firming up in comparison to previous polls, with 64 MKs versus 56 for the center-left. In effect, the right is much stronger than the center left, since its count also includes 11 MKs from the Arab parties: They will not be asked to join the governing coalition and in the current political climate their only use will be as part of a "preventive bloc" in the Knesset.

These numbers are from a Haaretz-Dialog poll of a representative sample of the Israeli public conducted Tuesday under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's statistics department. The main question is whether the significant improvement in the Likud's showing is temporary, the inevitable result of the parade of new players presented by Netanyahu to the media at the rate of one a week - Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, Assaf Hefet and Moshe Ya'alon - or the start of a genuine trend. Only time will tell.
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Just three weeks ago, most of the polls predicted a draw between Kadima and Likud, and a near-draw between the blocs. Now Likud is racing forward and is nearing the results of the 2003 election, when Ariel Sharon, who was very popular at the time, scooped up 38 Knesset seats for his party.

But the achievement (in the opinion polls, for now) of Netanyahu is much greater: He is less popular than Sharon was, more controversial than Sharon was, and today's Likud is the post-2005 split Likud; Sharon's Likud of 2003 was whole then, and Kadima was just a twinkle in Haim Ramon's eye.

Once more it must be noted that we are at the start of the campaign. The gloves are still on, Netanyahu has not yet been worked over by Kadima or by Labor. Things could definitely change. But it's clear that the mood on the Israeli street is plainly in Likud's favor. Labor isn't in the game. It's battling against Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu for the position of fifth-largest party. Potentially, it could lose additional Knesset seats to the new leftist movement coalescing around Meretz to become Israel's sixth-largest party, and that is likely to spell the end of the Labor Party. In Tuesday's poll, Meretz gained two seats over the poll carried out three weeks ago, going from five seats to seven, merely for being talked about and without anything significant happening.

This week, former army chief of staff Lieutenant General (res.) Moshe Ya'alon joined Likud. The poll examined his suitability for the post of defense minister compared to Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) and former defense minister Shaul Mofaz (Kadima). Mofaz and Barak are leading by a nose with just a slight edge to Mofaz and Ya'alon in third place. More could have been expected from Ya'alon: After all, this was his week. The spotlight was on him, Barak is unpopular, and it was also a week of Qassams in Sderot, Ashkelon and the Gaza-border communities. That probably did not help Barak's numbers any.

The full survey will be published in Week's End on Friday.

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  • Former IDF chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon joins Likud
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      1.   Too early 04:09  |  Jonathan 20/11/08
      2.   Its only natural that Livni would lose she is a defeatist . 04:10  |  Jonathan Davis 20/11/08
      3.   Kadima has failed 04:19  |  Jon 20/11/08
      4.   Israel - never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity 05:01  |  Pablo B 20/11/08
      5.   Likud will win big because 05:07  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 20/11/08
      6.   Given the choice . . . 05:17  |  Fred Michaelsberg 20/11/08
      7.   I`m more thinking toward 80-40 05:37  |  Gee 20/11/08
      8.   Livni is "The Queen of defeatist and surrender" 06:03  |  Isaac Rubinstein 20/11/08
      9.   Despite Haaretz`s Bad Press 06:10  |  Steve 20/11/08
      10.   Of course the Likud is going to win! 06:18  |  Steven 20/11/08
      11.   NOOOOOOO!!!! 06:21  |  Jake Barker 20/11/08
      12.   re: Kadima has failed 06:26  |  Jake Barker 20/11/08
      13.   Israel Nostalgic For Retarded Netanyahu 06:30  |  dyinglikeflies 20/11/08
      14.   Israelies are in the line of fire and hence ... 07:01  |  Brad 20/11/08
      15.   Clickfool`s and Durson`s rants 07:13  |  Fish 20/11/08
      16.   Pablo B - Plagiarism? 07:16  |  Fish 20/11/08
      17.   Pablo and basic turnspeak 07:38  |  SDHD 20/11/08
      18.   It isn`t "right" and "center-left"- It`s center-right"/ far left 07:46  |  Avi 20/11/08
      19.   Ooooooooooffffff!!!!!! 07:52  |  Rina 20/11/08
      20.   Pablo B, talk of missed opportunities! 07:57  |  Rina 20/11/08
      21.   Israelis are looking for CHANGE after the dismal Kadima 08:01  |  Dagma 20/11/08
      22.   Israelis are looking for CHANGE after the dismal Kadima 08:01  |  Dagma 20/11/08
      23.   To # 13 dyinglikeflies - Nobody went broke? 08:14  |  Dolly 20/11/08
      24.   Yossi Verter is squirming and obviously detests poll results :-) 08:23  |  redmike 20/11/08
      25.   You know what? Elect Bibi... 08:48  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      26.   To BBSNews # 25 - Good then Vote Bibi as you recommend 09:14  |  Dagma 20/11/08
      27.   Amusing yet heartwarming to see........ 09:15  |  Ari ben Yisrael 20/11/08
      28.   I Fervently Hope This Trend Continues 09:15  |  Tod Zuckerman 20/11/08
      29.   Likud big edge over Kadima 09:42  |  Ralph 20/11/08
      30.   That`s why: 09:45  |  S 20/11/08
      31.   Is Israel lost now for good....???? 09:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 20/11/08
      32.   If Ariel Sharon was still around...... 09:59  |  The Threadmill 20/11/08
      33.   Tod Zuckerman from Frisco 10:14  |  Mark 20/11/08
      34.   WHO wll know what will be in the end...... 10:16  |  The Truthful One 20/11/08
      35.   Time for America to assert Saudi Plan to Netanyahu 10:47  |  Ivar 20/11/08
      36.   Not able to produce peace or stop missiles centre left looks weak 10:49  |  Sam 20/11/08
      37.   Collective short memory 11:02  |  Physicist 20/11/08
      38.   Israel. A political talent vacuum. 11:15  |  Michael 20/11/08
      39.   kadima - more left than Meeretz & more pro arab than Ballad 11:16  |  zionist forever 20/11/08
      40.   Under Bibi , Likud is No Alternative to Axis of Evil Policies , 11:18  |  Joseph.E 20/11/08
      41.   Get ready, Haaretz, payback is a bitch! 11:20  |  Freethinker 20/11/08
      42.   If Bibi`s the answer, it must be a bloody silly question. 11:20  |  Michael 20/11/08
      43.   Israeli: HaAtid shelcha, HaBitachon shelcha - ze Likud, Likud! 11:34  |  Vittorio 20/11/08
      44.   BIB IS FANTASTIC FOR ISRAEL IN EVERY WAY!!!! 11:49  |  Dr Eric 20/11/08
      45.   YES, ISRAEL IS ON HER WAY BACK 12:19  |  Moshe 20/11/08
      46.   #33 Mark from Crisco:there ARE intelligent people like Tod in SF. 12:28  |  Operating Room RN 20/11/08
      47.   Haaretz, Why can`t you give us a detailed graph!? 12:48  |  I want graph 20/11/08
      48.   #40 - boosting the economy is best thing to try at the moment .. 12:54  |  redmike 20/11/08
      49.   Reality check... 12:56  |  Gee 20/11/08
      50.   #27, Ari Ben Israel- Through the galut lens 13:24  |  dyinglikeflies 20/11/08
      51.   GO AHEAD, BIBI, MAKE OUR DAY 15:06  |  indrajaya 20/11/08
      52.   #13 To dyinglikeflies 15:40  |  John Allen 20/11/08
      53.   Time for Ivar to change his diapers 15:51  |  Petra 20/11/08
      54.   # 4 Pablo never misses an opportunity 15:56  |  Petra 20/11/08
      55.   #25 BBS 15:56  |  John Allen 20/11/08
      56.   #11 Jake 16:08  |  John Allen 20/11/08
      57.   Barak saved Kadima and killed Labour 17:08  |  zionist forever 20/11/08
      58.   No difference 17:09  |  Paul P 20/11/08
      59.   Obama will know how to handle Bibi 17:22  |  Markus Grafenburg 20/11/08
      60.   Palestinians for Bibi 17:43  |  james 20/11/08
      61.   Thank G-D..most Israeli`s and Jews are just sick of what Kadima . 17:59  |  Jordan 20/11/08
      62.   If true, great news ! 18:17  |  Gary 20/11/08
      63.   #53, Obama is no match for Bibi 19:05  |  Gary 20/11/08
      64.   swiss donkey still braying 19:18  |  peter 20/11/08
      65.   OMG Ivar read part of the Saudi Plan 19:23  |  peter 20/11/08
      66.   Kadima has to pay for its big primal mistakes 19:40  |  ARA 20/11/08
      67.   polls give likud big edge 20:14  |  ariela 20/11/08
      68.   Only masochists vote for Kadima-labor 20:17  |  True zionist 20/11/08
      69.   Kadima & Labor are Disintegrating because they are failures 20:18  |  Livin In Rishon 20/11/08
      70.   Look. No great fan of Netanyahu, but after a gov?t & MK?s that? 20:51  |  bat yam 20/11/08
      71.   Love it that the `furriners` tell us how to vote 20:54  |  x-ray 20/11/08
      72.   To Ivar # 35 - The Saudi Plan..... 21:08  |  Dagma 20/11/08
      73.   Latest poll 21:19  |  MarkH 20/11/08
      74.   Israel MUST have self respecting leadership. 22:17  |  Chaim 20/11/08
      75.   Mark H from USA: you just had your election! 22:20  |  Realist 20/11/08
      76.   To Ari be Israel # 27 22:25  |  Choni Davidowitz 20/11/08
      77.   #25,Wishful thinking ,bbsnews 22:43  |  Gary 20/11/08
      78.   OMG, Peter in Montreal does not read Haaretz... 23:26  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      79.   You mean like the American election x-ray? 23:39  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      80.   The illegal occupations cause rockets Gary... 23:46  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      81.   Dagma, how many times must you lie? 23:55  |  BBSNews 20/11/08
      82.   #81, UN 242 is a man-made construct 00:48  |  Gary 21/11/08
      83.   # 48 redmike @ Tel Aviv- Israel 00:50  |  Joseph.E 21/11/08
      84.   #80 BBS. We`re "occupying" our own land. 02:12  |  Chaim 21/11/08
      85.   For Tod Zuckerman # 28 03:22  |  Fortuna Benmayor 21/11/08
      86.   BSNews -- a VIP 03:44  |  SDHD 21/11/08
      87.   BSNews still doesn`t understand 242 03:48  |  SDHD 21/11/08
      88.   Replyto 46 and 85 ( Operating Room Nurse and Fortuna) 05:39  |  Tod Zuckerman 21/11/08
      89.   OK Gary, I can see you live in myth land... 06:20  |  BBSNews 21/11/08
      90.   Chaim, you make me giggle at you... 06:47  |  BBSNews 21/11/08
      91.   Elections 2009 08:59  |  BBC 21/11/08
      92.   #76 Choni Thank you for a civil response for once 09:43  |  Ari ben Yisrael 21/11/08
      93.   Dagma, 72, forgets that the AIPAC willl swallow the Saudi Plan 10:15  |  Ivar 21/11/08
      94.   Ari, nothing to say about Leftist Bilin/Naalaim rioters 12:12  |  Genuine Tosefta 21/11/08
      95.   Elect Bibi... 04:26  |  Jason_M 22/11/08
      96.   Could Obama prefer Saudi tyrant to elected Israeli leader? 19:59  |  Ilan 22/11/08
      97.   #90. BBS Giggle all you want but this land is ours! 01:49  |  Chaim 25/11/08
      98.   If you love Israel, please vote Likud, National Union or Beiteinu 01:53  |  Chaim 25/11/08
      99.   Israel 08:31  |  Ben Shine 11/02/09
     Read & React
    With 99 percent of votes counted, Kadima leads Likud 28 to 27 seats
    Responses: 105
    ANALYSIS: Success of rightist bloc may propel Netanyahu into PM's chair
    Responses: 111
    Aluf Benn: For the sake of peace, Labor and Kadima must merge
    Responses: 90
    Bradley Burston: Will Livni, Netanyahu settle for rotation, sharing premiership?
    Responses: 45
    Poll: 31% of Europeans blame Jews for global financial crisis
    Responses: 27


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    09:46 Kadima, Likud scramble to muster rival coalitions
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