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Dealing with Hamas / 'Tahadiyeh light' By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff As things looked last night, it seems Hamas can confidently tack on a few advantage points recently accumulated in its conflict with Israel in the Gaza Strip. The massive barrage of Qassam rockets (as well as, in recent days, Katyushas and Grads) completely removed from Palestinian discourse criticism of the organization, which recently left reconciliation talks with Fatah. Hamas has successfully conveyed the message that it has overpowered Israel and will soon be able to return to the cease-fire [tahadiyeh] from an advantageous position. Advertisement Last night, after 24 hours without rockets, it seems that chances are growing of the cease-fire going back into effect. Still, in light of similar estimates being proven false in recent days, it is still too early to determine whether Hamas will remain loyal to its word and impose discipline on its members and the smaller Palestinian factions. Israeli policy is clearer. Despite Minister Haim Ramon's recent declaration that the tahadiyeh is "dead," it appears that a large-scale military operation in the Strip is still not in the offing. Last night, Defense Minister Ehud Barak criticized both Prime Minister Olmert and Ramon, and by implication Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, for what he called the rush to the 2006 Second Lebanon War. If turns out that the tahadiyeh may drag on for another month or month and a half, we can already count on the largest stumbling blocks that could lead to its fall. This could come in the form of a clash around an area of several hundred meters in Palestinian territory, whose off-limit status to armed groups the Israel Defense Forces wants returned. Last week Hamas militants responded to the IDF killing four of their number near the security fence by firing Katyushas at Ashkelon. Such will likely be their response in the future as well. It is difficult to see both sides arriving at an agreement over who is allowed to enter this area. This dispute, along with the opposition of Hamas' military wing to extending the tahadiyeh past the six-month mark (which ends December 19) could compromise any future cease-fire. So even if a cease-fire is attained in the future, it will likely be a "tahadiyeh light," even more fragile than its predecessor. Hamas is now faced by another temptation: Escalating the conflict in Gaza, and even committing a suicide bombing within the Green Line, can affect Israel's electoral process. Hamas may believe that a rise in terrorism will lead to the election of Likud, which will improve the group's own image in the international community. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Taped launch IDF releases video of Gaza gunners firing rockets at Israel. GA, Jerusalem UJC General Assembly opens, organizers expect 'success.'

Read & React U.S. study urges Obama to press Israel over nukes Responses: 173 Israeli lightly hurt as Qassam hits yard of Sderot home Responses: 120 Yossi Melman: Syria may soon face nuclear sanctions like Iran Responses: 62 Livni to Miliband: U.K. plan to label W. Bank goods is 'exaggerated' Responses: 58 ANALYSIS / Hamas is calling the shots as Israel's leaders bicker Responses: 67 More Headlines 23:06 GA special report / Olmert: World must confront Iran's malevolence 23:28 Livni to Miliband: U.K. plan to label West Bank goods is 'exaggerated' 23:44 Poll: Only 19% of Americans say Israeli-Palestinian peace should top Obama's priorities 00:27 Israeli lightly hurt as Qassam hits yard of Sderot home 23:11 GA special report / Olmert: Strong Israel is best deterrent protecting world Jewry 21:05 IDF releases video of Gaza gunners firing rockets at Israel 18:02 PA negotiator Erekat: Netanyahu is closing the door to peace 19:24 IDF officials: Settlers unlikely to quit Hebron home unless forced 15:48 ANALYSIS / Hamas is calling the shots as Israel's leaders bicker 20:36 GA special report / Ex-basketball star Tal Brody expected to run for Likud Knesset list 00:26 B-G Airport strike ends as Histadrut chief calls for renewed talks in labor dispute 15:16 Ahmadinejad aide under fire over Koran 'dance' 09:12 U.S. study urges Obama to press Israel over nuclear program 00:26 Ami Ayalon quits Labor, claiming party has lost its will to live 09:17 Feted author Amos Oz says new leftist party will replace Labor Previous Editions Select Day 16 nov 14 nov 13 nov 12 nov 11 nov 10 nov 09 nov 07 nov 06 nov 05 nov 04 nov 03 nov

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