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Ismail Haniyeh (AP)
Last update - 18:53 18/11/2008
ANALYSIS / Hamas is calling the shots as Israel's leaders bicker
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel News, Gaza, Hamas 

As things looked Saturday night, it seems Hamas can confidently tack on a few advantage points recently accumulated in its conflict with Israel in the Gaza Strip. The massive barrage of Qassam rockets (as well as, in recent days, Katyushas and Grads) completely removed from Palestinian discourse criticism of the organization, which recently left reconciliation talks with Fatah.

Hamas has successfully conveyed the message that it has overpowered Israel and will soon be able to return to the cease-fire [tahadiyeh] from an advantageous position.

On Saturday night, after 24 hours without rockets, it seems that chances are growing of the cease-fire going back into effect. Still, in light of similar estimates being proven false in recent days, it is still too early to determine whether Hamas will remain loyal to its word and impose discipline on its members and the smaller Palestinian factions.
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Israeli policy is clearer. Despite Minister Haim Ramon's recent declaration that the tahadiyeh is "dead," it appears that a large-scale military operation in the Strip is still not in the offing.

On Saturday night, Defense Minister Ehud Barak criticized both Prime Minister Olmert and Ramon, and by implication Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, for what he called the rush to the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

If turns out that the tahadiyeh may drag on for another month or month and a half, we can already count on the largest stumbling blocks that could lead to its fall.

This could come in the form of a clash around an area of several hundred meters in Palestinian territory, whose off-limit status to armed groups the Israel Defense Forces wants returned. Last week Hamas militants responded to the IDF killing four of their number near the security fence by firing Katyushas at Ashkelon. Such will likely be their response in the future as well.

It is difficult to see both sides arriving at an agreement over who is allowed to enter this area. This dispute, along with the opposition of Hamas' military wing to extending the tahadiyeh past the six-month mark (which ends December 19) could compromise any future cease-fire.

So even if a cease-fire is attained in the future, it will likely be a "tahadiyeh light," even more fragile than its predecessor. Hamas is now faced by another temptation: Escalating the conflict in Gaza, and even committing a suicide bombing within the Green Line, can affect Israel's electoral process. Hamas may believe that a rise in terrorism will lead to the election of Likud, which will improve the group's own image in the international community.

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      1.   True, but Hamas has a greater goal than peronal 02:28  |  Mark Lincoln 16/11/08
      2.   Things will improve when Obama takes office 02:51  |  MARK KLEIN, M.D. 16/11/08
      3.   You are either naive or an idiot 04:21  |  Ps 16/11/08
      4.   Are you fooling us? 04:48  |  Theo 16/11/08
      5.   This is why Kadima, Livni or Barak can never be elected to office 06:14  |  Livin In Rishon 16/11/08
      6.   good tlo know hamas knowsx what they are doing 06:26  |  noone else has a clu 16/11/08
      7.   First a settlement freeze, then a withdrawal 07:50  |  Natallie Durson 16/11/08
      8.   Man, talk about beyond chutzpah! 07:50  |  Johnboy 16/11/08
      9.   Johnboy mind the hubris 08:39  |  Peter Williams 16/11/08
      10.   #7 nutullie when did oibama become president of israel ?/ 08:46  |  victor hardman 16/11/08
      11.   Freebies for the Pals (since Durson pointed it out) 08:49  |  Joe Sittizen 16/11/08
      12.   Hamas calls the shots- it certainly does 09:08  |  DT 16/11/08
      13.   happy days are here again 09:22  |  Mark 16/11/08
      14.   Does Israel really want the cease fire....???? 09:48  |  Swiss (Dino) 16/11/08
      15.   olmert hands enemy another victory. 09:56  |  dante 16/11/08
      16.   Johnboy STILL doesn`t know what a ceasefire agreement is. 10:34  |  SDHD 16/11/08
      17.   Peter Williams, re: johnboy 10:37  |  SDHD 16/11/08
      18.   IF 15 TERRORISTS KILLED IN A WEEK IS `CALLING THE SHOTS`, THEN 11:31  |  Freethinker 16/11/08
      19.   POOR MARK KLEIN THINKS THE NEOCONS WROTE THE KO`RAN 11:36  |  Freethinker 16/11/08
      20.   Mark Lincolin #1 11:50  |  Refugee 16/11/08
      21.   BREAKING NEWS. Olmert orders the end of Hamas rule in Gaza! 11:54  |  Maureen Ann 16/11/08
      22.   THE DIFFERENT IS OBVIOUS BETWEEN THE TWO 12:11  |  indrajaya 16/11/08
      23.   Injustice Continues 12:28  |  KHS 16/11/08
      24.   #9 Peter Williams - what *is* an Israeli ceasefire? 13:10  |  Johnboy 16/11/08
      25.   Maureen are you on drugs? 13:56  |  Peter Williams 16/11/08
      26.   Yes, I agree 14:03  |  Palestinian 16/11/08
      27.   Johnboy, like flogging a dead horse 14:07  |  Peter Williams 16/11/08
      28.   I see things differently 14:33  |  Angel 16/11/08
      29.   #25 peter can you explain the oz disease that moaning ann and joh 14:38  |  victor hardman 16/11/08
      30.   # 26, PALESTINIAN 15:00  |  indrajaya 16/11/08
      31.   Natalie Dumbo; Re Obama 15:16  |  ottomatik 16/11/08
      32.   Israeli Elections must be put forward .... 15:52  |  Dagma 16/11/08
      33.   p - they are fading fast 16:20  |  Mark Lincoln 16/11/08
      34.   Refugee - Yasser, he`s your baby 16:22  |  Mark Lincoln 16/11/08
      35.   #25 Peter Williams re: Maureen Ann 16:24  |  * BEN JABO 16/11/08
      36.   Palestinian - not our job 16:25  |  Mark Lincoln 16/11/08
      37.   Refugee...shooting at the wrong guy? 16:30  |  Ofer Maimon 16/11/08
      38.   Re: Natallie Durson # 7 16:32  |  Angel 16/11/08
      39.   To dante # 15 - Right you Are! 16:51  |  Dolly 16/11/08
      40.   Amos Harel, Look at the death toll for whose calling the shots 17:37  |  Dutch 16/11/08
      41.   Israel should uproot Hamas once and for all. 17:58  |  Mario Sala 16/11/08
      42.   Mark Klein: Equitable Solution, long overdue 18:25  |  Gray 16/11/08
      43.   Johnboy STILL has no clue whatsoever of what a ceasefire is 18:45  |  SDHD 16/11/08
      44.   Calling the shots! 18:48  |  Paul 16/11/08
      45.   "Unilateral" ceasefire 18:48  |  J S Brandes 16/11/08
      46.   "unilateral ceasefire" 18:52  |  J S Brandes 16/11/08
      47.   Same old Hamas tune 19:07  |  alan the real one 16/11/08
      48.   re 14 Let he without sin cast the first stone swiss. 19:14  |  alan the real one 16/11/08
      49.   re 39 Lets make a deal with indi 19:17  |  alan the real one 16/11/08
      50.   Peter Williams? mareen cnnected all the dots and you still 19:22  |  don`t see 16/11/08
      51.   angel re natalie durson she`s being nice today 19:33  |  strange 16/11/08
      52.   Analysis...it is in our hands 19:42  |  Gee 16/11/08
      53.   alan the real one..are you saying the hamas tune 19:50  |  strange 16/11/08
      54.   Angel in N.Y Re: Natalie & other Americans for just M.E. policy 20:18  |  Gray 16/11/08
      55.   #39, Should move from Virginia to Gaza 20:31  |  Gary 16/11/08
      56.   Nice try haaretz 21:19  |  joe 16/11/08
      57.   Gary; I support the country in which I live. How about you? 22:12  |  Gray 16/11/08
      58.   #54, Move to Gaza Soon 22:23  |  Gary 16/11/08
      59.   #57, That`s why I support Israel, America`s 22:54  |  Gary 16/11/08
      60.   #56. Exactly ! 22:56  |  Gary 16/11/08
      61.   Dutch, convoluted logic 22:58  |  Peter Williams 16/11/08
      62.   #57 Gray - You sure talk a lot 23:01  |  * BEN JABO 16/11/08
      63.   Re: Gray # 54 23:30  |  Angel 16/11/08
      64.   Hi Pete !! you`re right on. 23:53  |  Sarah 16/11/08
      65.   Hi Pete !! you`re right on. 23:53  |  Sarah 16/11/08
      66.   # 48 alan the real one 00:02  |  Swiss (Dino) 17/11/08
      67.   1973 ALL OVER AGAIN 00:25  |  Ian 17/11/08
      68.   #27 Peter Williams, channelling Humpty Dumpty 02:03  |  Johnboy 17/11/08
      69.   Angel Of Apartheid; Hiding barbaric policy behind "the Jews" 02:16  |  Gray 17/11/08
      70.   To Gray, the deluded nutjob in Virginia 02:45  |  Angel 17/11/08
      71.   To Livni from Rishon 04:44  |  Otto Rand 17/11/08
      72.   Gray (general posting) 05:10  |  Howard 17/11/08
      73.   Johnboy Polly want a cracker? 07:57  |  Peter Williams 17/11/08
      74.   Hello Howard...Gentleman Forum Contributor 01:54  |  Gray 19/11/08
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