Subscribe to Print Edition | Sun., November 16, 2008 Cheshvan 18, 5769 | | Israel Time: 01:52 (EST+7)   Back to Homepage web haaretz.com Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate GA 2008 Travel Week's End Anglo File

Four crises on Obama's horizon By Daniel Levy Tags: Israel News No one should be surprised that president-elect Barack Obama's first press conference, three days after his historic November 4th victory, was devoted almost exclusively to the economy. Obama was also quick to remind reporters that there is only one president at a time, and his turn does not begin until January 20. While domestic challenges will dominate his agenda, a not-insignificant list of Middle East crises will confront America's 44th president as well. Here are four of the more urgent issues in which Israel has a keen interest, and which are likely to force themselves onto the Obama team transition agenda and its early days in office. Why not start with the issue closest to home, with Israel's upcoming February 11 election? Recent American presidents have had a decidedly mixed record of intervention in Israeli elections. President Bill Clinton hastily convened the March 1996 Summit of Peacemakers at Sharm el-Sheikh, but it did not save Shimon Peres in the polls that May. Clinton was more effective in ensnaring a peace-shy prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the Wye River Memorandum - paving the way to Netanyahu's downfall and Ehud Barak's May 1999 election victory. Before that, president George H.W. Bush tripped up Yitzhak Shamir on the issue of settlements, assisting Yitzhak Rabin in Israel's 1992 vote. A new president, however, is unlikely to dip his hand in the shark-infested waters of Israeli politics, certainly not on Day 1, especially since the possible impact would be hard to predict. The Obama team would be best advised to simply remind Israelis of its own standpoint: a commitment to two states and to advancing the peace process "from the minute I'm sworn into office" (Obama in Amman, July 2008). To forget this pledge until after February 10 would in itself be an intervention of sorts, and an unwelcome one. Will Kadima, Labor or Meretz be able to ride the wave of Obama expectations? That will be for them to attempt and for the voters to decide. Advertisement Another upcoming Middle East election the new American president will have to navigate is in Iran, where presidential polls are scheduled for June 2009. The tricky balancing act here will be, on the one hand, not to lose time testing direct engagement with Iran, an Obama election pledge, while, at the same time, doing nothing that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could use to strengthen his own re-election efforts. Paradoxically, a less threatening, more open-for-business tone from the U.S. may be the best way to undermine Ahmadinejad. Direct talks with Ahmadinejad are very unlikely to feature on the immediate Obama to-do list, and would almost certainly be ill advised. In any event, he is not the key address for diplomatic approaches. That would more likely be supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Expect discreet feelers and exploratory contacts with key Khamenei confidants, such as Ali Akbar Velayati and Ali Larijani, and expect not to know that they are taking place. Israel's best posture on this is surely to avoid any public disagreement with the U.S. on Iran, to ensure that Israel has input into the agenda for talks, and to give American-Iranian negotiations a real chance, as the best option for addressing our concerns. For Syria, a two-year waiting game ends on Inauguration Day. President Bashar al-Assad apparently decided some time ago that his best bet was to wait out the implacable opposition of French president Jacques Chirac and American president Bush. Syria has recently prepared for this day, for instance by relaunching peace talks with Israel via Turkish mediation, by assuming a constructive role regarding Lebanon, and by moving closer to Europe, most notably to Chirac's successor, Nicolas Sarkozy. In some senses, Syria is seen as low-hanging fruit for a U.S. re-engagement that would reshuffle Middle East alliances in its favor. After all, Syria is a relevant player when it comes to Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian arena. A reorientation of Syria's policies will not take place overnight or following a brief diplomatic flirtation. But a new approach to U.S.-Syria bilateral relations, with reasonably calibrated benchmarks and including American support for Israeli-Syrian talks, stands a good chance of success. Look out for early indications of that change. Finally, how to deal with Palestinian internal politics? One of the more devastating legacies of the Bush years was the failure to constructively navigate the Palestinian transition away from the strongman rule of Yasser Arafat and the single-party domination of Fatah. A stable Palestine and sustainable peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis cannot be built on a divided Palestinian house. The American position has been one of encouraging Palestinian division. That needs to change urgently, not by an Obama administration directly engaging Hamas, but by it discreetly signaling an end to the American veto on Palestinian national reconciliation along lines similar to the Saudi-brokered Mecca deal of February 2007. Given the stop-start Palestinian talks now being brokered by Egypt, there might be some urgency to the American policy re-think on this issue - the peace process is deeply flawed in its absence. Of course, Iraq will loom largest when president-elect Obama turns his attention to the Middle East - and therein lies the core challenge: Will the next administration, unlike its predecessor, appreciate both the extent and the nature of the interconnectivity between the region's varied crises? The signs at least are encouraging. Daniel Levy, a senior fellow at the New America and Century Foundations, was previously an adviser in the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, and the lead Israeli drafter of the Geneva Initiative. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Enough is enough Livni says time will come when Israel tells Gaza militants: Enough! Oxbridge anti-Semitism Report: Oxford students face anti-Semitism charges over 'pretty Jewish girls' party.

Read & React Israel infuriated by U.K. plan to distinctly label West Bank produce Responses: 586 Rahm Emanuel apologizes for father's disparaging remarks about Arabs Responses: 216 In 2006 letter to Bush, Hamas' Haniyeh offered compromise with Israel Responses: 184 Olmert: Israel will not reconcile with Gaza rocket fire Responses: 219 IDF soldiers filmed humiliating bound Palestinian face court martial Responses: 102 More Headlines 01:04 Report suggests Obama press Israel over nuclear program 01:25 Ceasefire shaky after western Negev struck by 17 missiles 15:26 Russia seeking to purchase Israeli-made spy planes 01:47 ANALYSIS / As Israel's leaders bicker, Hamas is calling the shots 20:38 Lebanon approves security coordination with Syria 23:59 GA special feature / An online battle for Israel's legitimacy 16:41 GA Magazine / Failing the taste test 15:47 GA special report / Anti-graft group calls for suspension of UJC Israel chief 22:40 Abbas calls Gaza blockade 'war crime' as UN closes food aid centers 21:44 Founder of Israeli NRA seeks to import American gun culture 11:51 Olmert: Israel will not tolerate Gaza rocket fire 22:53 Israel infuriated by U.K. plan to label West Bank produce 05:25 Rahm Emanuel apologizes for father's disparaging remarks about Arabs 09:12 In 2006 letter to Bush, Haniyeh offered compromise with Israel 08:04 How white were the Israelites? Facial reconstruction may be surprising 07:24 Barak approved settlement expansion despite Road Map Previous Editions Select Day 14 nov 13 nov 12 nov 11 nov 10 nov 09 nov 07 nov 06 nov 05 nov 04 nov 03 nov 02 nov

Special Offers Advertisement Living in Israel Studying in English Click & Meet our students from all around the world Dan Boutique Jerusalem New Dan Hotel in Jerusalem Young, Fun & Distinctively Dan Book Now Online! Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. Car rental in Israel Shlomo Sixt Receive $15.00 from our low rates. Dial 013 for your long-distance calls and get all your money back US CITIZENS Vote for real change. Request your ballot today! Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Jewish Singles Personal Ads Find the love of your life on JDate.com Israel's Premier Real Estate Website www. israel-property.com Hebrew Summer courses From $39.95 Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved