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The migraine that is Migron By Aluf Benn Tags: West Bank, Palestinian  Nothing underscores the government's weakness and its capitulation to the settlers more than the continued existence of the illegal outposts, as promises for their evacuation, made to the Americans, are continually broken. At present, the one person paying the political price of this state of affairs is Ehud Barak, whose Labor Party is steadily fading in the polls. Barak did not create the problem, but as defense minister, charged with responsibility for the territories, and as Labor chairman, the supposed head of the peace camp - he should be leading the charge against the outposts. But he doesn't. Apparently, he feels a certain kinship with the settlers, and this sufficed to arouse the left's old suspicions about Barak: that he was and remains a hard-headed, security-minded type. Most Labor voters have no idea where the outposts are located, who lives there and whom they're bothering. To the left, the outposts symbolize the occupation; to the right, they embody Israel's hold on the land. Advertisement In the wake of recent escalation in violence by some extremist settlers against Israel Defense Forces soldiers, police and Palestinian olive harvesters, Barak convened several meetings with various law-enforcement authorities, reestablished the "territories forum" and issued several harsh statements. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has also joined the verbal fight against the settlers. Ten days ago, he succeeded in getting a decision passed in the government, aimed at strengthening law enforcement in the territories and including a call for ending both direct and indirect support for the outposts. It's hard to believe that the outgoing government, so close to its dissolution, will now start arresting violent settlers and go after the outposts. Predictably, the Yesha Council of settlements in Judea and Samaria does not seem too concerned about the situation. Although there is no state budget for the outposts, the army still guards their residents, regardless of their legal standing. Barak knew what he was getting himself into when he went after the post of defense minister. According to the data presented by his bureau, there has been an increase in measures taken to prevent illegal construction in the settlements, there were three aerial sorties in the past year to identify such construction, dozens of trailers illegally brought into the territories were confiscated, restraining orders were issued against violent individuals, and building plans for settlements with residents involved in violence and with construction irregularities were frozen. While this may be more than what was done in previous years, it hasn't been enough to demonstrate any clear change on the ground. A 'problematic test' The main constraint on Barak's policy has been the reluctance of the Israel Defense Forces, the police and the Shin Bet security service to take on the job of evacuating settlers and outposts. They're still smarting from the wounds of the Gaza disengagement and the razing of houses in Amona, on the eve of the last elections. Analyst Yagil Levy wrote in Haaretz ("The IDF is Disintegrating," Nov. 5) that the army is worried about losing control of its forces in the West Bank, as many among its ranks are settlers or their supporters. The proportion of religious soldiers in combat units has been steadily increasing and now outstrips their proportion among the general population. If their motivation is undercut and they become estranged from the army, it will be harder to demand that they fulfill more important defense missions. This problem is not just numerical - it's symbolic. For example, the widow of Major Ro'i Klein, a hero of the Second Lebanon War, who jumped on a grenade and saved his troops from the explosion, lives in an illegal outpost attached to the Eli settlement. Who will be ready to go stand before her and insist that she leave her home? Behind closed doors, security officials confirm that they are concerned about putting religious combat soldiers to a "problematic test." The system tries to make it easier for them, by putting blue-uniformed police on the frontlines of those executing an evacuation, followed by a second ring of Border Police, thereby leaving the IDF in the outer circle. Although it's not always possible, an effort is made to take the soldiers' feelings into account and not to test their loyalty to the mission. Barak has tried to navigate the narrow space between the constraints imposed from the left - the promises made to the Americans and the expectations of his supporters - and those from the right: the fear of a rift in the army. The compromise he has adopted is made up of three components: preventing the establishment of new outposts, moving residents of older outposts into approved settlements by consent, and allowing construction beyond the Green Line by using a carrot-and-stick approach vis-a-vis the settlers. Barak and Olmert's construction policy in the West Bank was to build settlements west of the separation fence while adopting a "live and let live" attitude to the east. That is, to approve the construction of a number of public buildings and schools, or industrial areas that also employ Palestinians. The Yesha Council is complaining that it has become impossible to absorb new residents, and that apartment prices in Ofra have skyrocketed because of the demand. Peace Now, of course, presents the opposite picture, and reports that construction is continuing apace beyond the fence. Eitan Broshi, Barak's advisor on settlement affairs, is the person in charge of the ministerial "settlement portfolio." He is a product of the kibbutz movement, and a battalion commander in the reserves, whose father was a Golani battalion commander in the War of Independence. He was the aide of Yaakov Tzur, the agriculture minister in Yitzhak Rabin's government; and served as director general of the Science, Culture and Sports Ministry under Ofer Pines-Paz. The formative experiences of his life were the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which he fought as a company commander on Mount Hermon, and Rabin's assassination. Barak brought him to the Defense Ministry after Raleb Majadele took over the top spot at the Science Ministry. The settlers consider Broshi to be "one of theirs." But Broshi is an establishment man and vigorously opposes violations of the law. He believes illegal settlement must be stopped, and that locales with residents who attack soldiers and police cannot be left in peace. It's hard for him to agree with the government policy that has allowed outposts to grow despite its commitment to dismantle them. Barak and Broshi chose to embark on a dialogue with the Yesha Council, as the representative body of the settlers, and not with each outpost family individually. Here, too, they ran into a problem: After the disengagement, Yesha's old leadership lost some of its authority, and the hilltop youths assumed a stance of alienation from the state and its institutions. Biggest challenge The deal Barak proposed to the Yesha Council was to receive the consent of the outposts' residents to move into nearby settlements where construction has been authorized. The "carrot" was that the number of Jews in the West Bank would not change, only their location. "There has been no decision to evacuate Jews from the West Bank," Defense Ministry officials stress. The stick was greater restrictions in issuing construction permits in the authorized settlements. Of the 26 outposts Israel pledged to the Americans to evacuate, three have been evacuated by consent, and another one - Hazon David, near Kiryat Arba - was evacuated by force and then reestablished several times afterward. The challenge was the biggest settlement of all, Migron, which was built six years ago on a hilltop in the Ramallah area, and is home to 46 families. Migron was built on private Palestinian land, and Peace Now decided to turn it into the symbol of the theft of Palestinian lands and their dispossession with state approval. The movement and the landowners petitioned the High Court of Justice over two years ago, requesting that the outpost be dismantled. The state immediately admitted that Migron was established without permission, on stolen land. Ever since, requests have been made repeatedly that the judges delay evacuation of the outpost. The court acceded to the requests and did not force the state to act. The Shin Bet and the police have told Barak that the matter must be handled with caution. At a recent meeting, Olmert and Barak decided that Migron would be moved to the new neighborhood being planned within the jurisdiction of the nearby Adam settlement, east of the separation fence. This won't happen right away: The site is still in the planning stages at the Housing Ministry, and construction has yet to begin. The state is supposed to finance preparation of the basic infrastructure, while the settlers will finance construction of the houses. "The advantage of this arrangement is that the outpost will be moved from its present location. The disadvantage is that it will take time," say Defense Ministry officials. "The Yesha Council has committed itself to doing whatever it takes to hasten the transition." Olmert had just one request: to postpone announcing the agreement to the High Court until after the recent Sharm el-Sheikh summit meeting of the Middle East Quartet. The state requested another extension before presenting the agreement. The prolonged negotiations Broshi conducted eventually resulted in an agreement with the settlement leadership about moving Migron. It could be argued in Broshi's favor that he defused a particularly volatile problem and managed to avoid a confrontation, while also ensuring compliance with the law at an outpost that has become a symbol. Against that is the argument that the state is trying to bribe those who stole the land and is giving them land for free because it's afraid of a violent confrontation. Either way, it is doubtful whether the agreement will actually be carried out. Migron residents are not a party to it and are not enthusiastic about it, though they did not disrupt the negotiations. They like their present location and have already turned to the court to request land-use rights. The Yesha Council says, "In our view, Migron should stay where it is. If there's a problem with the land, it should be resolved," but the council is still willing to give the agreement with the Defense Ministry a chance. The question is, who will be prepared to deal with this issue after the elections, and how much time will it take for the planning of the new neighborhood for the evacuees to be completed - if ever. The settlers apparently feel that if the stalling continues, they'll eventually be left alone and Migron will remain in place. Broshi had suggested to Barak that after the Migron agreement, another four or five outposts could be evacuated. In the meantime, violence has reared its head and the focus of public debate has shifted from the outposts to dealing with the rioters. Barak understood, belatedly it seems, that the situation could erupt and that the settlers' attempt to buy quiet is threatening his political survival. Meanwhile, his conduct holds an important lesson for the next government. Bookmark to del.icio.us   The King is dead Archeologists find new evidence for King Herod's tomb site. Al-Hasbara Israel launches Arabic YouTube channel to bypass Arab media.

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