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Avoiding a worst-case scenario By Amos Harel & Avi Issacharoff Tags: Gaza, Gilad Shalit  The visit on Tuesday by the prime minister, defense minister and Israel Defense Forces chief of staff to the Gaza Strip border reflected an unusual consensus among them: that Israel has no interest in a war in Gaza right now. The bad blood between Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak, over the breakup of the government forced by Barak, is still there, but when it comes to Gaza, the two see eye to eye. The southern front is a relatively low priority, compared to the risks posed by a potential conflagration with Hezbollah and Syria on the northern border. Even when G., head of the Shin Bet security service's southern district, warned of the danger of Hamas building itself up during the truce, an IDF officer hastened to interrupt. We've also sent units to do training exercises during this period, he reminded the dicussion participants. Last March, during a fierce round of fighting on the Gaza border, Olmert considered authorizing a major operation, but was outflanked on the left by Barak and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, both of whom blocked the move. It wasn't far from there to the declaration of a temporary tahadiyeh (cease-fire) at the end of June. Since then, Olmert has said on several occasions that he did not know of "a single general" who recommended a broad ground operation in Gaza. This isn't completely accurate: The commander of the Gaza division, Brigadier General Moshe (Chico) Tamir, who finished his tenure yesterday, did support such a plan. And the GOC Southern Command, Yoav Galant, also advocates a more aggressive stance in Gaza. Some of the command's recent moves on the southern border have also created some tension with the General Staff, which suspected that the command exceeded the boundaries of the sector outlined for it. But Tamir and Galant are in the minority, and they know it. As long as it's up to Israel, the quiet will continue. Advertisement But not everything is up to Israel. December 19 will mark the six-month anniversary of the truce going into effect; on January 9, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), will complete his term, at least according to Hamas' interpretation. According to that organization, the cease-fire was only supposed to last six months, with its continuation contingent upon an agreement to extend it to the West Bank. Major General (res.) Amos Gilad, the Israeli representative in the negotiations conducted with Egyptian mediation, distributed a document to senior officials in the defense establishment, in which he explained that the unwritten agreement between the parties did not mention any "expiration date" for the truce or any understanding about its application to the West Bank. The Egyptian mediators also said recently that all they did was promise to make an effort with regard to the West Bank. Hamas restraint The feeling at Southern Command is that Hamas needs quiet in order to solidify its grip on Gaza and is not interested in escalation. Military Intelligence is more skeptical, for one thing because the smaller factions seem to be losing patience, but mainly because of the crisis between Hamas and Fatah. If no agreement is reached between them soon, some intelligence officials fear that an internal Palestinian clash (which would play out primarily in the West Bank, since Fatah is no longer a presence in Gaza) could also trigger renewed rocket fire from Gaza into the Negev. In any event, the IDF is readying itself to contend with the worst-case scenario. The Southern and Home Front Commands are completing preparations in the event that fighting is renewed. The current round of violence, which began on November 4 with the IDF operation to uncover a tunnel by the Kissufim crossing, is nearing its end. It appears that Hamas decided from the outset to show restraint in response to the action, in which six members of its military wing were killed. The organization did fire a barrage of about 30 rockets at the Negev the following day, but almost all of the rockets, which were fired within a few seconds, landed in open areas. When it so wishes, Hamas is capable of firing with some accuracy at the center of Sderot. Israel showed restraint, too: During the operation, unmanned aircraft identified dozens of armed Hamas men approaching a Paratroops force that had surrounded a Palestinian house close to where the tunnel was discovered. The Israelis were under orders to fire only in the event of concrete danger to the troops, and thus any large-scale killing was prevented. At the same time, an examination of the operation found certain flaws. The paratroopers were apparently spotted by the enemy relatively early. As they approached the house, Hamas men blew up one of the walls. Israel is still concerned about other tunnels that have been dug near the border, and about Hamas' growing involvement in attempts to smuggle terrorists through Egyptian Sinai into the Negev. On the home front, the latest escalation was handled relatively smoothly. There has been consistent improvement in the coordination between the army and the local councils and municipalities, and the residents can feel the difference. The IDF won't be shedding any tears over the departure of Sderot mayor Eli Moyal, who did not run for re-election this week. There has been much tension and many mutual recriminations between them in recent years, but the mayor's colleagues, who met with Olmert and Barak prior to the elections, took a clear position in favor of continuing the truce. One critical question remains unresolved: the return of Gilad Shalit. Hamas, which wants to advance other issues in relation to Egypt and Fatah, isn't too interested in accelerating the negotiations. Israel, too, despite the frequent warnings from Barak and Ashkenazi, does not seem in any hurry to close a deal. Olmert recently expressed reservations concerning not only the identity of the terrorists whom Hamas wishes to have released, but also their number - about 1,450. There is plenty of logic to the Israeli leadership's position in favor of the quiet in the south, but certain questions must still be asked: Has the quiet been exploited properly to advance progress on a Shalit deal? To present Gaza residents with a more positive alternative? Or even to speed up the physical reinforcement of the communities surrounding the Strip? The answer to all of these seems to be no. We're not like them The reconciliation summit between Hamas and Fatah, which was supposed to take place this week in Cairo, was canceled after Hamas refused to send its delegation. Abbas, who gave a forceful speech at the Muqata in Ramallah on Tuesday, at a rally marking the fourth anniversary of Yasser Arafat's death, placed full blame for the crisis on Hamas. The more than 10,000 people in attendance cheered him at length, and showered him with the kind of love that was once reserved solely for Arafat. When Abbas talked about Hamas, the crowd responded with the chant "Shi'a, Shi'a," hinting at the affinity between Gaza and Iran. The president asked for calm. "There is no need for such slogans," he gently scolded the throng. "We are not like them. We will not call anyone a heretic or a traitor." Unlike the Arafat memorial ceremonies of two and three years ago, this time no armed gang dared to demonstrate a presence. The police officers searched bags, directed traffic to the nearby streets and controlled the crowd, which was composed largely of young people from all over the West Bank, high-school and university students with fashionable jeans and plenty of gel in their hair, firm believers in the Fatah path. At one point, the crowd was pressing on the fences in an attempt to get closer to Abu Mazen, and three youths passed out. Public opinion surveys from the past months indicate a steady improvement in Fatah's standing in the West Bank, and in support for Abbas in particular. But many senior Fatah officials, veterans of the first and second intifadas, feel Abbas and his people made critical mistakes that the organization will soon be paying for. "There is a stream within the security forces and in Fatah that does whatever the Americans and Israelis tell it to do. They are responsible for the crisis with Hamas," says one of these officials. "These people are turning us into the Palestinian version of Lahad's army [refering to General Antoine Lahad, commander of the South Lebanon Army]. Instead of a diplomatic process accompanied by security coordination, there are orders from Israel. The peace negotiations haven't gone any further than the pictures of Abu Mazen with Olmert. Fatah is losing on all fronts: We lost the parliament and Gaza to Hamas. The government is not in our hands. It's in the hands of the people with Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who is not a member of the movement. The security forces have also gotten out of our control." This same official says Hamas reneged on its agreement to attend the Cairo summit, because it sees Fatah's weakness. The refusal to attend evoked very negative responses among the Palestinian public, but Hamas "has the sense that the PLO is like a car after an accident, with another part falling off for every few meters it travels. Hamas is waiting for the car to stop completely. The peace process following Annapolis failed, the elections in the United States made clear that relations between Washington and Damascus will soon thaw. Hamas may also have a chance to get closer to the West. Why should it be in any hurry?" The conduct of both organizations is creating frustration among the public in the territories. Hamas is perceived as extremist and dangerous; Fatah, once a proud national movement, is perceived as a collaborator with Israel. The Fatah official tells of a surprising surge in popularity for the radical Islamic Hizb al-Tahrir ("Liberation Party"). Last Monday, at the elections for the parents committee at a high school in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Jabel Mukaber, the Liberation Party won all 15 seats. Bookmark to del.icio.us   The King is dead Archeologists find new evidence for King Herod's tomb site. Al-Hasbara Israel launches Arabic YouTube channel to bypass Arab media.

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