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Last update - 00:00 12/11/2008
On a collision course with Obama
By Amir Oren
Tags: Netanyahu, Livni, Obama 

The election of Barack Obama as president is a political event in more than one country. Three weeks after Obama is sworn into office, Israel will choose a new Knesset, which will then attempt to create from within it a new cabinet, headed by either Tzipi Livni or Benjamin Netanyahu.

Obama will be forced to wait until the end of the internal struggle and the establishment of a new government before he knows the identity of his new partner; but it is critical for Israeli voters to know now, as part of the information with which they calculate how to vote, whether the candidates for prime minister are on a course for collision or discussion with Obama.

The traffic reports say Livni is driving alongside Obama, and Netanyahu is approaching him head-on. Israelis do not like leaders who look weak or submissive, especially toward the Arabs. But they like even less leaders who invite a blowup with the U.S. and a steamroller of pressures, economic, diplomatic and military.
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Livni represents the Israeli willingness to continue with the peace process. That is the conclusion one can draw from her participation in the Sharm el-Sheikh conference earlier this week, and from her telephone conversation two days ago with Obama's vice-presidential choice, Joe Biden. After the two got past the congratulations and good wishes, they spoke about Iran and the peace process, and her flight last night to New York for an interfaith event whose significance lies in the Saudi involvement.

Condoleezza Rice made it clear at Sharm that she intends to present the Obama administration with a "going business," ready to continue without any problem. Rice explains away the Bush administration's refusal to do the same with the Clinton legacy eight years ago using the excuses of Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat: Arafat was plagued with terror and corruption, and Sharon - the "father of the settlements," as Rice calls him - only warmed incrementally to the idea of Bush's plan to establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Sharon, in other words, avoided a confrontation with Bush.

Can Netanyahu avoid a confrontation with Obama? Not if he remains faithful to his present platform, which disagrees with negotiating with the Palestinians on the core issues of the conflict. This may be a good platform for convincing Benny Begin to return to the Likud, but if Netanyahu is courting Obama, then it is like sending a bouquet of thorns.

Netanyahu may very well claim that he is in the middle between Dan Meridor and Benny Begin. The former left the Likud and moved left, and the other departed and moved right - and both have now returned. This is double-talk that does not solve the real problem in Netanyahu-Obama relations: Are they of the same mind, or head to head?

Netanyahu's solution is to ignore the problem. If there is no peace process, then there will be no need for difficult decisions. Netanyahu will try to sell Obama a step-by-step and slow arrangement - but before that, Netanyahu will try to attract voters from Kadima based on his anticipated success in his convincing Obama of the same in the future.

First of all, Iran. Next Syria, and only in third and last place come the Palestinians. Even with the two tasks that entail an Israeli withdrawal - as opposed to the elimination of the Iranian threat, which is an Israeli demand - there would be an internal division into intermediate steps of prolonged cease-fire or armistice in return for partial evacuation of occupied territories. The Arab sides would not be asked to give up everything - a full peace; nor would Israel be required to provide it all either - a full evacuation.

If the formula sounds familiar, that is because it has already been tried - and failed. In the mid-1970s, during the Nixon and Ford administrations, Henry Kissinger and Yitzhak Rabin preferred to advance the peace negotiations step by step, one side at a time. Every Arab country was dealt with separately, the PLO was an untouchable abomination, and each stage was a small and hesitant jump. There was no single, daring - or possibly foolish - leap.

Jimmy Carter, then as today a Democrat entering office following eight years of Republican rule, threw out the method and strived for a regional agreement at a multi-lateral summit, and speeeded up Anwar Sadat on his journey to Jerusalem. Menachem Begin, an earlier version of Netanyahu, dropped his political platform out of fears of a confrontation with Carter. Netanyahu will be forced to decide which Begin he really is: the father or the son.

Netanyahu will have to decide between two choices: Either he mocks his voters by telling them he can not only give less and get more, but can also put off the end of the bargaining; or he intends to fall on his sword in a duel with Obama - a fall that will crush Israel. Iran will not help him. The deterioration in the position of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will allow Obama to put off, until after next June's presidential election in Iran, a decision on whether to keep his promise to talk to the leaders in Tehran, or whether to order a military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. By next summer there may well be a new president there, perhaps someone more moderate.

The negotiations with the Syrians and Palestinians will not be so kind as to wait in a deep freeze for summer and for Iran, and not even for Obama. Putting Netanyahu behind the wheel, driving head on toward Obama, means a collision.
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  1.   Any Israeli PM will be on a collision course with Obama 08:39  |  Natallie Durson 12/11/08
  2.   And a Livni win will put Israel in Obama`s pocket 08:40  |  Zev 12/11/08
  3.   mr oren it is now time to stop the rot and get real 08:54  |  victor hardman 12/11/08
  4.   Slippery Slope Ahead 08:59  |  Yosemite 12/11/08
  5.   Israel is a sovereign State, and must have its OWN foreign policy 09:28  |  Yaakov K. 12/11/08
  6.   BIBI WILL NEED ANOTHER 11/9 TO FIGHT OBAMA 09:42  |  indrajaya 12/11/08
  7.   Yaakov K 09:50  |  Scott G 12/11/08
  8.   Would Obama put a Netanyahu administration under pressure ???? 10:44  |  Swiss (Dino) 12/11/08
  9.   Obama+Quartet know what Pal demands are, they haven`t changed 10:57  |  Sam 12/11/08
  10.   no offense, but; this is one of the most amateur analysis ever... 11:27  |  El 12/11/08
  11.   So it is. Thank you Natalie Durson for your wise words 11:33  |  Edith 12/11/08
  12.   # 8, SWISS (DINO) 11:36  |  indrajaya 12/11/08
  13.   "...a duel with Obama - a fall that will crush Israel." 12:00  |  Matt C 12/11/08
  14.   #7 Scott: Ok, Also No More Arms Sales to Egypt and Saudi Arabia 12:25  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 12/11/08
  15.   #8 Dino: Clinton *DID* Punish Netanyahu with Disastrous Results 12:36  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 12/11/08
  16.   Israel can`t tell the US what to do. Return the favor 12:53  |  Ilan 12/11/08
  17.   Obama made his priority clear in his first press conference 14:47  |  Realist 12/11/08
  18.   #16 Ilan 14:48  |  Chris Linthwaite 12/11/08
  19.   SO WHAT! Is this for PM of Israel or Servant of US!? 14:58  |  Ben S 12/11/08
  20.   Wrong, wrong, wrong...Obama may prefer Netanyahu 15:31  |  Casper 12/11/08
  21.   There Is No Difference 15:51  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  22.   On a collision course? It`s Obama choice... 15:53  |  bat yam 12/11/08
  23.   Casper, Hitler`words could be trusted too. 16:00  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  24.   Gibberish 16:05  |  Jeff Northridge 12/11/08
  25.   Amir Oren`s -"analysis" 16:24  |  Veronica Vita 12/11/08
  26.   Palestinians on a collision course with Obama 16:25  |  Joe Sittizen 12/11/08
  27.   Jeff Northridge on Peace Agreements 16:38  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  28.   Yaakov Sullivan choosing his words.. 16:40  |  Casper 12/11/08
  29.   Joe Stittzen on Hamas 16:47  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  30.   Appeasers are down to their last argument 16:48  |  Realist 12/11/08
  31.   You have to wonder if the HAMAS press corps puts out stuff like 16:52  |  Jacob Blues 12/11/08
  32.   "Collision Course?" 16:55  |  Stuart 12/11/08
  33.   Yaacov at his finest, only Jews are bad, and only Arabs have 16:57  |  Jacob Blues 12/11/08
  34.   Yaacov Sullivan and de-facto governments 17:02  |  Jacob Blues 12/11/08
  35.   Casper and His Conclusions 17:30  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  36.   Jacob Blues on the good ole boys 17:37  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  37.   Jacob Blues Seems Not to be listening 17:41  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  38.   Yaakov, you are aware btw... 18:03  |  Casper 12/11/08
  39.   I sure hope Mr. Oren is right 18:05  |  Gee 12/11/08
  40.   No, Casper, it does not go for me 18:19  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  41.   Don`t worry about Obama 18:25  |  Mike 12/11/08
  42.   Us Palestinians should all vote for Nathanyahu, 18:37  |  Monnaff 12/11/08
  43.   DAMN THE TORPEDOES, FULL SPEED AHEAD! 18:40  |  Barry S. Roffman 12/11/08
  44.   Can anybody able to cost the amount of money spending 18:44  |  Elizabeth 12/11/08
  45.   #17 realist, the only way for peace is to go back 18:54  |  Immat 12/11/08
  46.   # 12 indrajaya, I`m afraid Obama would have to be a "Hercules"... 19:29  |  Swiss (Dino) 12/11/08
  47.   # 15 Ovadiah, don`t you worry too much..... 19:33  |  Swiss (Dino) 12/11/08
  48.   Yaakov Sullivan # 27 The Point Was... 19:41  |  Jeff Northridge 12/11/08
  49.   Immat from Karachi 45 20:13  |  Realist 12/11/08
  50.   Obama Needs A Collision To Set his Head Straight 20:20  |  UsedToPostHere 12/11/08
  51.   Jeff Northridge on Borders 20:24  |  Yaakov Sullivan 12/11/08
  52.   No Peace For Israel 20:25  |  Bill Burgess 12/11/08
  53.   Realist what are you talking about 20:49  |  Dave Duncan 12/11/08
  54.   To Edith #11--When you will have your "spiritual Israel" 21:19  |  Historian 12/11/08
  55.   Americans will wash their hands of Israel if Netanyahu wins 21:27  |  Dutch 12/11/08
  56.   #52 Bill one question 21:35  |  David G 12/11/08
  57.   #24 Jeff and his own Gibberish ad infinitum 21:54  |  Labhras 12/11/08
  58.   Interesting Article in Newsweek About This 22:09  |  Jane 12/11/08
  59.   Don`t Underestimate Obama 22:22  |  Ed 12/11/08
  60.   #277 yaakovs long layoff have made him more erratic than ever 22:53  |  victor hardman 12/11/08
  61.   Obama won`t collide with anybody 23:07  |  peter 12/11/08
  62.   Netanyahu is BEST 23:31  |  Friend 12/11/08
  63.   Netanyahu is BEST 23:43  |  Friend 12/11/08
  64.   G-d`s roadmap equals no collision course 23:53  |  nuchem 12/11/08
  65.   Rare insight 23:58  |  Baz Mann 12/11/08
  66.   Yaakov Sullivan # 51 What Confiscations? 00:20  |  Jeff Northridge 13/11/08
  67.   Netanyahu, Neither A Friend Nor Partner 00:32  |  Gray 13/11/08
  68.   The back-route messages to Iran have already began 00:32  |  Pablo B 13/11/08
  69.   WOW 01:13  |  Jon M. 13/11/08
  70.   Agree 100% with Ed. 01:16  |  Jon M. 13/11/08
  71.   more and more of the same 01:31  |  Arie 13/11/08
  72.   Ed # 55 Obama`s Mandate 01:47  |  Jeff Northridge 13/11/08
  73.   64, Peace initiative 02:32  |  Max 13/11/08
  74.   Oren`s muddled about Carter, Kissinger -- and Netanyahu 03:11  |  DJStahl 13/11/08
  75.   Exactly the reason to vote Netanyahu 03:44  |  Yuval 13/11/08
  76.   LIVNI AND OBAMA ARE DEFEATISTS WHO SURRENDER TO TERRORISTS 05:42  |  HENRY MANN 13/11/08
  77.   Bibi 07:27  |  Piccolo 13/11/08
  78.   What is so wrong with Olmert`s plan? 07:43  |  Daniel Garcia 13/11/08
  79.   rather die than give it back? 07:46  |  jake 13/11/08
  80.   69 Jeff Northridge - Your self-contradiction 09:06  |  Pablo B 13/11/08
  81.   #2 Zev - In the pocket or under the hammer? 09:33  |  Argo 13/11/08
  82.   #21 Yaakov Sullivan 09:54  |  Jim 13/11/08
  83.   Censoring legitimate viewpoints - the essence of this paper 00:03  |  Gábor Fränkl 25/11/08
  84.   Obama and Isreal 23:29  |  Unknown 08/01/09
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Responses: 20
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Responses: 24
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