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Last update - 07:42 02/11/2008
ANALYSIS / Both Fatah and Hamas are avoiding blame
By Avi Isaacharoff
Tags: Israel News, Fatah 

On Thursday Hamas released 17 Fatah members from its jails as a goodwill gesture in advance of next week's meeting in Cairo, at which all the Palestinian factions are slated to sign a framework reconciliation agreement. However, Palestinian analysts are divided over whether this agreement will actually lead to full reconciliation and the formation of a unity government that includes both Hamas and Fatah and encompasses both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

On Thursday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas announced that he would personally lead the Fatah delegation to Cairo, a seeming demonstration of serious intent to reach an agreement. But in private conversations PA officials said that Fatah's main goal is to avoid being blamed for thwarting the reconciliation. Fatah has no intention of bringing Hamas into a unity government, they said, and it certainly does not intend to integrate Hamas into the Palestinian Authority security services - which are currently busy arresting Hamas members throughout the West Bank.

Hamas, for its part, seems unenthusiastic about giving up its exclusive rule in Gaza, and it will certainly not agree to dismantle its military wing. In fact, it has explicitly said that it will not accept the Egyptian proposal as it stands.
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Thus it seems that for both Fatah and Hamas, the main goal will be to blame the other for the talks' breakdown. Both will probably sign the Egyptian document, which calls for a new unity government ruling both Gaza and the West Bank, early parliamentary and presidential elections and comprehensive reform of the PA security services. Nevertheless, this program seems unlikely to be implemented anytime soon.

From a technical standpoint, the most problematic provision is reforming the security services. How would a new government go about forming new security services to replace those now operating in the West Bank and Gaza? What would it do with the thousands of Hamas members now enrolled in quasi-military organizations in Gaza? Egypt's proposal says that five committees comprised of both Hamas and Fatah members would decide these issues. But Fatah fears that the devil will prove to be in the details, and that Hamas will try to bury the issue in endless committee discussions.

The PA-affiliated paper Al-Ayyam reported this weekend that Egypt plans to set a one-month deadline for the committees' work, and if no agreement is reached by then the Arab League will issue a formal statement attributing blame to one of the organizations. But it is hard to see the various Arab states, which have traditionally refrained from dramatic, unequivocal rulings, making an exception in this case. Condemning Hamas would push the organization even further into Iran's arms, while condemning Fatah might fatally undermine Abbas' legitimacy in the territories.

Nevertheless, the diplomatic freeze engendered by the upcoming Israeli elections might yet lead Abbas to decide on a historic reconciliation with Hamas. If so, Gaza and the West Bank would be reunited under a unity government, and Israel would then face a difficult decision - whether or not to sever relations with this government.

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