Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., November 06, 2008 Cheshvan 8, 5769 | | Israel Time: 23:34 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Haaretz Toolbar Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate U.S. election Travel Week's End Anglo File

And for their next act ... By Yossi Verter Tags: elections, Benjamin Netanyahu  When someone told Tzipi Livni that Ehud Barak's Labor Party had polled the equivalent of 10 Knesset seats in the latest public-opinion surveys, she burst out laughing. She has a healthy, rolling laugh. She will not say, as Ehud Olmert did in 2006, that "Kadima has already won this election, the question is by how much" - she is too cautious for that. And besides, Barak is not her problem. Her problem is Benjamin Netanyahu. The 2009 election season, the first in Israel's history in which a serving prime minister will not be running, opens with a deadlock between the Likud and Kadima. Barak can go around saying that Kadima is an "atmosphere party," and that "in the end" the people will understand who managed the country during the past year, who preserved the Supreme Court and who brought about calm in the territories. Factually, Barak is right. But at this early stage in the campaign, Livni is fighting to become prime minister, and Barak is fighting for his political life. As well as for the fate of the Labor Party, which is liable to find itself in the same position the Likud did in the last elections, with 12 Knesset seats, give or take. Livni comes across as something of a protest candidate, almost an outsider, even though she was an integral part of the outgoing government. Barak, who returned to the system just over a year ago, looks shopworn. Livni succeeded in recreating herself and her party; Barak is entangled with the Labor Party, and the party with him, and it's not clear which is the hump and to whom it's attached. Advertisement This will be an election campaign that features two former prime ministers, each of whom started out with tremendous promise and each of whom was unceremoniously thrown out of office. Both of them have made comebacks in recent years, one successfully, the other not. Netanyahu, without having done almost anything in the past two and a half years, is at an excellent starting point for catapulting into the premiership. The results of the Dialog poll (see page B2), under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University, including predictions of Knesset seats that will be won and opinions of candidate suitability, are almost too good to be true for Netanyahu: He is Mr. Economy, Mr. Security, Mr. Coalition, Mr. Doesn't Buckle Under Pressure, and Mr. I Have Learned My Lessons. In this same poll, Barak finishes last in almost every category, other than in his ability to handle national security, where he places second, after Netanyahu. As for Netanyahu, he is good at everything because people want him; by the same token, Barak is bad at everything because people do not want him. People will understand, Barak says, which party is the responsible one, the one that creates security and doesn't just talk about it. Do you really think our people will vote Kadima, he thinks, with Tzachi Hanegbi and Ruhama Avraham Balila and Eli Aflalo? The results of initial polls, of course, do not necessarily match what the final outcome of the vote will be. In 2006, the polls gave Kadima 40-42 seats until almost the last two weeks; Kadima ended up with 29 seats. At the same time, the polls were good at predicting the fate of Likud and Labor. Those who gave the Pensioners Party seven seats in 2006 are expected to divide their vote in the following way in 2009: Thirty percent will likely vote for Kadima, 20 percent for Labor and 10 percent for the Likud. (The others have not yet decided or are not saying.) Livni is expected to bring her party the same number of seats that Netanyahu brings the Likud: 31. But when it comes to the popular perception of her suitability for office, she lags far behind the Likud leader. This holds whether the question is who the public thinks will deal best with the economy (Netanyahu is well-positioned to bolster himself in this sphere if the economic crisis worsens in the next three months), who will best lead the political process with the Palestinians and the Syrians, who will best handle Israel's security problems, who can best stand up to pressure, and who is best qualified to lead a coalition. The public, although finding Livni less suited to be prime minister when it comes to the critical issues, still wants her. It's because she projects something that is difficult to define. Could she slip along the way? Possibly, but Netanyahu isn't made of Teflon, either. To this day, no one has really gone after him. It would be nice if Netanyahu and Livni were to raise the gauntlet that Barak has thrown down, and agree to participate in three television debates. Such confrontations are very instructive. They show how well a candidate has mastered the material, and indicate depth or shallowness, control, ability to stand up under pressure, humor or dryness. The poll gives the right-wing bloc 61 seats and the center-left bloc 59 seats. But it would be more difficult for Livni to form a homogeneous government, because her bloc includes 11 Arab MKs who, for some reason, in the Israel of 2008, are still not considered fit to be part of the coalition. She will have to bring into the coalition at least one right-wing faction - which will defect the moment fear of an agreement with the Palestinians arises. Between 2003 and 2006, a major rift developed between the Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties because of Sharon's decision to bring Shinui into the government and because of Netanyahu's economic policy. A similar break occurred between the Likud and the right over the withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, and the establishment of Kadima. Netanyahu's attempt to block the formation of a government after the 2006 elections by forging an alliance with Shas' Eli Yishai and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu was rejected out of hand. As it turned out, Yishai joined the Olmert government immediately upon its formation and Lieberman joined a few months later. The two of them consigned Netanyahu to long service in the opposition. Now the right is united in its struggle against Kadima. Does that mean that parties such as Shas and United Torah Judaism will under no circumstances be part of a Kadima-Labor bloc, if Livni forms a government? The Likud believes that such a scenario would be realistic only if Livni commands a large, stable alliance of parties, which is capable of blocking the formation of a government by anyone else. "I do not accept that," Livni says. "The agenda and worldview of Kadima are those of a centrist party. We should not be tagged as part of the left-wing bloc. Put all the conceptions about blocs aside. Netanyahu refused to join the government I wanted to form not because his views are so far from mine, but because he did not want to legitimize me before the elections. It is actually Kadima that has more room for political choice and maneuver than other parties." Livni wants both to avoid the association with the left, and to get its votes. In the coming three months, she will have to tread carefully between left and right. She has a lot to lose. Take the Kadima Knesset list for example, which will be chosen in another few weeks. If it has a rightward slant and is controlled by Shaul Mofaz, whose people are more organized and obedient, Livni will have to explain to the public how she intends to reach a political agreement with the Palestinians when the majority of her faction opposes concessions in Jerusalem, for example. It is the opening session of the Knesset's winter session. Netanyahu is speaking, and toward the end of his statement to the House, he says: "Five years ago, as finance minister, I received an economy on the brink of collapse, and together with my colleagues we saved the Israeli economy." The cameras of the Knesset Channel show MK Reuven Rivlin (Likud) grabbing the hand of his party colleague Silvan Shalom and whispering soothing words to him. Netanyahu continues: "After the election, I will call on Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak to join us and our partners, to join hands, and with the help of a compass and a clear map, lead Israel to a safe haven." The Shas MKs fidget uneasily. For this we are going to the people, for a government that includes Likud, Labor and Kadima (72 seats between them in today's poll), and with us relegated to the margins? Olmert, who announced his resignation a few months ago, delivered the opening speech. His successor as party leader sat in her place and was silent. Under the law, the leader of the opposition proceeded to make the opening speech of his election campaign, while the third candidate for prime minister, Ehud Barak, who is not even a Knesset member, observed everything almost from the sidelines. Barak kept glancing up at the visitors gallery, as though looking for someone in particular. No, a Barak confidant said afterward, he was not looking for anyone; he just wanted to express his disbelief at this hallucinatory spectacle, which he himself is part of. Five years after being pushed out of political life, Dan Meridor has suddenly become a hot commodity. The Likud wants him, and so does Kadima. With personal integrity and political uprightness in such high demand, Meridor brings high dividends. Especially to the Likud. Netanyahu understands that the reason for Livni's popularity is what she stands for: probity, straight talk, political moderation, honesty. The closest thing to an appropriate Zionist response is Meridor. Meridor, a former justice minister and longtime Likud MK before he created the ill-fated Center Party, has held long talks with Netanyahu and Rivlin in the past few weeks. "I am ready to run in the primary," he told them. Netanyahu and Rivlin know that Meridor would face a rough, vengeful front in an open contest. He is liable to end up in the 20th slot on the Knesset list, which would make the Likud look like a petty, right-wing party. Netanyahu promised Meridor he would make every effort to guarantee him a high slot on the list. To do that, he will have to soften a few pockets of resistance in the party hierarchy. In the past few days he has held personal talks with senior party figures to that end. If Netanyahu tells Meridor that he has no choice but to run in the primary, Meridor will have to make a hard decision. He is returning to the arena not to be a backbencher, but to be a member of the cabinet and the security cabinet, and to peruse the top-secret intelligence material he is so fond of. For that, he will have to be high up on the list, not close to the bottom. It is important to have people like Meridor in politics and in the cabinet at critical moments. But there is also a basic lack of fairness here, and a moral problem. He was in the Likud, left, established the rival Center Party, flirted with Kadima and then returned to the Likud. Should he get a guaranteed slot, while Rivlin and Shalom and Gideon Sa'ar and Moshe Kahlon and Yuval Steinitz and others - who carried the party on their backs during the harsh days in opposition, who came out in Netanyahu's defense when he stumbled and fell, who never defected and never dreamed of defecting - are forced to spend their days and nights and money to court voters in remote party branches? For many Likud activists, Meridor is anathema. "He was with us when the Likud won, and left when the Likud lost, in 1999 and in 2006," these activists say. "Why give him a reward?" Bookmark to del.icio.us   Never walk alone It's safe to assume that Obama won't abandon Israel. Apprehensive in Israel Rightist MK Aryeh Eldad warns 'Israel should be wary of Barack Obama'

Read & React Obama kick-starts transition, picks Israeli Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff Responses: 168 World Bank: Palestinian economy could flourish if Israel eased restrictions Responses: 70 Gaza gunman killed in IAF strike, after day of renewed hostilities Responses: 50 PM heads to D.C. to wrangle last favors from Bush Responses: 41 Iran's Ahmadinejad offers congratulations to Obama Responses: 31 More Headlines 22:39 Iran's Ahmadinejad offers congratulations to Obama 23:28 Rahm Emanuel accepts offer to serve as Obama's chief of staff 22:34 IDF troops film themselves humiliating bound Palestinian 22:36 ADL blasts Greek paper for branding Obama win `end of Jewish domination` 23:17 Gaza militants fire four Qassam rockets into western Negev 22:12 Livni: Israel-PA peace talks must proceed unchanged 20:48 Barak: Kadima 'a party of air', Netanyahu like 'Santa Claus' 23:05 IDF concludes large drill simulating double-front war in North 19:27 Palestinians boycott 'useless' Jerusalem mayoral election 15:29 Vatican: Jewish charges against Nazi-era pope are 'outrageous' 12:43 JEWISH WORLD / What's in a hyphen? How an innocuous mark justifies antisemitism 18:25 Fatah: Hamas arrests dozens of our activists in Gaza 17:10 Actor Hanan Goldblatt sentenced to 7 years in jail for rape 16:13 Arabs rally against construction of Jerusalem museum on Muslim cemetery Previous Editions Select Day 05 nov 04 nov 03 nov 02 nov 31 oct 30 oct 29 oct 28 oct 27 oct 26 oct 24 oct 23 oct

Special Offers Advertisement Living in Israel Studying in English Click & Meet our students from all around the world Dan Boutique Jerusalem New Dan Hotel in Jerusalem Young, Fun & Distinctively Dan Book Now Online! Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. Car rental in Israel Shlomo Sixt Receive $15.00 from our low rates. Dial 013 for your long-distance calls and get all your money back US CITIZENS Vote for real change. Request your ballot today! Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Jewish Singles Personal Ads Find the love of your life on JDate.com Israel's Premier Real Estate Website www. israel-property.com Hebrew Summer courses From $39.95 Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel | Search engine marketing

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved