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Last update - 08:46 30/10/2008
Haaretz poll: Likud, Kadima tied at 31; Labor down to 10 seats
By Yossi Verter
Tags: Israel News, Likud 

If elections were held today, the right-wing camp would garner 61 Knesset seats while 58 would go to the center-left. The numbers are close, but the political difference between the blocs is much greater, and favors the right as of now, according to a Haaretz-Dialog poll conducted last night.

The poll, held under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's statistics department, shows that 30 percent of Labor supporters in 2006 - a number representing about six Knesset seats - said they would vote for Kadima. Meanwhile, 20 percent of Kadima voters in 2006 - again, worth about six seats - said they would return "home" to Likud.

Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu would find himself in the ideal position of being able to easily form a number of alternative governments: with Kadima, Labor and the ultra-Orthodox; with Kadima, the ultra-Orthodox and the right; or with Labor, the ultra-Orthodox and the right.
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Although Tzipi Livni would win an equal number of seats, she would be in a far inferior position: The center-left camp includes 11 Arab MKs and two from the Green Party, which might not pass the minimum threshold to get into the Knesset.

The poll shows that currently, at the outset of the campaign, Kadima and Likud, and the two large parliamentary blocs, are neck-and-neck. Unexpected events could move a few seats from bloc to bloc, and then the whole picture could change. If the center-left bloc garners the 61 votes, it could thwart Netanyahu's efforts to form a government, but the government that Livni would form would have to bring in a right-wing element or two, which will make it difficult for her to make diplomatic moves.

Likud gains from right

The poll predicts that Likud would receive additional seats from right-wing parties Shas and the National Union, which had a weak showing in the survey. Quite a few Likud voters in the upcoming elections are those who did not vote in 2006, a number that translates into about seven seats.

While Netanyahu and the right are beginning their battle from a very comfortable position, Labor and its leader, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, are in the midst of a catastrophe. According to the poll, Labor and Shas are tied for the position of fourth-largest party in the next Knesset, after Kadima (31), Likud (31) and Israel Beiteinu (11).

Barak and Labor need no less than a political miracle to recover and extricate themselves from this predicament. However, Barak performs excellently in political campaigns, as he showed twice, in the 1999 campaign against Netanyahu and the 2007 primaries against Ami Ayalon, both times starting from an inferior position.

Those surveyed gave Barak poor marks on various issues involving suitability for the premiership, except on the question of his ability to handle Israel's security problems. In answer to the question "Who in your opinion is more able to deal with Israel's security problems, particularly the Iranian nuclear threat?" Netanyahu got 33 percent of the vote, Barak 26 percent and Livni only 14 percent.

The full survey will be published in Week's End tomorrow.

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      1.   Wow.....more than 50 % of Israelis would vote for parties..... 03:02  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/10/08
      2.   The beginning of the end for the Left 03:17  |  Frank 30/10/08
      3.   #1, there is no peace because Hamas has charter to KILL Jews 04:07  |  David 30/10/08
      4.   Here`s a simple question 04:14  |  idf_sergeant 30/10/08
      5.   "Baruch Hashem..." 04:47  |  sandra chitayat 30/10/08
      6.   #1 Swiss (Dino) This political dichotomy exists in most nations.. 05:03  |  Smadar 30/10/08
      7.   #1 Swiss Dino 05:15  |  George Kaplan 30/10/08
      8.   You ain`t seen nothi`n Yet-Wait three more days 05:34  |  Genuine Tosefta 30/10/08
      9.   The beginning of the end of Israel 05:42  |  spyguy 30/10/08
      10.   One issue that is overlooked but is the deal breaker 06:04  |  Meir Weinstein 30/10/08
      11.   1# Swiss (Dino) "..and then you wonder why you can`t find peace" 06:12  |  Akram Zekaria 30/10/08
      12.   Another way to look at it... 06:16  |  Meir Weinstein 30/10/08
      13.   chances 06:18  |  colin 30/10/08
      14.   FORM 06:20  |  colin 30/10/08
      15.   #1, maybe if the palestinian would once embraced peace 07:32  |  yehudah 30/10/08
      16.   @15, yehuda from haifa 08:53  |  vladimir 30/10/08
      17.   oy va voy lanu 09:22  |  Me 30/10/08
      18.   Israel`s Future is Decided in the Salons of the West 09:33  |  Dave 30/10/08
      19.   WORDS never won Wars but ACTION does.... 09:35  |  Josephus 30/10/08
      20.   # 6 Smadar 10:00  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/10/08
      21.   # 3 David / # 7 George Kaplan/ # 11 Akram Zekaria / # 15 yehudah 10:14  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/10/08
      22.   Bibi, like him or not, he is a man in charge, unlike the last few 10:37  |  Harvey 30/10/08
      23.   for #12 Another "more realistic" way to look at it 11:19  |  Ari ben Yisrael 30/10/08
      24.   Kadima INCREASES to 31?! HaaaaaHaHa HooooHoHo HeeHee... 13:08  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 30/10/08
      25.   The Polls and their accuracy 13:14  |  S Judah 30/10/08
      26.   Netanyahu would be disastrous for Israel 13:45  |  Jack 30/10/08
      27.   POLL SAYS LIVNI WOULD LOSE. EVEN HAARETZ COMMISSIONED POLL 13:51  |  Jonathan Davis 30/10/08
      28.   # 3 David/ # 7 George Kaplan/# 11 Akram Zekaria/ # 15 yehudah 14:13  |  Swiss (Dino) 30/10/08
      29.   #11 Akram Zekaria is wrong on one point 14:25  |  spyguy 30/10/08
      30.   Tzipi Livni, her articulate influencing speeches her `backbone` 14:37  |  Dagma 30/10/08
      31.   Remembering ZEEVI War Hero and Tourism Minister. 15:30  |  Dolly 30/10/08
      32.   Any ideas? 15:55  |  Danite 30/10/08
      33.   Smadar how is your Arabic? 15:56  |  Danite 30/10/08
      34.   Kadima 31???? How short our people`s memory of Kadima?... 16:08  |  bat yam 30/10/08
      35.   The only "poll" that really counts is where people VOTE! 16:17  |  Yaakov K. 30/10/08
      36.   At this point.. 16:38  |  Danite 30/10/08
      37.   Jack 26 "why should the working class vote for Netanyahu" 17:03  |  Realist 30/10/08
      38.   people want a change of scenery not more kadima 17:17  |  zionist forever 30/10/08
      39.   Swiss Dino 19:04  |  JR 30/10/08
      40.   Israel is starting to remind me of Serbia considering Kosovo 19:45  |  Mark B. 30/10/08
      41.   George Kaplan 20:33  |  christa 30/10/08
      42.   JR 20:37  |  christa 30/10/08
      43.   Translation: Likud is on track to winning BIG! 23:03  |  Chaim 30/10/08
      44.   # 39 JR, please don`t exaggerate 01:28  |  Swiss (Dino) 31/10/08
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