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Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni speaking at her first policy address since being nominated to form Israel's next government. (Reuters)
Last update - 09:26 26/10/2008
ANALYSIS / Does failure to form a gov't make Tzipi Livni a loser?
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Shas, Tzipi Livni 

When Tzipi Livni tells President Shimon Peres on Sunday that she is unable to form a government, she will suffer the worst of all political fates: She will look like a loser. She tried to form a government, but failed.

Her winning image, already cracked by her narrow victory over Shaul Mofaz in Kadima's leadership primary, will be dealt another blow.

Claiming that she always preferred elections, but "examined the option" of forming a government for the sake of stability, will not help. It will recall Ehud Barak's excuses after the Camp David Summit - that he was only trying to see whether he had a partner for a peace deal, and the answer was no. Because Livni's actions show that she wanted to be prime minister now, without elections. Her confidants convinced her that it was better to run as a sitting premier.
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Peres will be able to sympathize with Livni: He is the last person to have tried and failed to form a government, when his "stinking maneuver" of 1990 went awry.

In both cases, after a sitting premier was ousted, his chief rival tried to form a government without calling elections. And in both cases, the ultra-Orthodox parties held the key to the success of their efforts - Shas for Livni, Agudat Yisrael for Peres - but ultimately decided against joining a leftist government.

Livni's associates accuse Shas of wasting time on empty talks when it never actually intended to join the government. Shas insists that it negotiated in good faith, but Livni did not offer it enough money.

Livni did well to set herself a deadline of Sunday, the eve of the new Knesset session, rather than using the full time allotted her.

She thereby prevented additional humiliation and showed herself as being unwilling to pay any price for power, unwilling to lose her credibility as "a different kind of politician." And that is how she will portray herself in the upcoming campaign: as someone unwilling to give in to Shas' extortion, as someone whose first consideration is the good of the country.

But while Livni will start her campaign with public support, she will be doing so from a position of political weakness - her failure to form a government. And she will have none of the benefits of incumbency. Ehud Olmert will remain prime minister for another several months, and enjoy every moment. He will determine the budget; he will conduct the diplomatic negotiations.

And Livni, meanwhile, will be fighting for her political life against Barak. They will be vying for the same voters and the same donors, enabling Likud to simply stand aside and let them destroy each other.

Yet a Labor-Kadima merger is not currently in the cards: If the failed coalition talks proved anything, it is just how deep the distrust between Livni and Barak runs.

Related articles:
  • Livni to Haaretz: I will go to elections
  • Netanyahu to Shas: Don't join Livni, she'll give up Jerusalem
  • ANALYSIS / When are elections and what can be expected in the Knesset until then?
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      1.   Livni is a defeatist and an extreme leftist and inept loser 03:12  |  Teddy Baer 26/10/08
      2.   Agreement Mechanism 03:41  |  Matthew Houston 26/10/08
      3.   disaster as FM 03:50  |  Avi 26/10/08
      4.   Only if that is what Israelis want 04:13  |  Mark Lincoln 26/10/08
      5.   no coalition 04:49  |  avi 26/10/08
      6.   Livni stands out as a decent politician 06:48  |  Eva 26/10/08
      7.   the leader of afailed party with no tangible policy 06:49  |  victor hardman 26/10/08
      8.   All the king;s horses 07:10  |  Jim 26/10/08
      9.   LIVNI-PALIN Ticket, US or Israel 07:12  |  Arik Silverman 26/10/08
      10.   #$ Genius in Houston 07:38  |  Jonathan 26/10/08
      11.   #5 To Avi from one more of a million 07:58  |  Jim 26/10/08
      12.   Livni bubble popped 08:14  |  Ilan 26/10/08
      13.   Integrity 08:33  |  Rina 26/10/08
      14.   Does any failure make anyone a loser? 08:44  |  James Mason 26/10/08
      15.   who is livni anyway? 09:01  |  howard 26/10/08
      16.   Livni: you should read what Mark Lincoln #4 is saying 09:05  |  S 26/10/08
      17.   Livni`s Stance was `No Way Out`...... 09:08  |  Dolly 26/10/08
      18.   bye bye birdie 09:26  |  g.e. 26/10/08
      19.   Does failure to form a gov`t make Tzipi Livni a loser? 09:48  |  Harolds Silver 26/10/08
      20.   What is the definition of a winner? 10:37  |  DW 26/10/08
      21.   livni choice 10:48  |  ari 26/10/08
      22.   Yes, "L" is for LOSER 11:45  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 26/10/08
      23.   Does failure to form a gov`t make Tzipi Livni a loser? 11:55  |  Lek 26/10/08
      24.   Loser City! 13:02  |  Kenny 26/10/08
      25.   OLMERT AGAIN? Thiught Israelis pushed him out..... 13:03  |  Dagma 26/10/08
      26.   Livni is more a Loser than a Winner..... 13:48  |  Dolly 26/10/08
      27.   Better to lose election now and win history later 14:00  |  dyinglikeflies 26/10/08
      28.   She´s not the only loser, there´s the rest of Kadima and rest. 14:55  |  JP 26/10/08
      29.   No it doesn`t --it makes her a member of opposition 16:46  |  Sal 26/10/08
      30.   By calling new elections Livni makes her star brighter 17:07  |  Shepherd 26/10/08
      31.   I hope the election ends the Kadima experiment once & for all 17:14  |  Kipperraes 26/10/08
      32.   Livni 17:16  |  Steven 26/10/08
      33.   I am more likely to vote for Tzipi now 18:06  |  Gili 26/10/08
      34.   Livni 19:03  |  Steven 26/10/08
      35.   Livni - a loser? 20:28  |  Otto Rand 26/10/08
      36.   Not a loser! 21:03  |  Brenda Cohen 26/10/08
      37.   Think twice before deciding.. 02:12  |  Freddy 27/10/08
      38.   livni 19:25  |  yitz 27/10/08
      39.   livni 19:27  |  yitz 27/10/08
      40.   The Future 20:29  |  shimritp 27/10/08
      41.   the LA Teddy Bear wishes to bring about Livni`s defeat 19:11  |  Goldie Lox 29/10/08
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