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Last update - 08:39 25/10/2008
ANALYSIS / Shas betting on its renewed alliance with Benjamin Netanyahu
By Mazal Mualem, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Shas, Israel News 

Kadima chairwoman Tzipi Livni and her advisors who are quarterbacking the coalitional negotiations went to sleep on Thursday night comforted by the sense that Shas is on its way to a Livni-led government. They awoke on Friday to the surprising news that the Shas council of Torah sages voted via telephone against joining the coalition.

Beyond the positive atmosphere which hovered over the talks, which were held in the offices of attorney Yoram Raved, Livni and her associates could point to increasing signs that Shas was getting closer to joining. Raved and attorney Yisrael Maimon, Livni's point men in the negotiations, were led to believe by Shas' representative, attorney David Glass, that her "final" offer to Shas had advanced the negotiations. The Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party already had in its hand NIS 600 million in child allowances for the 2009 budget as well as a willingness from Livni to find a creatively formulated compromise on the issue of Jerusalem, concessions that Glass did not rebuff out of hand.

So what happened during the course of the night? Perhaps Shas, under Yishai's stewardship, did not ever intend to enter the Livni government and preferred to maintain the appearance of partaking in serious negotiations all the while knowing the ultimate outcome. In recent months, Yishai has consistently offered his prediction that early elections would be held by the end of 2008 or the start of 2009. Ten days before the Kadima primaries, Yishai posited that neither Livni or Mofaz would manage to form a government and the elections would be held ahead of schedule.
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When examining Shas' behavior since the Yisrael Beiteinu faction resigned from the Olmert government in January 2008, there emerges a clear strategy on the part of Shas, one which leads to its latest decision to reject Kadima's offer. Shas, which remains the lone rightist remnant of the Olmert government, needed to readjust itself in accordance with the changing circumstances and in preparation for the upcoming elections. From that point, Shas has carried two central banners: maintaining the unity of Jerusalem and child allowances.

Against the backdrop of the Annapolis peace conference, Shas hardened its diplomatic stance, exercising its veto over negotiations on the future of Jerusalem. Soon after the conference, the seeds were sown for the resumption of the historic alliance between Benjamin Netanyahu and Shas.

Both sides held talks coordinating their stances and Netanyahu frequently made pilgrimmages to the home of Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. Netanyahu and the Likud constantly challenged Shas over the issue of Jerusalem, though they refrained from directly and publicly attacking the party leaders.

The first, real test of the budding relationship between Bibi and Shas came this past June, when the latter indicated its readiness to vote in favor of Silvan Shalom's motion for the dissolution of the Knesset. The vote never took place thanks to the "Labor-Kadima agreement" which prevented the Labor Party's support for the vote and paved the way for Olmert's removal from office and the Kadima party primary. Shas officials were hellbent on going all the way.

The ever-growing trust between the two sides prompted Netanyahu to make more frequent appearances in the Haredi press over the course of the last month. The Likud chief even secured the services of former Shas spokesperson Itzik Sudri.

In a gushing interview which was published in the official Shas bulletin Yom L'yom on the eve of the holiday of Sukkot, Netanyahu declared that Shas would be the first party he intends to invite to join his government following the elections. The former premier also hailed the historic alliance and shared values between the two factions.

Netanyahu has zeroed in on Shas because he realizes it is the key to early elections. Throughout the party's negotiations with Livni, Netanyahu did not let up, keeping his finger on the pulse of internal developments within the party. Did Netanyahu promise or hint to Ovadia Yosef that he would restore child allowances that he himself slashed as finance minister?

There is no proof of this, though it is clear that Netanyahu has managed to cast a wide safety net for Shas. He will bring it into a government that he plans to form following his victory in elections. The lone risk Shas is taking is that Livni will be the one to form a government without Shas, thus relegating the ultra-Orthodox faction to the opposition. Such a scenario is unacceptable to the rabbi who prefers seeing Shas in the government.

The growing ties with Netanyahu and Yishai's realization that it would behoove Shas to position itself as an ideologically social party in the run-up to early elections eventually led to Friday morning's decision to cut ties with Kadima. Shas officials are convinced Livni will not be able to form a government without them. In this scenario, Shas' presence in the Olmert government and its future place in a Netanyahu-led coalition ensures the party maintains its hold on the seats of power.

Eli Yishai - who in recent months has seen his leadership tested from within by the re-emergence of Aryeh Deri and the covert rivalry with the party's young minister, Ariel Atias, who espouses a softer approach - has strengthened his position in light of Friday's developments
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  1.   Interesting analysis. 22:16  |  sandra chitayat 24/10/08
  2.   An Election for the Soul of Israel 22:37  |  Mark Lincoln 24/10/08
  3.   Money-makes-the-world-go-round... 23:17  |  Esther 24/10/08
  4.   Shas is unpatriotic 23:28  |  Robert 24/10/08
  5.   Mark Lincoln 01:35  |  TonyL 25/10/08
  6.   Shas and Benny - that`s the way to go 01:41  |  Dwido 25/10/08
  7.   Highest Bidder 02:45  |  Shas 25/10/08
  8.   The Arabs secret weapon? The Israeli right wing 10:30  |  Natallie Durson 25/10/08
  9.   Untrustworthy Shas 10:52  |  ATLAS 25/10/08
  10.   So who`s the bigger fool, Yishai or Bibi? 11:13  |  David Teich 25/10/08
  11.   Terror in the Name of God 11:35  |  B.Saleem 25/10/08
  12.   Shas & Benny 11:49  |  j.b. 25/10/08
  13.   Shas out !!! 12:39  |  J. B. 25/10/08
  14.   Sieze the moment. 12:42  |  Charles Smyth 25/10/08
  15.   It will be a pity if Netanyahu supports Shas-he will lose votes 13:48  |  Jo 25/10/08
  16.   Eat your heart out!! 14:30  |  Afflalo, Ya`ish 25/10/08
  17.   To B Saleem # 11 - TERROR in the name of 15:50  |  Dagma 25/10/08
  18.   The people will decide whether to give away the capital 16:03  |  Realist 25/10/08
  19.   No more Dividing Jerusalem, Surrendering, Appeasing 16:35  |  Natasha 25/10/08
  20.   TonyL - define Jewish, then Jewish state 16:46  |  Mark Lincoln 25/10/08
  21.   "The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!" 16:48  |  Mark Lincoln 25/10/08
  22.   Did it work? 16:50  |  Mark Lincoln 25/10/08
  23.   Likud and Shas makes perfect sense. 16:52  |  Shepherd 25/10/08
  24.   Dagama, Gaza is occupied and under seige... 16:53  |  BBSNews 25/10/08
  25.   Gee Natasha... 16:56  |  BBSNews 25/10/08
  26.   extract from Haaretz News Paper 16:58  |  Jacques Sion 25/10/08
  27.   Post#2...President Peres to the rescue... 17:41  |  Afflalo, Ya`ish 25/10/08
  28.   democracy in action 19:28  |  JoJo 25/10/08
  29.   Shas, emerges from stagnent swamp. 19:57  |  Stephen. 25/10/08
  30.   24: BBS hasn`t learned 21:40  |  David Teich 25/10/08
  31.   Mark Lincoln 21 Get a clue! 22:29  |  Realist 25/10/08
  32.   31: It`s somewhere in the middle, lincoln and "realist" 16:08  |  David Teich 26/10/08
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