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Election limbo By Aluf Benn Tags: Israel News, United States  The U.S. presidential election is taking place against the backdrop of an ongoing decline in the importance of Israel and the Israeli-Arab conflict for American foreign policy. The impression given by the campaign has, however, been the opposite: Barack Obama and John McCain are vying to outdo each other with declarations of support for Israel, and for the first time in history, candidates from both parties paid a visit here during the election year. But this was a reflection of their hard-fought battle for the support of Jewish voters in America, not an indication of how involved the winner will be in mediating between Israel and the Arabs. The paramount task of the newly elected president will be to rescue the American and global economy. Next on the agenda will be the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the Iranian nuclear program. Israel's economic significance is close to nil, and its influence on events in Baghdad, Kabul or Islamabad is negligible. The only area in which Israel can affect American policy will be on the Iranian front: An Israeli bombardment of the nuclear facilities in Natanz, Arak or Isfahan could drag the United States into a war, and trigger a spike in oil prices. This is why America will ask Israel not to spring any surprises on it, in exchange for taking Israeli interests into consideration in any future dialogue with the Iranians. The chance of an Israeli bombardment of Iran seems remote - that is, if the declarations and whisperings of Israeli diplomats and security personnel truly reflect reality and are not part of some sort of strategic deception. The election campaign is attracting additional interest, primarily because of the change heralded by Barack Obama. John McCain is similar in age and experience to Yitzhak Rabin, or Ariel Sharon, when they each respectively became prime minister. He is receptive to the idea of using force, and promises to be assertive in dealing with Iran. It's hard to imagine him challenging Israel's traditional policy, which American liberals perceive as overly belligerent. Advertisement The color of Obama's skin, his middle name (Hussein), his childhood in Muslim Indonesia and his connections with veterans of Bill Clinton's "peace team" have caused the Jewish establishment in America to instinctively recoil from him. With this kind of background, Obama is liable to identify with the oppressed in the Third World. He could turn into a new Jimmy Carter, pursuing a messianic belief in human rights and trying to appease America's enemies. His promise to talk with the Iranians has only intensified this feeling, which has not been lessened by his consistent statements in support of Israel. Obama wants to improve the image of the United States in the world and to set himself apart from the detested George W. Bush, who is perceived in the Arab states and in Europe as blindly supporting Israel. If the Democratic challenger is elected, he will come under serious pressure to distance himself from Israel. How can he manage this without angering Congress and the Jews, or imperiling his chances for a second term? He could pester Israel with demands that it dismantle illegal outposts and freeze settlement construction; he could grumble about the occupation and the checkpoints in the territories, and oppose Israeli arms sales in Asia and Africa. Obama has become the peace messiah of the Israeli left, just as the Jewish right in the U.S. is hoping that McCain will attack Iran and foil a second Holocaust. Both the left and the right sides are in for a disappointment, however: Obama's charisma alone is not sufficient to resolve the Israeli-Arab conflict, and McCain will be extremely wary of opening a third front in the Middle East, after Afghanistan and Iraq. Ever since efforts failed to achieve final-status agreements between Israel and Syria, and Israel and the Palestinians, in 2000, U.S. policy has been to "contain" the Israeli-Arab conflict. The second intifada, the withdrawal from Gaza and the Second Lebanon War barely affected regional developments in the Middle East, or the stability of the regimes in the Arab states, and all recurrent efforts to revive the peace process have led nowhere. In the present circumstances, it's hard to see how either Obama or McCain might achieve an accord between Israel and the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is weak and its future is uncertain, while Hamas in Gaza refuses to recognize Israel and to enter into negotiations. The next administration will not force Israel to withdraw from the West Bank, and thereby expose Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to rocket fire and suicide bombings. It will likely preserve the verbal commitment to "the two-state solution," while endeavoring to mitigate the damage of the occupation and the settlements, and to prevent a new outbreak of violence and terror, until conditions are ripe for genuine progress. Syrian channel The Syrian channel appears more promising, and also offers a strategic benefit for America. There's no disputing Bashar Assad's ability to sign a peace agreement with Israel in return for a withdrawal from the Golan Heights, and to carry it out. Assad is also clearly interested in improving his relations with the United States, and is essentially offering it a new base in the region, as a substitute for Iraq and perhaps also Egypt. The question is to what extent Assad will be prepared to thaw Syrian hostility toward Israel and to make public gestures that will soften the Israeli public's opposition to giving up the Golan Heights. The new government in Israel, sure to be hamstrung by coalition problems, will have a hard time advancing an agreement with Syria without a Syrian handshake and strong American involvement. The new president in the White House will only seriously pursue the Syrian channel if he feels that an accord is within reach. Given the critical conditions under which McCain or Obama will assume the presidency, Israel will mainly be asked not to entangle America on other, secondary fronts. A third intifada, a new confrontation with Hezbollah or an incursion into Gaza would steal some of the president's precious attention and distract him from his primary tasks. The problem is that, without a strong leader in Washington, and with a weak government in Jerusalem that could be susceptible to military adventurism, the odds of an Israeli-Arab clash will only increase. The economic crisis will surely prompt calls for a reevaluation of U.S. foreign aid, of which Israel is a primary recipient; Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, has already hinted as much. If the crisis worsens, the question will arise as to whether Israel ought to voluntarily forgo all or some of this aid. The sum may be relatively small - about $3 billion a year is granted to Israel in military aid, as compared to the trillions lost on Wall Street - but it is of great symbolic importance. To critics of Israel, the aid it receives is a waste of resources and amounts to financing for the occupation. True, the Bush administration approved a 10-year aid package to Israel, but this will become difficult to defend if millions of Americans lose their jobs, and support to other countries is cut back. Experience shows that Israelis are terrible judges of American presidential candidates. In the 1992 campaign, Yitzhak Rabin preferred Bush pere, his contemporary, who had a storied military background, to the young, inexperienced draft-dodger, Bill Clinton. There was concern regarding the "leftist" policy that Clinton would impose upon Israel. After the election, however, Rabin and Clinton became great friends. Eight years later, Israel feared Bush fils, remembering the close ties his father and his associates had had with the Saudis. This concern led Ariel Sharon, following the September 11 attacks, to warn that "Israel is not Czechoslovakia," and that it would not pay the price of appeasement with the Arabs. But this worry proved unfounded, as George W. Bush turned out to be an ardent supporter of Sharon and of Israel. Presidents behave differently than candidates. Obama or McCain will work to advance America's interests, and the Israeli leadership's job will be not to stand in their way, and to take advantage of opportunities that will benefit Israel. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Damaging remarks Right-wing MK Lieberman says Egyptian president Mubarak can "go to hell." Joe on Israel Overnight media sensation says Obama presidency would spell "death of Israel."   1.   Turn down American financial aid. 19:43  |  zooog 24/10/08   2.   Declare! 05:09  |  rigma 25/10/08   3.   How Valuable Is Obama? 14:53  |  Ralph 25/10/08   4.   The Nuclear Clock IsTicking 06:18  |  r.e. benn 30/10/08

Read & React Lieberman: Mubarak can 'go to hell'; Peres, Olmert apologize Responses: 138 Meron Benvenisti: Peres Center training Palestinians to accept Jewish superiority Responses: 48 Barak cuts services to outposts in response to settler violence Responses: 63 Ari Shavit: The next government will not bring Israel to peace Responses: 38 More Headlines 20:07 Survey: U.S. absentee voters in Israel back McCain over Obama by 3-1 18:04 France strongly denies Sarkozy criticized Obama stance on Iran 20:03 UN Chief urges Hezbollah to turn from milita to political party 18:27 Mayoral candidate vows to build 10,000 homes in East Jerusalem 18:43 Israel sets Feburary 10 as date for general elections 18:23 Jewish delegate to Vatican: Pope ignored request to freeze Pius XII sainthood 18:41 Hamas frees 17 Fatah prisoners as 'goodwill' ahead of unity talks 15:21 Have Israeli archaeologists found world's oldest Hebrew inscription? 18:45 VIDEO / Syrian riot police encircle U.S. embassy as thousands protest raid 13:32 MKs mull umbrella party to represent all Israeli Arabs 20:11 VIDEO / Women mayoral candidates from Arab, Haredi sectors challenge a male domain 15:24 Report: Tycoon Donald Trump's daughter converting to Judaism 16:46 Higher education crisis ends as Olmert orders NIS 515 million budget hike Previous Editions Select Day 29 oct 28 oct 27 oct 26 oct 24 oct 23 oct 22 oct 21 oct 20 oct 19 oct 17 oct 16 oct

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