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Last update - 01:55 22/10/2008 ANALYSIS / Iran's threats are not based on any proven capability By Amos Harel Tags: Israel news, nuclear, Iran Even though the senior Iranian official was speaking to a closed forum, it would not be at all surprising if his words were actually intended for an Israeli audience. Alongside the public diplomatic struggle - and Israel's secret military preparations - against the Iranian nuclear projects, there is also a war of threats and oratory going on between the two nations. The announcements of Ayatollah Seyed G. Safavi look to be another stage in the Iranian attempt to create a balance of fear and deterrence with Israel. The past two years, whether because of Iranian progress toward acquiring nuclear capability, or because of the absence of Ariel Sharon from the political helm, have seen a gradual escalation in Israeli pronouncements about Iran. The end of the primary season in Kadima may have reined in slightly the enthusiasm for public declarations, but even responsible Israeli statesmen such as Defense Minister Ehud Barak, speaking most recently on the matter last Sunday, take care to emphasize that the military option, as a last resort, is still on the table. Advertisement Last week MK Isaac Ben-Israel (Kadima), a former major general and someone very close to prime minister-designate Tzipi Livni, said Israel will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, but that there was still time to prevent that eventuality. "It's not like we're going to bomb them in another three months," said Ben-Israel. When Iranian experts dissect the Israeli declarations, the question is what do they emphasize, the threat ("We will not permit"), or the reservation ("Not now"). The reasonable assumption is that Safawi, similar to the Israeli and international media, does not really know what Israel is planning in the short term. But Teheran is interested in warning Jerusalem that as far as it is concerned, all options are open. This was not the first such report: Two days ago the press in Teheran reported on a huge exercise of Iran's air force, including claims of a practice air attack on Israel. About 100 warplanes, it was claimed, flew 1,200 kilometers and demonstrated their capabilities - something that can be seen as a counter to the reports in June that the Israel Air Force had conducted a similar exercise, which included the simulated bombing of Iran. The problem with Safawi's statements on a preemptive attack on Israel, and even more so with the reports of the Iranian air force exercise, is that they are not based on any proven capability. A cautious estimate would be that the damage Iran could cause to Israel today is very limited. The Iranians would have to rely on their local representatives in the region, Hezbollah and Hamas, or to wait until they obtain nuclear weapons - two or three years down the road, even according to the most pessimistic estimates in the West. Most Iranian warplanes are remnants from the days of the Shah, obsolete American planes. Prof. Anthony Cordesman, a senior U.S. strategic analyst, said in a lecture here last July that only a few of the 300 warplanes the Iranians have are capable of flying at all, and that they lack advanced aeronautical systems. It is highly unlikely that a significant number of such planes could penetrate Israeli defenses. The second possibility for an Iranian attack is with long-range ground to ground missiles. But Cordesman, like other military experts, claims the Iranian missile program is less advanced than it may appear to be. He estimates the Iranians have a few dozen - and no more than a hundred - missiles with a range capable of reaching Israel. The launch capabilities of Iran's missiles have been tested only a few times and it is very hard to estimate their accuracy. For now, without the ability to mount nuclear warheads on these missiles, an attack would consist of only conventional weapons. In other words, the damage they could cause would be similar to the destruction left by the Iraqi Scud missiles during the 1991 Gulf War. It's hard to imagine what good such an attack would do for Iran in the near future. After all, this would be the best way to guarantee an Israeli counter-attack, as well as firm international intervention to halt the Iranian nuclear program, a program that constitutes such an important goal of the Iranian government. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Hitting Hezbollah Iraqi site reports Nasrallah was poisoned last week and Iranian doctors saved him. Terror as support Al-Qaida-linked Web site supports McCain for president by means of welcoming terror.   1.   No Capability ??? HEZBOLLAH ! Hellooooo ! 02:23  |  Chris 22/10/08   2.   LOL, so is IRAN a threat or not ? lol, Israel is confused. 02:26  |  whatever 22/10/08   3.   The zionist doubling cube has been challenged 02:42  |  Josh 22/10/08   4.   An Israeli Govt. of Fools and Appeasers Plus Obama 02:43  |  Tod Zuvckerman 22/10/08   5.   IRAN THE THREAT 03:01  |  CHARLIE ROME 22/10/08   6.   Too true 03:25  |  Mark Lincoln 22/10/08   7.   Of course 03:28  |  Mark Lincoln 22/10/08   8.   Hey Chris, Halloooooooooooooooo 03:35  |  Aussie Eli 22/10/08   9.   No One Fears a Paper Tiger 03:43  |  Joe 22/10/08   10.   #6, MarkL, "their ususal indirect means" 03:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/10/08   11.   their threats come from the heart 04:08  |  Avi 22/10/08   12.   according to the most pessimistic estimates in the West 04:13  |  Avi 22/10/08   13.   Mutual empty threats 04:50  |  Daniel 22/10/08   14.   Danial - tit for tat 05:42  |  Fish 22/10/08   15.   #3 Repeating the word "Zionist" doesn`t make your nonsense right 05:48  |  McQueen 22/10/08   16.   Iranian "threat" a red herring: IT`S THE OCCUPATION, EINSTEIN! 05:52  |  Ivar 22/10/08   17.   Iran 06:21  |  American 22/10/08   18.   Avi, please provide a link to the new Iran NIE report... 07:23  |  BBSNews 22/10/08   19.   Iran makes threats? Get over it! 08:03  |  Natallie Durson 22/10/08   20.   Oil prices below US 70 a barrel--it`s OPEC, never AIPEC 08:11  |  Israeli citizen 22/10/08   21.   So all that guff about an Iranian first attack is just guff? 08:32  |  Clickfool 22/10/08   22.   Who left these petards all over the place? 09:22  |  Kmansfield 22/10/08   23.   Le`ts wait till oil reaches US 50 the barrel 09:37  |  Israeli citizen 22/10/08   24.   Will the Nobel here still talk about AIPAC ,oil 50 US the barrel? 09:39  |  Israeli citizen 22/10/08   25.   If the Iranians attacked they would risk American retaliation 11:08  |  Bartley Kulp 22/10/08   26.   #19, Durson 12:02  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/10/08   27.   Iran is terrified....of $20 a barrel oil. Its only "oil talk" 12:08  |  Alan SA 22/10/08   28.   Cipora, of course 12:20  |  Mark Lincoln 22/10/08   29.   For Alan SA # 27 12:28  |  Clickfool 22/10/08   30.   So if they can`t mount a successful fist strike, 13:13  |  Alex 22/10/08   31.   Clickfool and his "0 probability" 13:32  |  Israeli citizen 22/10/08   32.   Josh 13:46  |  rich 22/10/08   33.   #1 No Capability 14:20  |  Bill Foonman 22/10/08   34.   Neither are Israel`s 14:22  |  American in NY 22/10/08   35.   Bartley Kulp # 25 14:24  |  American in NY 22/10/08   36.   Aussie Eli 17:11  |  Persian Kitty 22/10/08   37.   A in NY- # 35 19:06  |  David Israel 22/10/08   38.   Iran is no threat. Its the proxies that gnaw..! 20:04  |  Stephen. 22/10/08   39.   Alex from Haifa 20:45  |  Persian Kitty 22/10/08   40.   Harel is talking garbage. 23:01  |  Yo 22/10/08   41.   david Israel # 37 America should go to the defense of the victim 15:01  |  American in NY 23/10/08   42.   Ivar # 16 You are correct 15:32  |  American in NY 23/10/08

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