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ANALYSIS / Israel must adapt to reality of U.S.-Iran dialogue
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Tzipi Livni, Iran 

The Foreign Ministry document, the details of which are reported by Haaretz on Sunday, translates into official language what strategic experts have been saying for a long time: Israel will not attack Iran's nuclear facilities and must get used to the reality of the U.S.'s dialogue with Tehran, considering the expected changeover of government in Washington. Israel should keep an eye on its interests in the event of a possible U.S-Iranian dialogue, rather than live with the mistaken illusion it can unilaterally put a stop to Iranian nuclear plans.

Among the Israeli officials who say that an attack on Iran is not imminent is MK Isaac Ben-Israel (Kadima). Ben-Israel told Maariv that prime minister-designate Tzipi Livni "believes that if Iran's nuclear project is not stopped by the world, Israel will have no choice but to attack." But he also said Israel still has time. "It doesn't mean we're going to bomb in three months."

Ben-Israel says Iran needs another year and a half to two years to overcome technical problems and will attain its first nuclear device in another two to three years. Until then, there is time to bring more international pressure to bear on Tehran.
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Maj. Gen. (res.) Ben-Israel headed the administration for research and development of weapons and technological infrastructure. He was one of the planners of the bombing of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 and an adviser to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. More than other politicians, he knows what strategic bombardment involves, down to the number of sorties, flight paths, payload and enemy radar disruption.

Ben-Israel knows the Israel Air Force is capable of the attack, which would postpone Iran's nuclear program by a number of years. But he is also aware of the diplomatic ramifications of such an action, and says that Israel would attack only after the whole world realized that diplomacy had not worked.

If Ben-Israel really does represent Livni's position, Israel will not attack Iran during the rest of President George W. Bush's term, and will wait to see what his successor does. Barack Obama is commited to dialogue with Iran and is aware of the threat of an Israeli attack. After Obama's visit to Israel in July he said the Israelis would attack Iran if diplomacy failed. But it can be assumed that at the start of his term, he will oppose force and will give a chance for serious talks. Bush might make it easy for him if he decides to open an American interests section in Tehran next month.

According to the Foreign Ministry document, Israel must persuade the Americans and the Europeans to first of all halt the production of enriched uranium. But Israel fears a link between a halt to the Iranian nuclear project and regional nuclear non-proliferation. In other words, a "Natanz for Dimona" deal.

Those around Obama have great expectations of a renewal of international initiatives for arms control, which were frozen during the Bush years. First among these is a monitored halt to the manufacture of plutonium and enriched uranium. For Israel, this would mean that the world would want to check whether "foreign reports" are correct and if so, to stop work at Dimona and send a monitoring team there.

If Livni forms a government and if Obama is elected, the most important issue that will come up in their meeting will be protecting Israel's deterrence, and preventing its being sacrificed to a deal with the Iranians or a global disarmament initiative.

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      1.   Ben-Israel: Wait 2 to 3 years?! Hahahaha. 04:09  |  Yo 19/10/08
      2.   US/Iran talk, kiss Israel goodbye 05:52  |  mwg 19/10/08
      3.   Outrageous 06:18  |  Gordon 19/10/08
      4.   Israeli cycle of verbal and military violence needs a peace break 06:48  |  Ivar 19/10/08
      5.   #3 - Israel`s nukes 07:25  |  Iamashamed 19/10/08
      6.   to number 4 07:25  |  gil 19/10/08
      7.   #3 Gordon 07:29  |  Bryan 19/10/08
      8.   Israel quit crying and make peace 07:53  |  mike honcho 19/10/08
      9.   To mike #8 08:06  |  Dave 19/10/08
      10.   #5 be ashamed ... 08:11  |  Dave 19/10/08
      11.   #6 gil 08:13  |  Bryan 19/10/08
      12.   The Western champions of "peace" have opted to sell Israel ... 10:14  |  Jean Van Daem 19/10/08
      13.   #8: Honcho FOOL! 10:42  |  DAveed 19/10/08
      14.   Hard realities that Israelis ignore ... 11:10  |  spyguy 19/10/08
      15.   Yo = suicidal 11:16  |  spyguy 19/10/08
      16.   Will "International pressure" make Israel scrap all its nukes? 12:28  |  Natallie Durson 19/10/08
      17.   Iran will be a nuclear superpower 12:49  |  Siad 19/10/08
      18.   spyguy 13:48  |  rich 19/10/08
      19.   Israel must adapt to reality of U.S.-Iran ALLIANCE 14:22  |  Raed Kami 19/10/08
      20.   #18 Not everyone is as paranoid as the Israelis, rich. 15:01  |  Johnboy 19/10/08
      21.   Capable of the attack? 15:14  |  Clickfool 19/10/08
      22.   Diplomatic dialog - A radical new concept 15:19  |  Natallie Durson 19/10/08
      23.   adapting or accepting defeat? which will it be Israel 15:19  |  Avi 19/10/08
      24.   Lamashamed Uk no 5 15:20  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      25.   Iran the Soviet type super power - nukes and powerty hand in hand 15:31  |  Uri 19/10/08
      26.   Mike Honcho NY no 8 15:32  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      27.   Mike Honcho NY no 8 15:39  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      28.   Mike Honcho NY no 8 15:47  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      29.   Natallie Durson USA 16:31  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      30.   Colin Powell and Alan Dershowitz 16:40  |  Mladen Andrijasevic 19/10/08
      31.   Said Muslim world 16:42  |  Pamela 19/10/08
      32.   We must increase economic pressure to change Iran`s behavior. 17:00  |  Jean Van Daem 19/10/08
      33.   To Dave #10 17:22  |  Gordon 19/10/08
      34.   Barak Obama for President, YES! 18:06  |  Steven 19/10/08
      35.   Negotiation is not the same thing as capitulation. 18:08  |  MIKE 19/10/08
      36.   ANALYSIS / Israel must adapt to reality of U.S.-Iran dialogue 18:29  |  n_erber 19/10/08
      37.   #14 spyguy 18:34  |  yeiyel 19/10/08
      38.   Colin Powell endorses Obama and saves the USA 18:51  |  Labhras 19/10/08
      39.   Balance of Power 19:19  |  ManintheMiddle 19/10/08
      40.   Talks with Iran is what the EU tried already. It won`t stop Iran. 20:52  |  Marco 19/10/08
      41.   At the end it`s not about what you do see and what they do say.. 21:01  |  Marco 19/10/08
      42.   Iran`s nuclear program 21:49  |  Ziggy 19/10/08
      43.   M.HONCHO.Where have Hamas&Mullah patrons said PEACE is an option? 23:44  |  PETER SM 19/10/08
      44.   #3, GORDON, WTF? 01:09  |  VIPER 20/10/08
      45.   #15, SPYGUY, you forget syria 01:13  |  VIPER 20/10/08
      46.   #21 Indeed true, Clickfool 01:21  |  Johnboy 20/10/08
      47.   Please, cool off. Whatever tactical changes may happen 02:02  |  17 20/10/08
      48.   Israel in dialogue with Saudis-new USA administration will.. 04:14  |  PK 20/10/08
      49.   #37 17 appears to have had an epiphany. 08:30  |  Johnboy 20/10/08
      50.   Political speculations versus updated evaluations 13:32  |  H.H.M. 20/10/08
      51.   It is only an iluusion! 06:27  |  Yuri 22/10/08
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