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Last update - 08:45 19/10/2008
Will Hamas-Israel truce come to an end in January?
By Amos Harel
Tags: Gaza Strip, Hamas, West Bank 

Past experience indicated that we should be somewhat circumspect. In most cases when Israel prepared for a military confrontation, expected to occur at a specific date, the forecasts proved incorrect. Yasser Arafat did not declare an independent Palestinian state in May 1999, the second intifada only broke out in September 2000, and the attack on the nuclear facility in Syria in September 2007 has not (so far) resulted in war. Yet, over the past few weeks, an assessment has been forming in the defense establishment and among senior government officials that a renewed clash with Hamas in the Gaza Strip is highly likely to occur in January 2009.

For the time being, Israel is merely a secondary player in the internal Palestinian conflict, whose repercussions are likely to affect it tremendously. January 9, 2009, the day Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' (Abu Mazen) term expires, could prove to become a real watershed. The disagreements among Hamas and Fatah over the legitimacy of Abbas' continued rule from that date onward could spill over into a real conflict.

Israeli observers assume that Hamas' threat, to the effect that it will not tolerate Abbas' continued term of office, is genuine. The Islamic organization will likely use several means to undermine the PA's rule in the West Bank. It has already begun a systematic campaign of de-legitimizing the Authority in the Arab world. An extreme - but nevertheless realistic - scenario foresees an attempt by Hamas to assassinate the heads of the PA's security forces and perhaps even Abbas himself.
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About a month ago, Nahum Barnea reported in the mass-circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth that heads of the PA's security forces had met with senior Israel Defense Forces Central Command officers and that the Palestinians had told their Israeli counterparts that they feared for their lives. Several days later, the Palestinian chief of staff, General Dhiab al-Ali, told Avi Issacharoff in an interview with Haaretz that Fatah needed to prepare itself to reconquer Gaza from Hamas. The threat was futile - the PA's military presence in the Strip is negligent and it would prefer to focus on protecting its interests in the West Bank instead. But the message did not go unnoticed by Hamas - you, too, have something to lose.

Excuses for disturbing the calm

It is no secret that Israel is not interested in any escalation in the Gaza Strip. Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Gaby Ashkenazi were the main forces behind preventing a war with Hamas in Gaza last spring. Outgoing prime minister Ehud Olmert toed their line. In a parting interview with Yedioth Ahronoth two weeks ago, Olmert in fact vehemently defended the approach that Israel has nothing to gain from a military intervention in Gaza. On the other hand, it is precisely the increasing military coordination between the IDF and the PA's security forces, which neither side is making a real effort to hide, that could provide an excuse for Hamas to involve Israel in its confrontation with Fatah as well.

That is not the only consideration. While Hamas' political leadership in Gaza (and in this case, the senior military ranks in the Strip as well) indeed at present supports upholding the cease-fire, it is under pressure from the activists in the field, who believe this policy has exhausted itself. The region could flare up once again, following an independent attack, not sanctioned by Hamas' leadership - in the form of either an assault on Israeli tourists in Sinai (Israeli intelligence did receive such a warning some two months ago) or the renewed firing of Qassam rockets on Israel.

Israel was adamant that the tahadiyeh (cease-fire) be based on verbal understandings only, meaning that the unwritten agreement leaves both sides with a lot of room for interpretation. Hamas sporadically raises the claim, rejected by Israel, that the lull is only in effect for half a year, scheduled to end by mid-December unless Israel agrees to extend it to the West Bank as well. Israel is likely to reject such a demand, which could turn into an excuse for renewed tensions.

For now, the IDF is meeting calm with calm and only occasionally operating along the Gaza border. At the end of last month, an IDF force arrested two Hamas members who placed explosive devices on the Palestinian side of the fence. Aware that its activists had violated the cease-fire, Hamas made do with a short statement of protest that was broadcast on one of the Palestinian media channels, and quickly covered up the matter. But as a rule, Israel, too, is careful not to violate the agreement. The General Staff - with the exception of GOC Southern Command Yoav Galant, who in closed circles warns that Israel is buying a temporary lull at a high price for the future - is generally at peace with the calm. The little criticism among the senior officers relates to the politicians' lack of readiness to discuss the question of the tahadiyeh's future.

Not counting on Cairo

Over the past few months, the defense establishment has been busy preparing for various scenarios, ahead of January. A senior official in the General Staff explains that by the beginning of next year, preparations for the possibility of a renewed confrontation in the Gaza Strip will be completed. "At the moment, Gaza is at the top of our list of priorities; we are aware that the likelihood of a confrontation there is great. The possibility of a renewed conflagration in Gaza is probably higher than in the north where, despite Hezbollah's desire to avenge the death of Imad Mughniyeh [a top Hezbollah leader, assassinated in February 2008], there are more obstacles to such a clash," he says.

The fear of a flare-up in Gaza is at the basis of the warnings from senior IDF officials that time is running out for reaching a deal to free abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit. Even though no public statements were made, members of the General Staff are afraid that renewed clashes with Hamas would compromise the chance of freeing Shalit and might even prompt Hamas to try and smuggle him out of Gaza.

Israel does not hold out much hope for the Egyptian efforts, renewed last week, to mediate between Hamas and Fatah. It is not merely that the chances of the talks' success are unclear, but also that an internal Palestinian reconciliation process does not jibe with Israeli interests. Even though Israel is not blatantly "encouraging" the PA to strike at Hamas, officials in Ramallah are aware of Jerusalem's stance. This forms the backdrop to Israel's readiness to allow the deployment of PA security forces in the West Bank. (Last week it was agreed that 700 PA policemen would be sent to Hebron.) The chief of staff made this clear about a month ago when he met with regional IDF commanders in the West Bank. Where ever the PA is active, he told the commanders, we do not have to do the work ourselves. Such remarks have not been heard in the West Bank for at least seven years.

Defense Minister Barak's wavering over the appointment of a new coordinator of government activities in the territories does not stem only from the competition over the job, apparently between two senior officers in his bureau - bureau chief Brig. Gen. Mike Herzog and his military secretary, Eitan Dangot. It seems Barak is not keen on changes, since the post is currently held by an experienced replacement, the head of the Defense Ministry's policy department, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad (himself a former coordinator of government activities in the territories).

Gilad seems to be enjoying the task and was recently heard saying that "as we all know, there is nothing more permanent than something temporary." There is no doubt that Gilad is like a fish in the water when it comes to this subject. He visits the region frequently; during a tour of Gaza crossing points a few weeks ago, he cut down the lists of goods being transferred to the Strip on the grounds that there were too many luxury items. That is the kind of free hand the former coordinator, Maj. Gen. Yosef Mishlav, who had held the position permanently, did not allow himself.

Biting into the budget

As part of the effort to make the most of the lull in Gaza, the Home Front Command is stationing dozens of "elements" in the communities bordering the Strip every week. These are various kinds of protection facilities - including security rooms, street shelters and upgraded protection for schools and kindergartens. But most of the work focuses on an area located some 4.5 kilometers from the fence, on communities that are exposed not only to Qassam rocket attacks but also to the improved mortar shells Hamas received from Iran.

The problem, of course, is that the work is limited only to the area threatened by the Strip. The IDF knows that Hamas has received and produced thousands of rockets in the past few months, some of them with a relatively long range. "It is possible to put in place protection for Nahal Oz, and even for Sderot," says a senior officer. "But what about Ashkelon? And later on, what will happen to Ashdod and Kiryat Gat? If, as we suspect, Hamas has received rockets with a range of close to 30 kilometers, that means that these places, too, are within the range of fire. But if we start protecting high-rise buildings in Ashkelon, there will be no end to that. On the other hand, if the threat of rockets is not dealt with, it is clear that the residents will demand that the government do exactly that." This is not just a matter of principle, but one of economics. The costs of protecting 120,000 people in Ashkelon will be more than the economy can bear.

This debate, which has not yet been resolved, constitutes part of the defense establishment's budgetary concerns. Senior IDF officers and Defense Ministry officials have yet to digest the significance of the global financial crisis. It is clear that a worldwide recession, which would affect Israel, too, will eventually impact the defense budget. But at the same time, there are other worries that are no longer on the agenda. A mere two months ago, officers of both the army and the air force complained about the tremendous rise in living expenses, particularly in view of the rise in oil prices. Now that the price of oil has plummeted from a record $140 per barrel to less than $90, this is one less headache to deal with.

On the other hand, when Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer hints in interviews that the 2009 state budget will have to undergo changes, the defense establishment starts preparing for an attack. Defense is the largest budgetary item and significant changes apparently mean cuts there, too. The latest round on this matter ended some two months ago, without any real damage to the defense establishment - despite the media fuss kicked up by the treasury. No one touched salaries or pensions, even though the treasury once again leaked the salaries of senior officers to the media. But the economic and security agendas are liable to clash again - in a new budgetary debate, coupled with the possibility of a military flare-up. It is quite likely that then as well, the defense establishment will be blamed for exaggerating the military danger for the sake of budgetary skirmishing.

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