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U.S. Democratic candidate Barack Obama touring Israel with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in July (Moshe Milner / GPO)
Post-U.S. election, Israel will be expected to toe the line
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Israel News, Tzipi Livni 

The formative diplomatic events in the year ahead will be the presidential election in the United States and, to a lesser degree, the change of government in Jerusalem and the end of the tenure of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) as president of the Palestinian Authority.

The November 4 election will thrust the United States into an 11-week presidential transition period, in which George W. Bush will continue to wield full power, but will not be shackled by political constraints. The U.S. will have to make two decisions during this period: whether to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, and how to proceed with the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations that began at the Annapolis conference.

At the moment, the likelihood of an Israeli, American or joint Israeli-American attack on Iran appears low. There is no guarantee that such an attack can succeed, the risk is enormous, and the United States is in the throes of a profound economic crisis - not to mention the military chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan - and hardly needs more troubles. But there are also signs pointing in the opposite direction: European diplomats are taking very seriously Israeli statements to the effect that "we will not be able to live with" an Iranian nuclear bomb. They are convinced that Iran will be bombed before it becomes a nuclear power.
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Bush's freedom of action with regard to an attack on Iran is far greater than that of his successor, who will have to familiarize himself with the situation and formulate a policy. According to the scenario put forward by former British foreign secretary David Owen, in an article this past weekend in the Sunday Times of London, Israel will attack Iran under the cover of the tacit consent of the White House and, after Iran responds by trying to disrupt the flow of oil to the West, Bush will order a full-scale military strike against the Iranians. But if reports that Bush intends to open a U.S. interest section in Iran in mid-November turn out to be correct, we can forget about an attack. No one will gamble on the lives of the American diplomats, who will effectively become a "human shield" for the Iranian nuclear project.

If Iran is not attacked, and if it acquires enough fissionable material for a nuclear weapon in the coming year, the regional balance of forces will be altered: Israel will have to get used to living with a constant balance of terror, and the next U.S. administration will have to be far more respectful toward Tehran. And if Iran's nuclear timetable is prolonged, we can expect lengthy diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran over the division of influence in the Middle East.

The Israeli-Palestinian negotiations pose a far less complicated challenge than the decision about whether to bomb Iran. The immediate problem lies in the desire of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to conclude her term of office with an Israeli-Palestinian agreement of principle, based on the "two-state solution." Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, who is close to Rice, has written that she is counting on Tzipi Livni: Rice hopes that if Livni forms a government, the sides will adopt principles for a final-status solution as the basis for continuing the negotiations during the tenure of the next administration.

Neither Israel nor the Palestinians want an agreement of principles at this time. On this, there is a consensus between Livni and the Palestinian leadership. For Livni to present an agreement involving withdrawal from the West Bank and making reference to Jerusalem and the refugees would be political suicide. For Abbas and Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala), this would be another Oslo-style, partial agreement in which Israel tempts the Palestinians with vain promises for the future and in the meantime continues the occupation. Both sides will try to torpedo the Rice initiative, albeit without embarrassing her or coming off as rejectionists, and each will try to cast the blame on the other.

The coalition agreement between Livni and Ehud Barak ensures that even if she manages to form a government, it will be marked by power struggles. There is little mutual affection or regard between the prime minister-designate and her "senior deputy," and the two will be preoccupied with quarreling. Divided governments like this flinch from initiating diplomatic moves that require public and political support, but they are prone to military adventurism. As an experienced political observer noted this week, "It's hard to bomb Iran, but bombing Gaza is possible."

Livni has already signaled that she is striving for "stability," and is in no hurry to reach agreements with the Palestinians or with Syria. She is more interested in the "process" than in its outcome - in other words, she prefers meaningless talks that are helpful to Israel in the international arena, and do not entail a domestic confrontation over the evacuation of settlements. However, "the world" may expect more of her: Israel will be called upon to pay with gestures such as release of prisoners and dismantling of checkpoints, so that Abu Mazen will remain in office for another term.

Livni's main challenge, if indeed she succeeds Ehud Olmert, will be to develop good relations with Barack Obama, who appears likely to succeed President Bush in the White House. This is not only a matter of personal chemistry, but of understanding the needs and constraints of a weakened America, which is reeling under a financial crisis and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Livni will have to show understanding for the situation of the next president and not burden him with a tiresome list of the threats facing Israel. It will be best for her to present a diplomatic initiative, display a willingness to make progress with the Palestinians and the Syrians, and quietly support an American dialogue with Iran, in return for the U.S. watching out for Israel's interests.

In the long run, a resilient America will be of greater help than anything else to Israel's security-related and international standing. Obama will aspire to improve the status and image of the U.S. internationally, after the nadir reached under Bush's eight years in office. That effort will oblige him to take an interest in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, if only to placate those who supported him in his run for the presidency. Israel will have to be careful not to give the impression that it is hampering Obama's foreign policy, like a kind of vestige from the Bush period. Accordingly, Jerusalem will have to shy away from moves that will look like provocations in the international arena, such as authorizing extensive building in the settlements, at least until it becomes clear who Obama is and how he is going about the business of being president.

Obama will not have time on his hands to mediate between Israel and the Arabs. He will have to decide whether to appoint a special presidential emissary to the region. Perhaps someone like Richard Holbrooke, who mediated between the factions in former Yugoslavia, with rich experience, a broad mandate and an open line to the White House. The Israelis and Palestinians have neutralized quite a few such mediators in the past, and can succeed in doing the same with the next emissary, but, as in the case of Rice, they will have to go about it very carefully, without offending the new president.

Livni will find it difficult to depend on the Jewish establishment in the U.S., which for the most part worked against Obama. She will need a close liaison with the president. Perhaps Lester Crown, the 82-year-old Chicago billionaire, who was one of Obama's first Jewish supporters in the primaries against Hillary Clinton. Crown is closely connected to Israel, takes an interest in its strategic problems, and will undoubtedly be able to intervene at moments of crisis.

And crises there will be. Israel's strategic arena is fraught with points of friction that are liable to erupt at any moment: Hezbollah's threatened revenge for the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, the renewal of rocket fire from Gaza, a third intifada in the West Bank, settler violence against Palestinians and much more. How the new leaders here and in Washington handle these problems will determine their place in history.

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