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Last update - 03:34 12/10/2008 ANALYSIS / Gilad Shalit is still in captivity - who is to blame? By Amos Harel Tags: Israel Defense Forces  The approaching end of Ehud Olmert's term as prime minister has coincided with a wave of media reports about Gilad Shalit's abduction and the ongoing negotiations over his release. Why now? Because it seems as though Olmert, despite his recent efforts to find a compromise that would salvage the negotiations, is likely to end his term with Shalit still in captivity. Thus this is an appropriate time for an interim assessment. The gloomy picture includes a lot of bad blood, both personal and organizational. Everyone involved in the affair, from the kidnapping itself to the negotiations, has failed; thus they all have an interest in trying to shift some of the blame to others. This is not just a matter of the strain between Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak; it includes tension between the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service and within the IDF itself. Advertisement Following are the principal points at issue: b The kidnapping itself. Here, there is no argument that the blame lies mainly with the IDF. But there are numerous subsidiary disputes: How precise was the warning the Shin Bet relayed before the abduction? Could the interrogation of Hamas operative Mustafa Muammar have produced critical information sooner? Did the 24-hour delay in his arrest result in vital information being obtained too late? b The failure to locate Shalit. For over a year, the IDF and the Shin Bet have been quarreling over who is responsible for obtaining precise information about where Shalit is being held - a necessary condition for any rescue attempt. The IDF accuses the Shin Bet of apathy and lack of initiative; the Shin Bet charges that the army is not allocating enough resources to this matter. About six months ago, Olmert laid the blame squarely on the Shin Bet. b The failure to conclude a deal. For this, much of the blame obviously rests with Hamas' exaggerated demands. But Israel's leadership is divided over what price the country ought to pay: Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, who opposes a large-scale prisoner release and presents data showing that a significant percentage of prisoners released in the past have resumed terrorist activity, is at odds with IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and the government's lead negotiator, Ofer Dekel, who believe that time is running out for a deal. Members of the IDF General Staff wonder whether Diskin would take a similarly hard line had the victim been a Shin Bet agent. b The link between Shalit and the truce in Gaza. Israel walked into this trap with open eyes. Last week, Olmert's associates blamed Barak for it, but in truth, the entire government knew quite well that Egypt's pledge to accelerate the talks over Shalit once the Gaza border crossings were reopened was vague, and that Hamas did not necessarily feel bound by it. As a footnote to all these disputes, Yedioth Ahronoth last week published a chapter from the book Dekel is writing about the negotiations he conducted with Hezbollah over the return of the bodies of two other kidnapped soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Nothing could better illustrate the "end-of-term" atmosphere on Israel's side. And that atmosphere might be justified were it not for one minor detail: Gilad Shalit is still in captivity. Related articles: Israel Harel / From Rabin Square to Palestine Square Olmert: Mistake to link Shalit release with Gaza truce Israeli security officials: Time running out on Shalit deal Bookmark to del.icio.us   Hair apparent Ultra-Orthodox shop unveils 'Sarah Palin Wig' based on Alaska governor's famous 'do. Protocols of Wall Street 'Report': Jewish execs sent $400 billion to Israel before Lehman Brothers' demise.   1.   Olmert chose 04:15  |  Mark Lincoln 12/10/08   2.   blame ehud 05:03  |  Mark 12/10/08   3.   Caesar`s Rule 05:07  |  Jim 12/10/08   4.   WHO IS TO BLAME? HOW ABOUT HAMass and Iran? 05:40  |  dav zee 12/10/08   5.   #1, Mark Lincoln 05:43  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/10/08   6.   Israeli news media bears most of the blame! 05:57  |  Voice of Reason 12/10/08   7.   Shalit is Caught in the Cracks 06:24  |  Mark of Lewiston 12/10/08   8.   #4, dav zee, you are right 06:46  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/10/08   9.   Arms trafficking is a heavy background 07:08  |  Gordon 12/10/08   10.   #5 Cipora Julianna Kohn 07:25  |  Jim 12/10/08   11.   Who cares who`s to blame. Let`s go in and get him out! 07:30  |  Tova M. 12/10/08   12.   The benefits of the waiting game 07:37  |  Natallie Durson 12/10/08   13.   One son of Israel... 08:29  |  sandra chitayat 12/10/08   14.   Unjustified defeatist whining self-criticism 08:33  |  An American 12/10/08   15.   #7, Mark of Lewiston 09:00  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/10/08   16.   #12, Durson 09:04  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 12/10/08   17.   We Israelis are all to blame for 09:35  |  Sima 12/10/08   18.   The Shalit-case has at least one "good" thing...... 11:11  |  Swiss (Dino) 12/10/08   19.   The blaming game, political hype as usual. 11:30  |  Stephen. 12/10/08   20.   still in captivity 13:16  |  rm 12/10/08   21.   shalit... captive for 3 years.... 13:37  |  ravi 12/10/08   22.   Blame & Some Solutions 13:49  |  Gideon Reader 12/10/08   23.   Hamas did not necessarily feel bound by it. 14:11  |  Sabah 12/10/08   24.   # Voice of nonsense 14:12  |  A.M. 12/10/08   25.   Gilad is still in captivity,Why? 14:28  |  David Nigel Braham 12/10/08   26.   The blame is clear 14:48  |  Proud Israeli 12/10/08   27.   IF Israel recognized Hamas, would they release Shalit? 15:39  |  Alicia 12/10/08   28.   the base commander is to blame 17:16  |  victor hardman 12/10/08   29.   Who Is To Blame 19:13  |  Robert Hedglen 12/10/08   30.   He`s already a casualty of war 19:14  |  dyinglikeflies 12/10/08   31.   Of course Cipora, Natallie is correct... 19:45  |  BBSNews 12/10/08   32.   Gilad Shalit 19:58  |  Helena Abram 12/10/08   33.   #4 dav zee The Enemy Within 20:44  |  Jim 12/10/08   34.   #30 dyinglikeflies 21:54  |  Jim 12/10/08   35.   #31 BBSNews 22:02  |  Jim 12/10/08   36.   # 31 Oblivious in North Carolina--Making Peace 22:27  |  Robert Hedglen 12/10/08   37.   Robert and non-factual histrionics... 23:21  |  BBSNews 12/10/08   38.   Non Factual Robert 02:19  |  Robert Hedglen 13/10/08   39.   Pollard is still in prison - who is to blame 04:59  |  BradL 13/10/08   40.   How can Haaretz even ask the question? 07:33  |  Jon 13/10/08   41.   Robert on Ahmadinejad et al - 2nd try 08:34  |  BBSNews 13/10/08   42.   #31 BBS news - wrong again 08:49  |  Adrian de Klerk 13/10/08   43.   BBS Make enough distortions and hope people wont bother to reply 08:55  |  PETER SM 13/10/08   44.   International RED CROSS 08:59  |  lily 13/10/08   45.   Alicia you are correct. 09:01  |  lily 13/10/08   46.   #19, Stephen 09:32  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 13/10/08

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