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Last update - 01:34 07/10/2008
The crunch has come
By Eytan Avriel

Now we know: Every country in Europe has its own financial skeletons in the closet. After failing to create a pan-European rescue a la America's $700 billion bailout, each country is trying to solve its own troubles alone.

Germany is looking at a $50 billion rescue of its second-biggest lender. Italy is trying to shore up Unicredit, its biggest bank. Similar drives are underway from Belgium to Iceland to Greece.
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Generally, the European answers are not like America's: Instead of a giant kitty to buy sick assets, they involve capital injections into rickety banks, whether government money or through mergers.

But just as in the United States, investors and savers are losing faith. Germany's Angela Merkel vowed to guarantee the public's deposits, but the public was not wowed. Iceland is talking about national bankruptcy and wondering if anybody will come to its rescue. The credit crisis is worsening.

And the markets are reacting. Yesterday, Europe's investors dumped bank stocks at any price. Dozens of financial institutions lost vast value and sent the exchanges into a downward spiral. Stock exchanges from Asia to Latin America lost 10% and more, their sharpest drops in 20 years.

Tel Aviv stocks were surprisingly resilient, but when Wall Street started with losses, local sanguinity evaporated. Local indexes lost as much as 6% before rallying, to a degree. These days, Tel Aviv indexes are not being affected by local events much: They are dancing to the tunes of Germany and Wall Street.

The crisis in global banking is not the end of the story. Yesterday, it emerged that the crisis has spread to the rest of the economy. The global economy is sinking into recession. The evidence is everywhere. Industrial and service companies cannot find financing, and if they do, they are paying sky-high prices. Companies, even those that deal in commodities or staples, are lowering their revenue and profit forecasts.

Leaders, including U.S. President George Bush, admit that the trouble has hit small business. The German software giant SAP published an earnings warning and its stock crashed, losing 17% in a day.

Now the crisis is here. It is reaching all companies, all workers, all consumers. Nobody can rule out any scenario, any collapse - or any need for government intervention.
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