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Last update - 12:10 05/10/2008
ANALYSIS / IDF plans to use disproportionate force in next war
By Amos Harel
Tags: IAF, Second Lebanon War 

What will the next war look like? Recent statements from several senior Israeli military officials offer a surprising answer: Perhaps much like the last one.

Following on the Israel Defense Forces' failure in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the army is likely to resume fortifying its maneuvering capability, represented by the Armored and Infantry Corps, at the expense of its firepower, particularly that of the Air Force.

However, a recent interview with GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot, and articles written by two senior reserve officers, indicate that the IDF will continue to give first priority to firepower, even if the targets it chooses are different than those chosen in previous conflicts.
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This is not merely a theoretical matter. Though neither Israel nor Hezbollah seems particularly interested in another round of fighting, another conflagration is certainly possible. This could come as a result of a revenge attack for the February killing of senior Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh, for which the group blames Israel, or as an Israeli response to the group's smuggling of anti-aircraft weapons into Lebanon.

In an interview Friday with the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, Eisenkot presented his "Dahiyah Doctrine," under which the IDF would expand its destructive power beyond what it demonstrated two years ago against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyah, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.

"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. From our perspective, these are military bases," he said. "This isn't a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized."

Colonel (Res.) Gabriel Siboni recently authored a report through Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies backing Eisenkot's statements.

The answer to rocket and missile threats from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, he believes, is "a disproportionate strike at the heart of the enemy's weak spot, in which efforts to hurt launch capability are secondary. As soon as the conflict breaks out, the IDF will have to operate in a rapid, determined, powerful and disproportionate way against the enemy's actions."

"This strike has to be carried out as quickly as possible, through prioritizing strikes at its assets, rather than chasing after launch sites. Such a response is likely to be remembered by decision makers in Syria and Lebanon for many years, thus deepening deterrence," he said.

Major General (Res.) Giora Eiland, formerly head of the National Security Council, belongs to a similar school of thought, and even goes a step further.

He believes Israel failed in the Second Lebanon War and is liable to fail in a third such war, because it is fighting the wrong enemy: Hezbollah, instead of the state of Lebanon itself.

Writing for an INSS publication set to come out this week, Eiland states it is impossible to beat an efficient guerrilla army supported by a state immune from retribution. The fact that Hezbollah has rebuilt its strongholds beneath the Shi'ite villages in southern Lebanon will make any IDF maneuvering efforts difficult, he writes, adding that targeted strikes against rocket launch sites will not decrease the number of rockets fired at Israel.

"Hezbollah operates under optimal conditions from our perspective. A legitimate government runs Lebanon, supported by the West, but it is in fact entirely subordinate to the will of the Shi'ite organization," he writes.

Eiland recommends preemptive action: that Israel pass a clear message to the Lebanese government, as soon as possible, stating that in the next war, the Lebanese army will be destroyed, as will the civilian infrastructure.

"People won't be going to the beach in Beirut while Haifa residents are in shelters," he writes.

While Eisenkot and Siboni deal primarily with striking Shi'ite strongholds, Eiland sees Lebanon's infrastructure as a primary target, in a plan highly reminiscent of the one proposed by then-IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz, which was eventually shot down by U.S. opposition.

Eisenkot's "Dahiyah Doctrine" also raises a number of questions about a possible international backlash, which could end the conflict under conditions favorable to the enemy.

What the three officials have in common, surprisingly, is their emphasis on air power. Anyone who thinks the Air Force will step aside given the results of the last Lebanon war will likely be proven wrong.

Related articles:
  • Ex-IDF chief Ya'alon: Air force failed in Second Lebanon War
  • Olmert: Israel will unleash all its force if Hezbollah siezes Lebanon
  • ANALYSIS / Two years on, IDF is starting to look like an army that can fight a war
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      1.   Next War: Israel will play to win?? 10:51  |  Mke 05/10/08
      2.   "IDF plans to use disproportionate force in next war" 12:33  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/10/08
      3.   next time Hezbulla start a fight Israel must invade Syria 12:37  |  zionist forever 05/10/08
      4.   I will believe it when I see it 12:52  |  Sam 05/10/08
      5.   Massive force? What a new idea! 12:57  |  Gideon Reader 05/10/08
      6.   All`s fair in love and war 13:00  |  Rina 05/10/08
      7.   the best and most effective strategy at last 13:09  |  harzion 05/10/08
      8.   targetting katyushas is a waste of time 13:11  |  harzion 05/10/08
      9.   To Swiss (Dino) 13:12  |  Daniel 05/10/08
      10.   Sounds all good to me... 13:13  |  Protected civilian 05/10/08
      11.   the villages of south lebanon are alarmed 13:14  |  harzion 05/10/08
      12.   daisy cutters 13:16  |  harzion 05/10/08
      13.   #3, ZIONIST FOREVER, good luck 13:16  |  VIPER 05/10/08
      14.   This would come as no surprise 13:17  |  Natallie Durson 05/10/08
      15.   Have it crossed Israel mind to try Peace with Lebanon? 13:18  |  Lobo08 05/10/08
      16.   Israel should exterminate any opposition in next war!!! 13:22  |  arthur 05/10/08
      17.   with traitorous Kadima in power,israel will lose the next war too 13:31  |  chaim 05/10/08
      18.   LOBO Have you heard the threats regularly emanating from Lebanon 13:32  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      19.   VIPER You only own the politicians in Australia who neeed you to 13:46  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      20.   The will defeat he enemy - from where outer space? 13:47  |  Avi 05/10/08
      21.   "disproportionate force ?"` 13:48  |  rachel simson 05/10/08
      22.   Nuclear War? 13:53  |  Al 05/10/08
      23.   OVERWHELMING force is the only way to defeat a guerilla force 13:59  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      24.   excellent point Rachel Simson - ditto 14:00  |  Avi 05/10/08
      25.   OF COURSE the Lebs could avoid it all by not starting another war 14:02  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      26.   I worry when I hear generals talking, I rather do D walk 14:11  |  Showme Dmoney 05/10/08
      27.   Israeli Stupidity 14:13  |  tbart 05/10/08
      28.   WAR IS EASY 14:14  |  Robert of Jerusalem 05/10/08
      29.   What is Correct and Incorrect in this Doctrine 14:17  |  Joseph 05/10/08
      30.   scary 14:17  |  rm 05/10/08
      31.   What is Correct and Incorrect in this Doctrine 14:25  |  Joseph 05/10/08
      32.   A Natural Response 14:30  |  Awake 05/10/08
      33.   Lobo08 - has it crossed your mind 14:34  |  ChanahS 05/10/08
      34.   Swis Dino 14:39  |  Pamela 05/10/08
      35.   HEZBALLAH and HAMAS should be wiped off forever, together with... 14:40  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      36.   Future War? really ... 14:40  |  TV on the radio 05/10/08
      37.   Lobo 08 14:49  |  Pamela 05/10/08
      38.   Israel declares focus on killing civilians 15:00  |  Aaron Levitt 05/10/08
      39.   Fools never learn, part 2 15:07  |  Frank 05/10/08
      40.   A strategy of hellfire and damnation 15:10  |  Bitin Dawg 05/10/08
      41.   Lebanon harboring terrors groups, they have to pay 15:10  |  maurice 05/10/08
      42.   Time to destroy them (Lebanon and Nazibullah)... 15:11  |  Jean 05/10/08
      43.   Putting our security first?Not a Kadima goal 15:14  |  Arie 05/10/08
      44.   IDF morons. 15:15  |  Michael 05/10/08
      45.   Disproportionate? Relative concept 15:17  |  Arie 05/10/08
      46.   Disproprtionate Force 15:20  |  Sylvia 05/10/08
      47.   Lebeanese must decide 15:26  |  ScotGuy 05/10/08
      48.   #2 Dino 15:32  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      49.   we are waiting for you! 15:34  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      50.   Sylvia`s big mistake 15:34  |  utagawa 05/10/08
      51.   #9 Daniel in Findland, nice blog! 15:34  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      52.   The man who learned nothing 15:35  |  Mark Lincoln 05/10/08
      53.   Robert of Jerusalem 15:36  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      54.   #15 Lobo 15:42  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      55.   Making the I.D.F. a credible deterrent once again is a ... 15:44  |  Jean Van Daem 05/10/08
      56.   Disproportionate force against Lebanon? 15:45  |  Giorgio S. Frankel 05/10/08
      57.   Where are the technological solutions? 15:45  |  idf_sergeant 05/10/08
      58.   #38 Sylvia:Your message prooves that such "supporters" as you... 15:50  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      59.   ADMITTING IDF HELD BACK FOR NAUGHT ON HEZBLAHBLAHBLAH! 15:51  |  jewish doctor 05/10/08
      60.   Peter Sm israel sailing in a sinking ship 15:53  |  Truth 05/10/08
      61.   Loto08:Don`t pretend you live in Israel.You are ignorant of real 15:56  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      62.   utagawa re shedding tears 15:57  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      63.   #27 Israel stupidity............. 15:58  |  John Allen