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Last update - 00:00 05/10/2008
ANALYSIS / IDF plans to use disproportionate force in next war
By Amos Harel
Tags: IAF, Second Lebanon War 

What will the next war look like? Recent statements from several senior Israeli military officials offer a surprising answer: Perhaps much like the last one.

Following on the Israel Defense Forces' failure in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the army is likely to resume fortifying its maneuvering capability, represented by the Armored and Infantry Corps, at the expense of its firepower, particularly that of the Air Force.

However, a recent interview with GOC Northern Command Gadi Eisenkot, and articles written by two senior reserve officers, indicate that the IDF will continue to give first priority to firepower, even if the targets it chooses are different than those chosen in previous conflicts.
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This is not merely a theoretical matter. Though neither Israel nor Hezbollah seems particularly interested in another round of fighting, another conflagration is certainly possible. This could come as a result of a revenge attack for the February killing of senior Hezbollah operative Imad Mughniyeh, for which the group blames Israel, or as an Israeli response to the group's smuggling of anti-aircraft weapons into Lebanon.

In an interview Friday with the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, Eisenkot presented his "Dahiyah Doctrine," under which the IDF would expand its destructive power beyond what it demonstrated two years ago against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyah, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.

"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. From our perspective, these are military bases," he said. "This isn't a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized."

Colonel (Res.) Gabriel Siboni recently authored a report through Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies backing Eisenkot's statements.

The answer to rocket and missile threats from Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, he believes, is "a disproportionate strike at the heart of the enemy's weak spot, in which efforts to hurt launch capability are secondary. As soon as the conflict breaks out, the IDF will have to operate in a rapid, determined, powerful and disproportionate way against the enemy's actions."

"This strike has to be carried out as quickly as possible, through prioritizing strikes at its assets, rather than chasing after launch sites. Such a response is likely to be remembered by decision makers in Syria and Lebanon for many years, thus deepening deterrence," he said.

Major General (Res.) Giora Eiland, formerly head of the National Security Council, belongs to a similar school of thought, and even goes a step further.

He believes Israel failed in the Second Lebanon War and is liable to fail in a third such war, because it is fighting the wrong enemy: Hezbollah, instead of the state of Lebanon itself.

Writing for an INSS publication set to come out this week, Eiland states it is impossible to beat an efficient guerrilla army supported by a state immune from retribution. The fact that Hezbollah has rebuilt its strongholds beneath the Shi'ite villages in southern Lebanon will make any IDF maneuvering efforts difficult, he writes, adding that targeted strikes against rocket launch sites will not decrease the number of rockets fired at Israel.

"Hezbollah operates under optimal conditions from our perspective. A legitimate government runs Lebanon, supported by the West, but it is in fact entirely subordinate to the will of the Shi'ite organization," he writes.

Eiland recommends preemptive action: that Israel pass a clear message to the Lebanese government, as soon as possible, stating that in the next war, the Lebanese army will be destroyed, as will the civilian infrastructure.

"People won't be going to the beach in Beirut while Haifa residents are in shelters," he writes.

While Eisenkot and Siboni deal primarily with striking Shi'ite strongholds, Eiland sees Lebanon's infrastructure as a primary target, in a plan highly reminiscent of the one proposed by then-IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz, which was eventually shot down by U.S. opposition.

Eisenkot's "Dahiyah Doctrine" also raises a number of questions about a possible international backlash, which could end the conflict under conditions favorable to the enemy.

What the three officials have in common, surprisingly, is their emphasis on air power. Anyone who thinks the Air Force will step aside given the results of the last Lebanon war will likely be proven wrong.

Related articles:
  • Ex-IDF chief Ya'alon: Air force failed in Second Lebanon War
  • Olmert: Israel will unleash all its force if Hezbollah siezes Lebanon
  • ANALYSIS / Two years on, IDF is starting to look like an army that can fight a war
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      1.   Next War: Israel will play to win?? 10:51  |  Mke 05/10/08
      2.   "IDF plans to use disproportionate force in next war" 12:33  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/10/08
      3.   next time Hezbulla start a fight Israel must invade Syria 12:37  |  zionist forever 05/10/08
      4.   I will believe it when I see it 12:52  |  Sam 05/10/08
      5.   Massive force? What a new idea! 12:57  |  Gideon Reader 05/10/08
      6.   All`s fair in love and war 13:00  |  Rina 05/10/08
      7.   the best and most effective strategy at last 13:09  |  harzion 05/10/08
      8.   targetting katyushas is a waste of time 13:11  |  harzion 05/10/08
      9.   To Swiss (Dino) 13:12  |  Daniel 05/10/08
      10.   Sounds all good to me... 13:13  |  Protected civilian 05/10/08
      11.   the villages of south lebanon are alarmed 13:14  |  harzion 05/10/08
      12.   daisy cutters 13:16  |  harzion 05/10/08
      13.   #3, ZIONIST FOREVER, good luck 13:16  |  VIPER 05/10/08
      14.   This would come as no surprise 13:17  |  Natallie Durson 05/10/08
      15.   Have it crossed Israel mind to try Peace with Lebanon? 13:18  |  Lobo08 05/10/08
      16.   Israel should exterminate any opposition in next war!!! 13:22  |  arthur 05/10/08
      17.   with traitorous Kadima in power,israel will lose the next war too 13:31  |  chaim 05/10/08
      18.   LOBO Have you heard the threats regularly emanating from Lebanon 13:32  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      19.   VIPER You only own the politicians in Australia who neeed you to 13:46  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      20.   The will defeat he enemy - from where outer space? 13:47  |  Avi 05/10/08
      21.   "disproportionate force ?"` 13:48  |  rachel simson 05/10/08
      22.   Nuclear War? 13:53  |  Al 05/10/08
      23.   OVERWHELMING force is the only way to defeat a guerilla force 13:59  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      24.   excellent point Rachel Simson - ditto 14:00  |  Avi 05/10/08
      25.   OF COURSE the Lebs could avoid it all by not starting another war 14:02  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      26.   I worry when I hear generals talking, I rather do D walk 14:11  |  Showme Dmoney 05/10/08
      27.   Israeli Stupidity 14:13  |  tbart 05/10/08
      28.   WAR IS EASY 14:14  |  Robert of Jerusalem 05/10/08
      29.   What is Correct and Incorrect in this Doctrine 14:17  |  Joseph 05/10/08
      30.   scary 14:17  |  rm 05/10/08
      31.   What is Correct and Incorrect in this Doctrine 14:25  |  Joseph 05/10/08
      32.   A Natural Response 14:30  |  Awake 05/10/08
      33.   Lobo08 - has it crossed your mind 14:34  |  ChanahS 05/10/08
      34.   Swis Dino 14:39  |  Pamela 05/10/08
      35.   HEZBALLAH and HAMAS should be wiped off forever, together with... 14:40  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      36.   Future War? really ... 14:40  |  TV on the radio 05/10/08
      37.   Lobo 08 14:49  |  Pamela 05/10/08
      38.   Israel declares focus on killing civilians 15:00  |  Aaron Levitt 05/10/08
      39.   Fools never learn, part 2 15:07  |  Frank 05/10/08
      40.   A strategy of hellfire and damnation 15:10  |  Bitin Dawg 05/10/08
      41.   Lebanon harboring terrors groups, they have to pay 15:10  |  maurice 05/10/08
      42.   Time to destroy them (Lebanon and Nazibullah)... 15:11  |  Jean 05/10/08
      43.   Putting our security first?Not a Kadima goal 15:14  |  Arie 05/10/08
      44.   IDF morons. 15:15  |  Michael 05/10/08
      45.   Disproportionate? Relative concept 15:17  |  Arie 05/10/08
      46.   Disproprtionate Force 15:20  |  Sylvia 05/10/08
      47.   Lebeanese must decide 15:26  |  ScotGuy 05/10/08
      48.   #2 Dino 15:32  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      49.   we are waiting for you! 15:34  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      50.   Sylvia`s big mistake 15:34  |  utagawa 05/10/08
      51.   #9 Daniel in Findland, nice blog! 15:34  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      52.   The man who learned nothing 15:35  |  Mark Lincoln 05/10/08
      53.   Robert of Jerusalem 15:36  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      54.   #15 Lobo 15:42  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      55.   Making the I.D.F. a credible deterrent once again is a ... 15:44  |  Jean Van Daem 05/10/08
      56.   Disproportionate force against Lebanon? 15:45  |  Giorgio S. Frankel 05/10/08
      57.   Where are the technological solutions? 15:45  |  idf_sergeant 05/10/08
      58.   #38 Sylvia:Your message prooves that such "supporters" as you... 15:50  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      59.   ADMITTING IDF HELD BACK FOR NAUGHT ON HEZBLAHBLAHBLAH! 15:51  |  jewish doctor 05/10/08
      60.   Peter Sm israel sailing in a sinking ship 15:53  |  Truth 05/10/08
      61.   Loto08:Don`t pretend you live in Israel.You are ignorant of real 15:56  |  Vittorio 05/10/08
      62.   utagawa re shedding tears 15:57  |  northern neighbor 05/10/08
      63.   #27 Israel stupidity............. 15:58  |  John Allen 05/10/08
      64.   To Utagawa #41 16:01  |  Sylvia 05/10/08
      65.   Most posters here are ignorant... 16:05  |  Joseph Levy 05/10/08
      66.   Most posters here are ignorant... 16:05  |  Joseph Levy 05/10/08
      67.   Correct 16:06  |  Ron 05/10/08
      68.   next war 16:07  |  Jasper 05/10/08
      69.   northern neighbour we occupied lebanon 16:07  |  harzion 05/10/08
      70.   northern neighbour you fired 4500 rockets which killed 35 16:09  |  harzion 05/10/08
      71.   northern neighbour regards from the most powerful nation 16:12  |  harzion 05/10/08
      72.   arthur 16 16:13  |  Anthony 05/10/08
      73.   Sylvia 38 16:19  |  ChanahS 05/10/08
      74.   air power means downed pilots... 16:20  |  Rob of melbourne 05/10/08
      75.   Hezbulla Lebanon 16:30  |  Alawi 05/10/08
      76.   Stop this stupid lie 16:40  |  Anton 05/10/08
      77.   Extreme force will be answered by extreme retaliation 16:49  |  Aounist 05/10/08
      78.   #38 Sylvia.....good idea 16:57  |  Lynn 05/10/08
      79.   # 2 go and live in Haifa to learn what is proportion 16:57  |  CM 05/10/08
      80.   dino and all other with the same ideas 17:10  |  leon 05/10/08
      81.   Natallie, ma cherie 17:14  |  Once you go Omar 05/10/08
      82.   Northern Neighbour 17:25  |  Robert of Jerusalem 05/10/08
      83.   #49 1000 dead comparison with other conflicts 17:26  |  Bob 05/10/08
      84.   #15 Lebanon refuses to sit down and discuss peace 17:28  |  DesMnsDave 05/10/08
      85.   Anton, your military opinion is limited 2D technology of D past 17:35  |  Showme Dmoney 05/10/08
      86.   force 17:39  |  Yitz 05/10/08
      87.   #48 Hizbollah is Iran`s doggy not a party 17:40  |  ScotGuy 05/10/08
      88.   Anton who cares about Hezballah? 17:45  |  x-ray 05/10/08
      89.   Root cause 17:54  |  sam 05/10/08
      90.   Why strike Lebanon? 18:02  |  rigma 05/10/08
      91.   Finkelstein Is Right - No Peace Unless Israel Suffers A Defeat 18:28  |  chet 05/10/08
      92.   MEDIA PRPAGANDA HINT FOR A `CERTAIN` WAR? 18:37  |  JACKAL 05/10/08
      93.   Hizballa has official veto power over Lebenase Gov.t Decisions 18:37  |  Tom 05/10/08
      94.   Leb govt endorsement of hezbollah with widespread 18:38  |  jj 05/10/08
      95.   Analysis, Dino #2 18:42  |  Judge 05/10/08
      96.   #43 Mark Lincoln 18:50  |  fiona 05/10/08
      97.   How about us Americans?? 18:56  |  Kevin Moore 05/10/08
      98.   `IDF plans to use disproportionate force in next war ` 19:17  |  Colin Wright 05/10/08
      99.   IDF Must Use Disproportionate Force To Liberate Shalit . 19:36  |  Joseph.E 05/10/08
      100.   Mark Lincoln # 43 The Mistake During Lebanon II 19:38  |  Jeff Northridge 05/10/08
      101.   The Usual 19:44  |  Sarah 05/10/08
      102.   veto power 52 19:50  |  Anthony 05/10/08
      103.   The picture for this article! 20:03  |  rigma 05/10/08
      104.   "The smell of gunpowder" 20:05  |  Hansje 05/10/08
      105.   You wont win unless... 20:06  |  Michael 05/10/08
      106.   Kevin Moore clearly didn`t watch the debates 20:08  |  Awake 05/10/08
      107.   Kevin Moore - Why do you read israeli paper? 20:10  |  David israel 05/10/08
      108.   Kevin Moore 20:17  |  Cargl 05/10/08
      109.   Finkelstein Is Right - No Peace Unless Israel Suffers A Defeat 20:53  |  chet 05/10/08
      110.   Kevin Moore 54 21:05  |  ChanahS 05/10/08
      111.   If you were in space 21:05  |  Dave Duncan 05/10/08
      112.   # 9 Daniel / # 34 Pamela (2nd try) 21:08  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/10/08
      113.   Hey VIPER, whatever you can do I can do better 21:18  |  Dan 05/10/08
      114.   "Employing New Strategies"... 21:21  |  Yosemite 05/10/08
      115.   Hezbanon, what part of don`t attack us don`t you understand? 21:21  |  Seem logical 05/10/08
      116.   Proportionality does not deter 21:27  |  Leo 05/10/08
      117.   Empty Threats 21:32  |  Anti Zionist 05/10/08
      118.   Fools never learn, part 2 22:06  |  Frank 05/10/08
      119.   The next war will be against the Settlers 22:12  |  Ivar 05/10/08
      120.   "Proportionate Force" is Leftist for "Lose" 22:14  |  UsedToPostHere 05/10/08
      121.   CHET Is Hezballa/Iran/Hamas offering peace as an option? Where? 22:21  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      122.   ANTI ZIONIST the threats and war came from your side 22:26  |  PETER SM 05/10/08
      123.   Swiss (Dino):Your Post Is The Joke of theYear 22:30  |  Brad 05/10/08
      124.   Israel = Brainless country........... 22:37  |  Diego 05/10/08
      125.   #54 Kevin Moore......not hardly 22:38  |  Lynn 05/10/08
      126.   # 58 Cargl.....You didn`t watch them either 22:41  |  Lynn 05/10/08
      127.   Next War 22:41  |  Howard 05/10/08
      128.   Zionist forever 22:42  |  Eli Epstein 05/10/08
      129.   Dino #62 -- What about "escalation"? 22:44  |  Awake 05/10/08
      130.   Bravo ! finally someone who thinks ! 22:46  |  Ash 05/10/08
      131.   Kevin, Grow Up: Live Extravagantly, Die Ignominiously 22:46  |  Brad 05/10/08
      132.   Swiss (Dino) # 62 _ Re Your Post 22:49  |  Eli 05/10/08
      133.   israel,,fantasy land 22:55  |  sam i am 05/10/08
      134.   Israel to lose also with disproportionate use of force 23:02  |  Observer 05/10/08
      135.   Disproportionate force? 23:03  |  Roo 05/10/08
      136.   i do think that eisencot`s statement 23:18  |  harzion 05/10/08
      137.   #14: DUHrson`s Disproportionate Illogic & Bias 23:24  |  Lavi 05/10/08
      138.   PLANNING 23:25  |  The teacher/Instruct 05/10/08
      139.   expect disproportionate international response 23:33  |  Pablo B 05/10/08
      140.   New Strategy ? 23:35  |  Bill 05/10/08
      141.   Retroactive endoresment of every Pal. terrorist attack on Israels 23:39  |  Pablo B 05/10/08
      142.   The Next War 23:48  |  Robert Nebb 05/10/08
      143.   Right Strategy in Modern Warfare 23:48  |  Brod 05/10/08
      144.   Hizabalh has no cards 23:50  |  arik 05/10/08
      145.   It`s a Lose-Lose for Israel regardless 00:01  |  Awake 06/10/08
      146.   IDF plans to inflict massive collateral damage 00:13  |  Maki 06/10/08
      147.   Pablo #101 00:15  |  Ze`ev 06/10/08
      148.   Not to worry about an International response 00:15  |  Ash 06/10/08
      149.   # 91 Awake / # 94 Eli 00:30  |  Swiss (Dino) 06/10/08
      150.   VIOLENCE is a sign of LOW IQ. 01:14  |  Neutered Observer 06/10/08
      151.   Dino -- "Escalation" again 01:30  |  Awake 06/10/08
      152.   Finally, someone with a brain 01:55  |  dan 06/10/08
      153.   dan from haifa #82 viper is good at murdering aborigines and 01:59  |  terrornator 06/10/08
      154.   #82, DAN, run forest run 02:02  |  VIPER 06/10/08
      155.   The real problem - the demise of U.S. hegemony in the M.E. 02:12  |  Maureen Ann 06/10/08
      156.   David Israel # 76 Allies? really? 02:21  |  American in NY 06/10/08
      157.   if all is fair ... 02:25  |  BT 06/10/08
      158.   roo #104 hiding behind women and children has always been the 02:29  |  terrornator 06/10/08
      159.   Disproportionate force? This is too funny. Should be disproportio 02:35  |  American in NY 06/10/08
      160.   From Pariah State To Annihilation 02:37  |  Gray 06/10/08
      161.   Now, Who Was That.... 02:44  |  Gray 06/10/08
      162.   #3 Zionist forever. "Peter the Great" on the eve of Yom Kippur. 03:11  |  Maureen Ann 06/10/08
      163.   Can`t Beat Hez. Fighters.... Then Kill Civilians 03:25  |  Gray 06/10/08
      164.   Can`t Beat Hez. Fighters.... Then Kill Civilians 03:25  |  Gray 06/10/08
      165.   For #140 - Lack Of Concern Re An International Response 03:49  |  chet 06/10/08
      166.   Multiple Posts Unintentional, Sorry 03:52  |  Gray 06/10/08
      167.   The fallacy of `disproportionate force` in total war 04:15  |  Morris Valentine 06/10/08
      168.   Am I wrong, or is he admitting that he`s a war criminal? 04:29  |  peacelover 06/10/08
      169.   If they don`t want their villages flattened, don`t start wars duh 04:30  |  Dan 06/10/08
      170.   For every 1950 Katyusha they will get a very accurate 1-ton bomb 04:33  |  Dan 06/10/08
      171.   #163 Gray: Get Out Much? Especially To The Middle East? 04:38  |  Lavi 06/10/08
      172.   Remember `we are all Hezbo`? Well that makes you all targets 04:46  |  Dan 06/10/08
      173.   Hezbanon should be grateful for Israel communicating so clearly 04:55  |  It will save 06/10/08
      174.   Did anyone happen to notice.....?? 05:18  |  Jimmy 06/10/08
      175.   #167 Morris advocates for terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians 05:33  |  Pablo B 06/10/08
      176.   I would like see a devastating force 05:34  |  TOMY 06/10/08
      177.   The old excuse was that Israel didn`t target civilians on purpose 05:42  |  Pablo B 06/10/08
      178.   Lebanon goverment 05:50  |  jorge grosz 06/10/08
      179.   Generals,Morons, and too much Testosterone 05:57  |  Jim 06/10/08
      180.   #130 Ash -BRAVO! Cheering DEATH from the sidelines, naturally! 06:05  |  PADDY 06/10/08
      181.   Lavi; Hostile, Insulting And Angry From the Get-Go.. 06:09  |  Gray 06/10/08
      182.   #3 fool`s gambit 06:16  |  Jim 06/10/08
      183.   #80 leon 06:45  |  Jim 06/10/08
      184.   PABLO B Al Manar reported Hezb. fiiring from amongnst civillians 06:52  |  PETER SM 06/10/08
      185.   #100 Jeff Northridge 06:59  |  Jim 06/10/08
      186.   GREY USING Hezb. fighters without uniforms firing at Israelis 06:59  |  PETER SM 06/10/08
      187.   PEACELOVER He is telling you how he will have a force large enoug 07:02  |  PETER SM 06/10/08
      188.   #181 Gray - hisboliar are cowards 07:08  |  Adrian de Klerk 06/10/08
      189.   #177 pablo will tell the idf how to tell civillians from combat t 08:21  |  victor hardman 06/10/08
      190.   PADDY BRAVO suddenly a humanitarian! When your side 08:24  |  PETER SM 06/10/08
      191.   #162 Moron-ann........whatcha smoking? 09:01  |  Joe Moer 06/10/08
      192.   War is NOT a game 09:12  |  Ari ben Yisrael 06/10/08
      193.   PETER SM - You are obviously not a humanitarian - no surprise. 10:15  |  PADDY 06/10/08
      194.   128 12:00  |  zionist forever 06/10/08
      195.   PADDYThe humanitarian why aren`t you telling Hezb not to start. 12:59  |  PETER SM 06/10/08
      196.   Deterance factor has to be established by all means 15:18  |  TOMY 06/10/08
      197.   No more foreign holidays for Mr. Eiland 15:50  |  Muray 06/10/08
      198.   Indeed, Mr. Northridge 16:00  |  Murray 06/10/08
      199.   PETER SM - Make up your mind! 01:33  |  PADDY 07/10/08
      200.   To Pablo B (#175) 05:34  |  Morris Valentine 07/10/08
      201.   Reality check, Mr. Valentine 11:06  |  Murray 07/10/08
      202.   To Murray (#201): Whose reality? 06:47  |  Morris Valentine 08/10/08
      203.   198 Murray, Re The nastiest enemies 11:11  |  Dutch 08/10/08
      204.   NO joke 15:53  |  Richard 27/02/09
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