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Last update - 17:18 02/10/2008
Ex-U.S. weapons hunter: Iran 2-5 years from atomic bomb
By The Associated Press
Tags: nuclear, Israel news, U.S. 

Iran is two years to five years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon, the former head of the U.S. weapons-hunting team in Iraq said Wednesday.

But David Kay said the U.S. should not consider bombing Iranian nuclear facilities unless the weapon was about to be transferred to a terrorist group.

Kay, who led the Iraq Survey Group from 2003 until early 2004, said the U.S. should line up international support to pressure Iran to give up on a nuclear weapon, while also preparing for the strong possibility that effort will fail. Preparations could include offering security guarantees to Iran's neighbors and shoring up Middle East stability and economic growth.
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Iran is 80 percent of the way to a nuclear weapon, Kay estimates, but the last 20 percent of development is the most difficult. He noted that Iran has worked on the program for 20 years without successfully producing a weapon.

"You've got a clear record of country that is damned determined at some point to develop nuclear weapons," Kay said in a talk at the Nixon Center. "The real question to ask is, 'What are the political strategies we can follow now that can lessen the impact?' of a nuclear Iran."

Iran denies it is seeking a weapon or hiding a bomb program behind its known drive to perfect nuclear technology that could be used to produce electricity. Estimates of
Iran's progress vary. Western intelligence agencies generally agree that if Iran chose to, it could field a nuclear device within a few years. Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment program this year.

Kay said there is virtually no possibility Iran will give up its uranium enrichment program, which can be used to fuel civilian reactors for domestic energy use as well as make fissile material for warheads.

He dismissed the notion that a U.S. or Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure would be effective or useful. He said it would only delay the development of a weapon by one to two years at the most, and would unite Iran's people more firmly behind its leaders.

Kay would only advocate a military attack if I found the Iranians had transferred a nuclear weapon to a third party, a terrorist organization or another state, or if it used a nuclear weapon in an attack.

The value of diplomatic outreach to Iran has been an issue in the current presidential campaign.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama favors direct diplomacy. He says he would meet Iran's leaders without precondition but after the proper groundwork is laid. Obama also says he would intensify diplomatic pressure on Tehran before Israel feels the need to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

Republican John McCain favors tougher penalties and opposes direct high-level talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. McCain's vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, recently said in a CBS television interview that the U.S. should not second guess Israel's security efforts against Iran.

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  • Iran's supreme chief says would okay future relations with U.S.
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      1.   "TRANSFERED TO TERROR GROUP" TEHRAN REGIME = TERROR GROUP 00:52  |  dp 02/10/08
      2.   Will the U.S. economy be better in 2-5 years....???? 01:07  |  Swiss (Dino) 02/10/08
      3.   Breakout Capability 01:13  |  Mark Lincoln 02/10/08
      4.   Wait until transfer? 01:30  |  Jasper 02/10/08
      5.   Bit late then? Are they going to give advance warning? 02:05  |  A.J. Myers 02/10/08
      6.   One thing is to detonate, another is to 02:07  |  Stephen. 02/10/08
      7.   TRANSFER = TOO LATE!!! 02:22  |  Joey 02/10/08
      8.   # 6 stephen 02:25  |  Axel 02/10/08
      9.   To Stephen from Geneve 03:04  |  Persian Kitty 02/10/08
      10.   #8 axel 03:07  |  mike 02/10/08
      11.   David Kay... I remember him well... 03:17  |  Che Vive 02/10/08
      12.   PURE PROPAGANDA 03:18  |  Neutered Observer 02/10/08
      13.   Estimate 03:19  |  Bob 02/10/08
      14.   #8, axel, pattering about arrogance 03:19  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/10/08
      15.   Iran and Nukes 03:29  |  Scott G 02/10/08
      16.   US has no way of tracking nuclear weapons 03:30  |  B (The other one) 02/10/08
      17.   Something Axel can be proud of. 03:35  |  Stephen in New York 02/10/08
      18.   Stephen - capabilites 04:05  |  Mark Lincoln 02/10/08
      19.   Stephen - capabilities and reality 04:09  |  Mark Lincoln 02/10/08
      20.   Earth to Stephen 04:15  |  Mark Lincoln 02/10/08
      21.   The terrorist bomb 04:19  |  Mark Lincoln 02/10/08
      22.   historical parellel 05:02  |  Rob of melbourne 02/10/08
      23.   Bomb Closer Than That! 05:06  |  FulghumInk 02/10/08
      24.   ADD this to the statements by the IAEA & the EU 05:20  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      25.   nEUTERED OBSERVER do you regard the EU&the IAEA as"pure propogand 06:00  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      26.   An American strike on Iran, will certainly be sold by the media 06:15  |  Joseph.E 02/10/08
      27.   Iran`s nuclear policy was publicly announced by... 06:37  |  ManintheMiddle 02/10/08
      28.   He Legitimise the Use of Conventional Weapons By Terrorists 06:38  |  Joseph.E 02/10/08
      29.   Why is it important for Israel to be the first to strike? 07:27  |  Jean Van Daem 02/10/08
      30.   Disinformation to distract people untilis too late 08:20  |  Yuri 02/10/08
      31.   MAN in MIDDLE Buiding an incomplete bomb is NOT part of NPT 08:39  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      32.   Huh??? Is This TRue? 09:00  |  Yosemite 02/10/08
      33.   No chance whatsoever of a strike upon Iran 09:02  |  Natallie Durson 02/10/08
      34.   #7 Joey says ... 09:08  |  spyguy 02/10/08
      35.   SPYGUY Where does Iran/Hamas say they accept ANY peace? 09:41  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      36.   SCAM 10:00  |  george hazou 02/10/08
      37.   kay is an idiot 10:00  |  obeserver 02/10/08
      38.   A Sock Puppet Speaks 10:03  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      39.   For Neutered Observer # 12 10:09  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      40.   NATALIE the sources for your inside knowledge of IAF capabilities 10:11  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      41.   For Peter SM # 25 10:13  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      42.   Mark Lincoln and facts 10:14  |  George 02/10/08
      43.   For Peter SM, again # 31 10:15  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      44.   All Middle East instability linked to Israel`s OCCUPATION 10:22  |  Ivar 02/10/08
      45.   Chamberlain-Obama instead of McCain/Palin? 10:50  |  S 02/10/08
      46.   The wise Clickfool allways knows best! 11:02  |  The Judge 02/10/08
      47.   clickfool you have no knowledge of the middle east 11:03  |  brighton rock 02/10/08
      48.   Ivar probably thinks the sun revolves around the earth, too. 11:03  |  Tzfonit 02/10/08
      49.   clickfool let us leave the route of attack to the 11:09  |  brighton rock 02/10/08
      50.   A Bomb in the hands of a terrorist group 11:10  |  Tzfonit 02/10/08
      51.   the young arab fighters will never abandon iran 11:11  |  B.Saleem 02/10/08
      52.   #42, George 11:20  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/10/08
      53.   What did I say in #45? Read B. Saleem #51! Use it in "defense" 11:22  |  S 02/10/08
      54.   For Brighton Rock # 49 11:31  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      55.   A Nuclear Iran is Not the Same as a nuclear Switzerland . 11:34  |  Joseph.E 02/10/08
      56.   #45, S 11:38  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/10/08
      57.   #35 PETER SM asks an interesting question 11:45  |  spyguy 02/10/08
      58.   Yo B.Saleem in `Azza!!! Howdy! 11:51  |  The Judge 02/10/08
      59.   S: aren`t you being a little neurotic? 11:59  |  The Judge 02/10/08
      60.   Wonderful Choices 12:14  |  Gil 02/10/08
      61.   #.9. Persian Kitty. Iran has some excellent... 12:15  |  Stephen. 02/10/08
      62.   I think,Americans don´t want war with Iran 12:18  |  Siad 02/10/08
      63.   # 8 Axe l re. Stephen # 6 12:29  |  The Teacher/Instruct 02/10/08
      64.   Mark Lincoln. Regarding Nuclear Weapons. 12:43  |  Stephen. 02/10/08
      65.   The question is not: ... 12:47  |  Edith 02/10/08
      66.   You protest to much 12:52  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      67.   # 62 Siad 12:56  |  Joseph.E 02/10/08
      68.   #.8. axel. 13:21  |  Stephen. 02/10/08
      69.   SPYGUY makes a baseless assumption. 13:22  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      70.   CFOOL Israel does not share its capabilities, or tactics with me 13:25  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      71.   Chis the non-protester 13:31  |  Hastaroth 02/10/08
      72.   clickfool saudi air defence is a joke 13:46  |  brighton rock 02/10/08
      73.   clickfool "sadly for israel" 13:48  |  brighton rock 02/10/08
      74.   Edith and what you find here 13:49  |  Tzfonit 02/10/08
      75.   Clickfool`s latest `stratergy` 13:51  |  The Judge 02/10/08
      76.   chris linthwaite your posts are informed by bigotry 13:53  |  meshack 02/10/08
      77.   Bombs away! 13:56  |  Jim 02/10/08
      78.   # 68 stephen 14:06  |  Axel 02/10/08
      79.   # 63 "teacher" 14:11  |  Axel 02/10/08
      80.   #70 Peter SM 14:26  |  Scott G 02/10/08
      81.   For Peter SM # 70 14:37  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      82.   Iranian Nuclear Weapons. 14:43  |  khairi janbek 02/10/08
      83.   The name DAVID say´s it all 15:10  |  Dav 02/10/08
      84.   Ben Jabo Ben Tize is building a shield to protect against atomic 15:33  |  Aounist 02/10/08
      85.   #76 Meshack 15:57  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      86.   #15 Must consider Israel and nuke!!! 16:03  |  trustme 02/10/08
      87.   #71 Hastaroth 16:04  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      88.   S #45 wants thermonuclear war-when does he want it? 16:33  |  Roo 02/10/08
      89.   Chris lightweight brain 16:55  |  x-ray 02/10/08
      90.   Iranian Deterrence 16:59  |  Evren 02/10/08
      91.   Let Obama try... 17:03  |  Sandra Chitayat 02/10/08
      92.   linthwaite "why is israel protesting" 17:03  |  meshack 02/10/08
      93.   axel germany was helped by israel in mogadishu 17:07  |  erwin honigstein 02/10/08
      94.   #89 x-ray 17:17  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      95.   Iran Is a terror group. 17:20  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      96.   #92 Meshack 17:24  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      97.   #34 Spyguy believes that these demented fools are smart 17:29  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      98.   #54 Clicky and Israeli Politics ... Nah 17:34  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      99.   # 74 Tfonit 17:35  |  Edith 02/10/08
      100.   # 93 erwin 17:52  |  Axel 02/10/08
      101.   # 89 x-ray 17:59  |  Axel 02/10/08
      102.   #87 Chris Linthwaite 18:05  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      103.   #87 Chris Linthwaite 18:05  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      104.   #20 earth to mark L..let`s hear it from the real experts. 18:22  |  israeli 02/10/08
      105.   #93 erwin honigstein ***axel prefers to forget this aspect,and.. 18:29  |  israeli 02/10/08
      106.   #91 sandra chitayat..let obama try...??? 18:40  |  israeli 02/10/08
      107.   how long ago did this EX-US HUNTER come up with his findings on 18:49  |  glenna 02/10/08
      108.   #91 sandra chitayat..let obama try... 20:28  |  israeli 02/10/08
      109.   #94 Big Sur 22:10  |  Chris Linthwaite 02/10/08
      110.   Shalom Israeli L`shana Tovah! 22:13  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      111.   #79 Axel Germany is one of Israels best allies now 22:21  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      112.   Nuclear Weapons 22:45  |  P. J. Casey 02/10/08
      113.   SCOTT G death penalty is the exceptioin from most of the world 22:55  |  PETER SM 02/10/08
      114.   axel it is a matter of record 22:58  |  erwin honigstein 02/10/08
      115.   axel "erwin like rubbish" 23:00  |  erwin honigstein 02/10/08
      116.   "The Bomb" in the Hands of Terrorists 23:01  |  Gray 02/10/08
      117.   For Big Sur # 94 23:08  |  Clickfool 02/10/08
      118.   hellooo suckers! Kay is trying to evoke a certain response 23:30  |  Pablo B 02/10/08
      119.   #111 Clicky you have never been to Israel I know that for a fact 23:40  |  Big Sur 02/10/08
      120.   # 109 erwin 00:01  |  Axel 03/10/08
      121.   Evren from Istanbul 00:55  |  David Israel 03/10/08
      122.   # 103 israeli 01:02  |  Axel 03/10/08
      123.   #105 Big Sur and shalom L`shana Tova to you too! 01:08  |  israeli 03/10/08
      124.   Let`s quote David Kay 01:27  |  Johnboy 03/10/08
      125.   PABLO B What Kay is saying fits in with the EU & IAEA are saying 01:53  |  PETER SM 03/10/08
      126.   George - consult some photos 02:03  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      127.   ROO Actually its Iran that wants a thermonuclear war 02:12  |  PETER SM 03/10/08
      128.   Historical parellel 02:50  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      129.   you really are mad arn`t you Allen 02:52  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      130.   No More Negotiations with Tehran 02:53  |  Gary 03/10/08
      131.   Have you suffered these delusions for long? 02:54  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      132.   More delusional speculation 02:57  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      133.   Yuri, take a deep breath 02:59  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      134.   #9, Persian Kitty , 02:59  |  Gary 03/10/08
      135.   Peter SM 03:02  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      136.   Israeli - what `experts?" 03:06  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      137.   Terrorists 03:06  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      138.   Mark L. #126: NOT GRAY`S QOUTE 04:44  |  Gray 03/10/08
      139.   Gary, and how to do that? 04:44  |  Mark Lincoln 03/10/08
      140.   Not educated enough! 05:14  |  Rigma 03/10/08
      141.   Mark Lincoln.Excuses for enriching outside the bounds of the NPT 05:34  |  PETER SM 03/10/08
      142.   To Gary from Columbus #119 05:54  |  Persian Kitty 03/10/08
      143.   Iranian nuclear bomb? 06:48  |  geoff 03/10/08
      144.   #128, Mark Licoln 07:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/10/08
      145.   #129, Mark Lincoln 07:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/10/08
      146.   #132, Mark Lincoln 07:39  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/10/08
      147.   #121, johnny, let`s not quote david kay 07:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/10/08
      148.   geoff; "Threatening the rest of the world..." ??? 08:04  |  Gray 03/10/08
      149.   Haaretz-did you read Roo #88? And you censure my response? Again 08:28  |  S 03/10/08
      150.   Right on 08:51  |  Gordon 03/10/08
      151.   #69 PETER SM makes the baseless 09:17  |  spyguy 03/10/08
      152.   For Big Sur # 116 09:27  |  Clickfool 03/10/08
      153.   Cipora` it is well known` #144 11:43  |  Roo 03/10/08
      154.   #145 CJK What does Hiroshima have 14:30  |  spyguy 03/10/08
      155.   Cipora Kohn # 146 Iran only following Israels example 16:19  |  American in NY 03/10/08
      156.   To Mark Lincoln and Gray re Gary 22:08  |  Persian Kitty 03/10/08
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