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Last update - 09:31 06/10/2008
Will Palin win Jews - and Florida - over to Obama?
By Bradley Burston
Tags: Israel News, Palin, Obama 

The scene: Washington DC. Florida Democratic Congressman Alcee Hastings, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, is addressing a panel discussion sponsored by the National Jewish Democratic Council.

"If Sarah Palin isn't enough of a reason for you to get over whatever your problem is with Barack Obama, then you damn well had better pay attention," said Hastings.
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"Anybody toting guns and stripping moose don't care too much about what they do with Jews and blacks. So, you just think this through."

___________________________


Much has changed in recent months in the campaign for the Jewish vote, but the Obama camp has reason to be concerned that one variable, perhaps the crucial variable, has not.

Barack Obama's percentage of the total Jewish vote, which could prove critical to the outcome in such key states as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, lags far behind the average for Democratic presidential hopefuls.

An American Jewish Committee poll released late last week showed Obama taking 57 percent of the Jewish vote, versus 30 percent to McCain. "He seems to have reached a plateau," AJC research director David Singer told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.

Four years ago, the AJC poll showed John Kerry with the support of 69 percent of Jewish voters, against 24 percent for George Bush, In the end, exit polls showed Kerry winning 76 percent of the total Jewish vote, to Bush's 24.

Although Sarah Palin has vocal and impassioned support among many Jews, some Democratic Jewish activists point to the Alaska governor as Obama's secret weapon in swaying the undecided voter.

They have argued that her views on such issues as abortion and gun control are at variance with the positions of the majority of American Jews.

"The Sarah Palin choice was unbelievably unpopular. That's just beginning to sink in and have an impact and will continue to have an impact in weeks to come." said Mik Moore, a leader of JewsVote.org, an effort to boost the Jewish vote among Democrats.

Hastings told the Washington panel that "Just like Jews, blacks care about affordable health care, energy independence, and the separation of church and state ... And just like blacks, Jews care about equal pay for equal work, investment in alternative energy, and a woman's right to choose."

Alongside concerns that elderly Jews may harbor reservations against voting for an African-American, prejudice of a different sort may be a factor in keeping some Jews from voting for a McCain-Palin ticket.

The New York Times' Judith Warner Thursday quoted "one older gentleman, who himself had grown up as one of the only Jews in pre-World-War-II Lincoln, Nebraska" as remarking of Palin's recent meeting with Henry Kissinger,"He's probably the first Jew she's ever met."

The issue could be particularly telling in Florida, where the Jewish population has a high percentage of retirees, and some attitudes may die hard.

It may be a matter of coincidence, but since the Palin nomination, an electoral vote-rich state which was leaning toward McCain in August has now drawn almost even in some polls. According to the Zogby polling survey, "McCain had a great early September, but now Obama has closed the gap, putting Florida back in doubt again."

The Rasmussen polling organization, which shows McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 47, said that "John McCain has lost ground in the Sunshine State, but support for Barack Obama hasn't increased."

Steven F. Windmueller of Hebrew Union College, Los Angeles, an authority on political trends and the Jewish voter, has written that, overall, the Palin effect on the Jewish electorate could go either way.

"Governor Palin is the unknown equation. Despite her conservative positions on many domestic issues, she may help solidify Jewish support for McCain as a result of her hawkish foreign policy views among Jewish voters in the red states. For more liberal Jewish voters, Palin's candidacy will serve to solidify support for the Obama ticket."

Another factor is the changing demographics of the American Jewish electorate. Striking in this regard is "The emergence of a growing segment of new American Jewish voters includes recent emigres from Russia, Israel and Iran, and the coming of age of a younger cohort of Orthodox Jewish voters," Windmuller says. "All of these constituencies are increasingly aligned with the Republican Party."

Republican Jewish activists, keen to portray Obama as soft on Iran and Islamic terror, are also certain to highlight a recent Zogby poll, which showed that Obama holds a substantial 21 point lead over Republican John McCain among Arab American voters. It should be noted that the Arab-American vote could also be crucial to the result in key battleground states, primarily Michigan, where they comnsitute fully 5 percent of the total electorate, and Virginia and Ohio, where they are nearly 2 percent.

One final note: In a new and unusually (for this campaign) light-hearted effort, Moore is also a leader of The Great Shlep, which "aims to have Jewish grandchildren visit their grandparents in Florida, educate them about Obama, and therefore swing the crucial Florida vote in his favor. Don't have grandparents in Florida? Not Jewish? No problem! You can still become a schlepper and make change happen in 2008, simply by talking to your relatives about Obama."

FLORIDA
27 electoral votes -- Too close to call.
Current leaning: McCain, but Obama closing in fast.
Recent Polling:
McCain - 48%
Obama - 47%
Not Sure/Other - 6%

Jewish population: 650,000 of 18 million total.

PENNSYLVANIA
21 Electoral Votes -- Too close to call
Current leaning: Obama
Obama - 49%
McCain - 45%
Jewish population: 285,000 of 12 million.


OHIO
20 Electoral Votes -- Current leaning: Toss-up.
Obama - 47%
McCain - 46%
Jewish population: 140,000 of 11 million.


MICHIGAN
17 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama
Obama - 51%
McCain - 44%
Jewish population: 90,000 of 10 million.


VIRGINIA
13 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama, with new lead
Obama - 50%
McCain - 45%
Jewish population: 100,000 of 7.6 million.


COLORADO
9 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama, by only slight margin
Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%
Jewish population: 80,000 of 4.7 million.


NEVADA
5 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: McCain, but lead is slight
McCain - 49%
Obama - 46%
Jewish population: 70,000 of 2.4 million.


[All polls as of 24-25 September, data from Rasmussen]

Previous blogs:

Erasing Ahmadinejad from the map
What is truly frightening about Sarah Palin
Seven ways Israel could haunt the 2008 campaign
Why the Jewish Vote matters - a guide
Hurricane Mahmoud
What really scares us about Barack Obama
Ten Mideast traps for Barack Obama to avoid

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  1.   Bradley misses the main point 10:43  |  Afikoman 28/09/08
  2.   I got an email today on the subject: 10:57  |  S 28/09/08
  3.   Sarah Palin and fellow Jewish voters 11:06  |  Michael Peck 28/09/08
  4.   Why would Jews vote for Obama? 11:13  |  Zoe 28/09/08
  5.   Obama, better forget about Florida, that`s not your place.... 11:42  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/09/08
  6.   exactly so why would jews vote for obama 11:45  |  nobama 28/09/08
  7.   Palin vs. Obama 12:19  |  yehuda 28/09/08
  8.   Jews in Alaska recomend Palin 12:25  |  Jacob 28/09/08
  9.   true values 12:35  |  dovid goldstein 28/09/08
  10.   the mistaken Jacob 13:18  |  AsherZelig 28/09/08
  11.   Palin Problem 13:46  |  Rabbi Izzy Lahm 28/09/08
  12.   Community Reinvestment Act? 13:55  |  FOX 28/09/08
  13.   One more Tina Fey spoof and she`ll be lucky if she`s still 14:01  |  Aphemia 28/09/08
  14.   No. 15:21  |  Lisa 28/09/08
  15.   Quotes and Casinos. 15:41  |  Maureen Ann 28/09/08
  16.   Do the American Jews want to be blamed for handing the country... 15:52  |  ManintheMiddle 28/09/08
  17.   Cows aren`t Stripped before Making Hamburgers? 16:19  |  Joe McDonalds 28/09/08
  18.   deep seated racism 16:38  |  One of the people 28/09/08
  19.   Alcee Hastings? Impeached in 1989 for corruption and perjury. 16:43  |  Raymond in DC 28/09/08
  20.   According to the experts, Obama is best 16:53  |  Scott C. 28/09/08
  21.   Why Jews Should Vote for Obama 17:21  |  Hadassa 28/09/08
  22.   Will Palin win Jews 17:26  |  Steve Gure 28/09/08
  23.   Sara Palin is more dangerous to the US 17:29  |  Rabbi Izzy Lahm 28/09/08
  24.   Energy is Obama`s most-important pro-Israel position 17:30  |  David 28/09/08
  25.   Palin the Fundamentalist 18:02  |  marc 28/09/08
  26.   Swiss (Dino) The great politycal strategist 18:15  |  David Israel 28/09/08
  27.   Alcee Hastings:A self-admitted corrupt US Judge 18:18  |  Arie 28/09/08
  28.   Palin - "an unknow equation" 18:26  |  Arie 28/09/08
  29.   McPain Ticket (McCain + Pallin = McPain) 18:32  |  John 28/09/08
  30.   Burston sounds worried. Ha! 18:34  |  USALovesIsrael 28/09/08
  31.   Palin ought to win Jews over Obama 18:50  |  Doug MacLean 28/09/08
  32.   About S #2`s post 18:55  |  Afikoman 28/09/08
  33.   Starting Credentials..... 19:06  |  Persian Kitty 28/09/08
  34.   To S #2 -- Kitty`s Fear 19:22  |  Persian Kitty 28/09/08
  35.   11. No & 8- Jews in Alaska recommend Palin 19:24  |  Jan 28/09/08
  36.   #26 Arie 19:37  |  mike 28/09/08
  37.   Sort Of An Overview 19:39  |  Yosemite 28/09/08
  38.   #31 Persian Kitty Credentials 19:41  |  Not Quite 28/09/08
  39.   Unfortunately, Americans of Jewish Origin 19:50  |  ARTH 28/09/08
  40.   Jews wise up, vote Palin 20:12  |  howiej 28/09/08
  41.   Search for your own facts 20:20  |  howiej 28/09/08
  42.   To Not Quite #37 20:33  |  Persian Kitty 28/09/08
  43.   Micheal Peck # 3 and Heine 20:34  |  David 28/09/08
  44.   Obama defending civil rights? Oh, please! 20:38  |  Raymond in DC 28/09/08
  45.   #38 not qiuite..skelletons in the cupboard coming out on biden 20:49  |  israeli 28/09/08
  46.   #34 persian kitty is already burying maccain.. 20:58  |  israeli 28/09/08
  47.   #42 Persian Kitty 21:20  |  Not Quite 28/09/08
  48.   Palin 21:39  |  Brod 28/09/08
  49.   #45 Israeli 21:44  |  ballistic 28/09/08
  50.   To Not Quite #47 22:00  |  Persian Kitty 28/09/08
  51.   #45, israeli 22:11  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/09/08
  52.   To S (#2) 22:24  |  Morris Valentine 28/09/08
  53.   To Israeli 22:26  |  Persian Kitty 28/09/08
  54.   #2, S 22:29  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/09/08
  55.   #50 Persian Kitty 22:33  |  Not Quite 28/09/08
  56.   To the `frozen chosen` (Jacob in Alaska - #8) 22:35  |  Morris Valentine 28/09/08
  57.   #32 aficomen ...about S daughter:her british husband favours obam 22:37  |  israeli 28/09/08
  58.   Florida and fighting the last war 22:44  |  Bronxite10 28/09/08
  59.   To israeli (#45), CJK (#51) 22:48  |  Morris Valentine 28/09/08
  60.   Republican victory will ensure demise of "Jewish" state 22:48  |  Chanalau, Tova 28/09/08
  61. &n