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Kadima ballots bearing the names of the four leadership candidates (Tomer Appelbaum) Last update - 21:28 17/09/2008 ANALYSIS / New Kadima party chief to get cold dose of reality By Aluf Benn Tags: Livni, Kadima primary, Israel  From 10:01 Wednesday night, the differences between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz, the candidates for the leadership of Kadima, will mean nothing. Whoever wins the primary and succeeds in assembling a government will have to contend with a political reality represented by the international community, not simply party functionaries and clerks. The old ditty "Things you see from there aren't what you see from here" will again lodge itself in the public mind, as the victor joins the long line of prime ministers forced to renounce their old policies upon taking office. It happened to the great ones: to Begin and Rabin, to Bibi and Barak, Shamir and Sharon, and it will happen to the successor of Ehud Olmert. Advertisement Mofaz's electoral problem is his lack of international credit. Livni is known and welcomed in the international arena from her current post as foreign minister. George W. Bush is even familiar with her - he calls her "Zipi." Mofaz is known mainly from his strongman image in the media, and he will have to show much more political flexibility to be accepted in the gardens of world powers and Arab states. Let's imagine Prime Minister Mofaz being invited to the White House. Will he dare tell Bush that last year's Annapolis Conference between Israel and the Palestinians was a study in nonsense? That we must not speak of the "core issues" and instead return to the so-called freeze on the territories and a mere "economic peace?" That all the efforts made by Bush and Condoleezza Rice were in vain? Let's see him show such chutzpah in the Oval Office. More likely, his ticket to Washington will ride on a public vow to continue the talks Olmert held with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and on reminding the Americans that he was defense minister when the disengagement from the Gaza Strip first took shape. Livni will be allowed more leeway to show toughness on political issues, in light of her moderate image abroad and the series of talks she held in the past with former Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qureia. On the other hand, she will have to prove she is no gentle dove, but can lead the nation in times of war without appearing to be a puppet of Defense Minister Ehud Barak. Ever present is the risk of being dragged into a military adventure that looks good on paper but ends in catastrophe. Livni must remind herself daily of the disaster of the Second Lebanon War two summers ago, and to be wary of operational plans driven by public pressure. Mofaz, by contrast, can afford to be choosier when deciding which military operations to authorize. At 10:01 tonight, a political poker game also begins between the newly-crowned head of Kadima and the leadership of Shas. The cards on both sides of the table present problems. At first glance, Kadima must only sign a check to the religious party to ensure the formation of a coalition. But too quick a consent to the financial demands of Eli Yishai and company is liable to irritate Kadima's secular electorate, Livni's base. Shas seems to hold the key to forming an alternative government, but should it make unreasonable demands, it could see itself up against an antagonistic coalition of some 60 MKs with the Meretz faction leading the charge. Shas will then come to the elections from the opposition position, without any achievements to present its constituents. Yishai still remembers how Ariel Sharon ostracized him from his second government, and if he forgot, his cronies will surely remind him. Whichever candidate wins the Kadima primary will have to warm up to the position for several months before contending with Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud in the national elections. And the candidate will have to do so without sullying his or her image as incorruptible. Both candidates will have to answer the public's doubts about their respective qualifications. Livni will have to prove she is ripe for the responsibility of occupying the prime minister's seat, and Mofaz will have to prove he has ideas beyond the security arena for dealing with the political issues facing the country. Related articles: Peres warns Olmert: Attack on Iran could spark wide-scale war Mofaz ups attacks on Livni as Kadima primary vote nears ANALYSIS / Lebanon War diverted Olmert from goal to pull out of West Bank Bookmark to del.icio.us   On second thought Palin disinvited from protest against Iran after Hillary Clinton cancels appearance. Price of freedom Hamas official: For Shalit, Israel must release prisoners, reopen Gaza crossings.   1.   Israelis Have Become Shetyl Jews 03:49  |  Tod Zuckerman 17/09/08   2.   What headline should really be 04:55  |  Arie 17/09/08   3.   No Diff 05:12  |  Tom 17/09/08   4.   No One Wants A Reshuffling Of The Kadima Party 06:55  |  Livin In Rishon 17/09/08   5.   And Olmert lied again and is not going to leave as promised! 09:07  |  redmike 17/09/08   6.   Livni welome? I think not 09:40  |  Manny Goldstein 17/09/08   7.   Left national antherm is hate and let everybody hate to 10:38  |  rightie 17/09/08   8.   Anti-Israel British newspaper The Guardian leans towards Livni 10:40  |  Realist 17/09/08   9.   M.GOLDSTEIN As I do not have Putin`s phone number 10:46  |  PETER SM 17/09/08   10.   #5, redmike, he will not leave 10:52  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 17/09/08   11.   Well, Arie#1, clinging-onto-the-Golan..., no-matter-what... 11:18  |  Esther 17/09/08   12.   Democracy "Israeli style" and peace = (Almost) impossible 11:29  |  Swiss (Dino) 17/09/08   13.   The weak shtetyl Jew, dear, is the secret strength 12:53  |  Israeli citizen 17/09/08   14.   #1 Tod 13:27  |  EZ 17/09/08   15.   Noone else is welcome to be Prime Minister.... 14:01  |  Dreyfuss 17/09/08   16.   To EZ # 8 - Nut sure if Israel can do better today 14:49  |  Dagma 17/09/08   17.   #12 Dagma 16:01  |  EZ 17/09/08   18.   #8 Swiss 16:41  |  EZ 17/09/08   19.   Kadima is not what Israelis want. Let General Elections decide 16:45  |  Shepherd 17/09/08   20.   Kadima has succeeded so far 18:02  |  Mark Lincoln 17/09/08   21.   as irts going israel could end up with 3 premiers 18:23  |  v.hardman 17/09/08   22.   "Kadima" means "forward" 07:28  |  Fortuna Benmayor 20/09/08

Read & React Kadima divided after Livni victory, Mofaz exit Responses: 56 Sarah Palin dumped from Jewish rally against Iran in New York Responses: 193 Benjamin Weinthal: Ani-Zionist Jews widen pool of Israel's enemies Responses: 108 Hamas accuses Israel of back-pedaling in Shalit negotiations Responses: 53 Yossi Sarid: Economic crisis forces us to rethink 'American dream' Responses: 40 More Headlines 07:12 Abbas: Failure to reach peace will 'change parameters of debate' 00:18 Livni: Olmert must fulfill his promise to quit after primary 07:29 Obama campaign cries foul after Republicans block Iran divestment bill 02:01 Hamas accuses Israel of back-pedaling in Shalit negotiations 07:33 Meretz chief says Livni offers party a place in coalition 01:31 Sarah Palin blames 'Democrat partisans' for withdrawn invitation to anti-Iran rally 12:30 Jewish World / How we came to feed Tel Aviv's African refugees 03:17 Major powers end talks on Iran sanctions with no firm commitments 17:37 Iran's Ayatollah says 'Illogical' for Iranians to call Israelis friends 07:03 Kadima divided after Livni's victory, Mofaz exit 17:01 Israeli consulate in Boston stages first-ever fashion show 07:08 ANALYSIS / Livni's victory is a big crack in the glass ceiling 14:45 Seal, Warren Beatty and other celebrities attend Israel anniversary event in Hollywood 08:22 Ex-Beatles musician from Bat Yam can't afford McCartney ticket Previous Editions Select Day 19 sep 18 sep 17 sep 16 sep 15 sep 14 sep 12 sep 11 sep 10 sep 09 sep 08 sep 07 sep

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