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ANALYSIS / How will the U.S. economic crisis affect Israelis?
By TheMarker Staff
Tags: Economy, U.S., Israel

How will the Wall Street meltdown affect the Israeli man in the street? It is too early to say, according to Tel Aviv-based brokerage I.B.I.: It all depends on how it affects the U.S. economy and the American consumer.

The immediate question is how the enormous changes on Wall Street will affect risk premiums. If, as expected, borrowing costs go even higher, the credit crunch could become even worse.

As the ripples spread, the next variable is how the meltdown will impact on other markets - mainly the giant emerging markets of China and India, but also eastern Europe.
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America is a huge target market for Israeli exporters; thus another question is the extent to which Israeli investments and exports can shift to other markets, I.B.I.'s analysts pointed out.

In the short term, said I.B.I., the main effect on Israelis will be losses by the provident and mutual funds in which they have invested. But in the long run, if the Israeli economy is indeed affected, we are liable to see a recession. The depth and length of such a recession are impossible to predict, the brokerage added.

Of course, there is an upside, I.B.I. noted: The equity market is very cheap. Thus for long-term investors - emphasis on the long - this could be an opportune time to enter the market.


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