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Last update - 21:42 15/09/2008
Poll: Livni will beat Mofaz in a landslide to clinch Kadima leadership
By Yossi Verter and Mazal Mualem, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: primary, tzipi livni, kadima 

Two days before the Kadima party's leadership primary, a poll conducted by a Haaretz-Dialog and Channel 10 predicts a landslide victory for Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni over her main opponent Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.

According to the poll, in the first round, Livni is expected to win 47% of the vote and Mofaz 28%, while Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit and Public Security Minister Avi Dichter would each get 6%.

Despite Mofaz's confidence at a press conference on Sunday, where he predicted he would win with 43.7% of the vote, it appears he would have reason to worry even if there were a second round of voting. The poll - supervised by Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's Statistics Department - shows that even in a second-round vote Livni would beat Mofaz by a 17% margin, with 50% versus 33%.
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The poll was conducted Sunday among 1,808 registered Kadima voters who were asked if they plan to vote on Wednesday. Seventy percent of them replied "absolutely" and 24% answered "I think so." Only 3% of respondents said they did not plan to vote. The margin of error for each question was 2.4%.

Mofaz told reports on Sunday that he would form a government based on the existing coalition. "I have spoken with faction heads both within the coalition and outside it, and there is a common understanding to establish a coalition based on the current coalition," the transportation minister said. Mofaz added that he has even reached understandings with Shas head Eli Yishai over the return of the child allowances that have been cut in recent years.

Livni, meanwhile, expressed wariness over voter complacency in the wake of the flattering polls. At a concluding conference Livni led Sunday at the Tel Aviv Exhibition Grounds, she called on registered Kadima voters to get out the vote on Wednesday.

"Not voting is an irresponsible act," Livni told the crowd. "We can't afford it."

Wednesday's primaries, which mark the first in Kadima history, are expected to draw 74,000 voters to 144 voting booths at 93 different sites. Voting will begin at 10 A.M. and end around ten hours later.
Once all the votes have been counted, the chairman of the elections committee will sign off on the data, put all the voting material into a sealed envelope and lock it in the ballot box until it is brought to the Exhibition Grounds. There, the results will get final approval by the chairman of the central elections committee.

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