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Last update - 12:48 08/09/2008
Is Jerusalem really becoming ultra-Orthodox? The figures may surprise you
By Rinat Nahum-Halevy
Tags: Israel, Haredim, Jewish World 

As an old-time Jerusalemite, city council member Saar Netanel (Meretz) remembers when the city's northern areas, Ramat Eshkol and Maalot Dafna, were populated by "bohemians" - television people, writers such as Meir Shalev and Amos Oz, the newscaster David Witztum, Knesset members, judges - in short, the stars of the 1970s and '80s. "Now all that is mere romantic memories," he says.

They say Jerusalem is turning ultra-Orthodox - that the city is being "Haredized." Supporters of this theory point out that evidence of this process can be found in the rising strength of the ultra-Orthodox sector in the local government institutions, mainly since Uri Lupolianski took over as mayor of Jerusalem in 2003. People talk about the "invasion" of the ultra-Orthodox into neighborhoods that had been markedly secular in character until then.

But is there any concrete evidence that Jerusalem's real estate market is becoming Haredized, or is the phenomenon limited to certain areas? The answer turns out to be complicated. There is evidence of a moderate increase in demand by ultra-Orthodox families throughout the city, and a significant increase in demand by Haredi families in certain quarters of the capital.
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The real figures may come as a surprise. Many Jerusalem neighborhoods are indeed increasingly characterized by an ultra-Orthodox lifestyle. But a study of the demographic changes in the city shows that, in relation to Jerusalem's entire Jewish population, the proportion of ultra-Orthodox has increased quite modestly in recent years.

Jerusalem today has 740,000 residents, 480,000 of whom are Jewish. Dr. Maya Choshen of The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies says that according to the institute's estimates, in 1995 the ultra-Orthodox constituted 29% of the city's Jewish population while in 2000, the figure was 30%. Today it's 32%, or some 196,000 people.

These figures illustrate that the increase of Jerusalem's ultra-Orthodox population over the last 13 years was modest. By 2020, the proportion of Haredim out of the city's total Jewish population isn't likely to exceed 35%.

Certain neighborhoods have, on the other hand, undergone a rapid process of conversion, as it were. In his book, "A Tale of Love and Darkness," author Amoz Oz romantically describes how he would pass through the neighborhood of Kerem Avraham back in the 1950s: Back then the quarter housed ultra-Orthodox, observant Jews and secular Israelis. Today the area is glatt kosher ultra-Orthodox.

The same happened in Mekor Barukh, nearby the open-air market Mahane Yehuda. Over the years the secular residents of these two neighborhoods moved to the city's north, to Kiryat Hayovel and Ramot Alon.

Ramot Alon exemplifies the population change. Founded in 1974, the neighborhood's population was 70% secular. During the last 10 years, the Ramot Gimel quarter was populated by Haredim, Ramat Aleph also turned Haredi and later Ramot Daled was built to serve the same population. Today 75% of the entire neighborhood is ultra-Orthodox.

Ramat Eshkol constitutes another example of Haredization. In the 1970s the area was considered secular. During the last five years, many wealthy Haredim from the United States bought apartments here and today, more than 70% of the neighborhood's 9,000 residents are ultra-Orthodox.

Maalot Dafna, the neighborhood bordering Ramat Eshkol, is home to 4,600 residents. It, too, was founded in the 1970s and was considered nonreligious in nature. Today, Haredim comprise 80% of its residents.

The Haredization of Jerusalem is also evident in "traditional" - masorti - neighborhoods, most markedly so in Bayit V'Gan, which has 20,000 residents. Whereas once, 70% of its residents were observant, today 75% are outright ultra-Orthodox.

Demographic changes partly explain the process of Haredization in some of Jerusalem's neighborhoods, but further elucidation seems required. One explanation is that crowding in the ultra-Orthodox areas has diminished in recent years.

"Their consumer culture is changing," says geographer Amiram Gonen of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. The ultra-Orthodox wanted to improve their standard of living, explains the professor. They didn't want to live in tiny, crowded apartments anymore. As their level of income began to rise - partly because of the influx of wealthy immigrants and rising donations from overseas - their behavioral patterns started to change. "Today's Haredi isn't afraid to enter secular neighborhoods anymore," Gonen adds.

Gonen believes the process of Haredization isn't over yet. Wealthy Haredim have been buying homes in Ramot Alon, in a predominantly secular area. Potential for further Haredization exists in Neveh Yaakov, Katamon and Kiryat Hayovel, too, he says.

Another explanation for the Haredization of certain areas is the availability of alternative housing solutions for the departing population. New neighborhoods built in Jerusalem were peopled mainly by "expats" of the old areas that had turned religious, who were seeking to upgrade their living standards. Meanwhile, ultra-Orthodox families were happy to buy their small, old apartments in the old neighborhoods. The new areas now populated by the secular include Malkha, Holyland, and several new projects built in the old areas.

"If there hadn't been a void, they [the ultra-Orthodox] wouldn't be coming in," Gonen says. "The ultra-Orthodox are happy with an apartment left behind in a spacious housing complex. It creates a chain reaction: the entry of ultra-Orthodox causes the secular to leave, which opens the door for more ultra-Orthodox to move in."

The figures also belie another myth: that the secular are abandoning Jerusalem in droves, leaving the capital to the religious community. Yet the data shows that no small proportion of the people leaving Jerusalem are in fact Haredi.

The Haredim truly do face difficulties in the city. There's no future for them there, explains David Silbershlag, an ultra-Orthodox publicist and journalist. "They talk about negative immigration of the secular but everybody forgets that immigration has been negative among the ultra-Orthodox, too. A lot of them have moved to the satellite towns [around Jerusalem] such as Modi'in Illit, Beitan Illit, Elad and Beit Shemesh," Silbershlag says.

And because there aren't enough housing projects being built for the ultra-Orthodox community, some are even moving back to Tel Aviv. They're storming the Hadar neighborhood in Haifa, they're moving to Lod and will soon be moving to Ramle, too, Silbershlag adds.

The bottom line is that there is a demand for housing by the ultra-Orthodox throughout Jerusalem, and real growth in certain areas.

Let's look at the local Jerusalemite real estate market. A 4-room apartment in Neveh Yaakov may sell for NIS 950,000, which is NIS 150,000 more than in nearby Pisgat Ze'ev, which houses mainly the secular. The result is that ultra-Orthodox are "seeping" from their own areas to the lower-priced ones - which is raising prices there, too, including in Pisgat Ze'ev.

Three years ago, you could get a 4-room apartment in Pisgat Ze'ev for NIS 500,000. Today it will cost you double.

Ramot Eshkol used to be secular until wealthy ultra-Orthodox moved in. Four years ago you could find apartments there for $100,000. Today you had better start at $500,000.

Katamonim has also turned pricey. Only a year ago, a 3-room flat here cost $100,000; today it would go for $270,000.

The price of key-money (protected tenancy) housing has also risen sharply: A 2.5-room apartment in Romema went for $160,000. The market for key-money housing may be dead in the rest of Israel, but not in Jerusalem and mainly, not in the Haredi sector, says Oren Valero, a lawyer and a real estate expert.

Another element in Jerusalem is the entry of ultra-Orthodox builders into the market. Lev Leviev of Africa Israel is one of them. Another is Shaya Boymelgreen and a third is Eli Klein, but there are many more, and they're all building for the ultra-Orthodox sector. One example is the Shaul Towers, 96 apartments for the ultra-Orthodox; another 300 apartments are going up in Kiryat Moshe; 400 apartments are being constructed in Nof Zion; no less than 70 are being erected in Givat Ze'ev and a thousand are rising in Romema. An additional 200 units can be found in Kiryat Sharett. Also, the Shneller army camp is finally being evacuated from central Jerusalem and will be replaced by housing - 700 apartments for members of the Gur ultra-Orthodox community.

But not everybody agrees that the city will remain mixed. Maybe housing sales have slowed because of the high prices and the negative immigration of the ultra-Orthodox to satellite towns, says a Haredi entrepreneur who builds in Jerusalem. "But in two or three months, the ultra-Orthodox will realize that they have nowhere to go. Even if dozens of projects go up for the secular, the situation on the ground shows that they have no business to be here. The process won't be over until the last secular leaves."

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