Subscribe to Print Edition | Fri., September 05, 2008 Elul 5, 5768 | | Israel Time: 08:02 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 04:11 04/09/2008
Livni surging 20 points ahead of Mofaz in race for Kadima leadership
By Yossi Verter
Tags: Livni, Kadima, Israel, Mofaz

With less than two weeks to the Kadima primary, a new poll puts Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni 20 percentage points ahead of Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. The poll of party members, conducted by Haaretz and Channel 10 News on Tuesday, indicated 40 percent support for Livni and 20 percent for Mofaz, which means she could score an outright first-round victory for the Kadima leadership on September 17.

If Livni fails to achieve the 40 percent required to win the vote and she and Mofaz hold a second round, she is expected to win with 51 percent of the vote.

The poll, conducted by Dialog and supervised by Professor Camille Fuchs, also found that 28 percent of the voters have not decided yet whom to vote for. If even a few of them vote for Livni, she will win in the first round.
Advertisement
Livni's victory seems almost assured. Her advantage has grown considerably, while Mofaz has weakened. Although he is still seen as the more organized and experienced of the two, it is doubtful this is enough to close the 20 percent gap between them.

Avi Dichter and Meir Sheetrit, the other candidates, are lagging far behind, mustering an 11 percent of the vote together.

In a second election round between Livni and Mofaz, the difference between them remains 20 percent. All Mofaz can hope for is a rerun of the polls fiasco in the Labor primary between Peres and Pertz in November 2005. The polls predicted a victory for Peres but on election day his voters remained at home while Peretz' divisions transported his voters to the polls. Today, too, most of the functionaries and large Kadima faction heads support Mofaz, which could narrow the difference. But the mood is with Livni.

Livni's support in the Arab community is twice as big as Mofaz' - an 11 percent majority among the men and 44 percent among the women (compared to 14 percent who support Mofaz).

Mofaz' campaign seems to have stalled in recent weeks. He attacks Livni a lot, on guru Arthur Finkelstein's instructions, but cannot muster the media's sympathy. He has no allies who are capable of creating an effective media or public campaign for him and now the grass-roots activists also seen to be moving in Livni's direction.

Kadima activists say that Roni Bar-On and Tzachi Hanegbi, two of Livni's staunchest supporters, have managed to swing a number of important field activists to her camp. In addition, the negative reports alleging irregularities in Mofaz' canvassing and dubious appointments may be affecting Kadima's 72,000 voting members.

Dichter and Sheetrit, despite their sorry state in the polls, are each convinced the real vote will be a surprise.

The media flurry around Police Commander Uri Bar-Lev's dismissal certainly did not increase Dichter's chances. But the affair, which could have spelled a media disaster for him, appears to have little effect on his standing. His support dropped from 8 percent two weeks ago to 7 percent. However, a large percentage (43 percent) of the voters, who usually sympathize with him, believe he was wrong in firing Bar-Lev, compared to 17 percent who justify him.
Bookmark to del.icio.us  
 
Playing with fire
Sarkozy warns Iran it risks Israeli strike on nuke program.
Our own desert island
Israel tries to lure 'Big Brother' type U.S. reality TV series.
  1.   Back to those `bad old days`...... 09:14  |  Dolly 04/09/08
  2.   Anyone but Mofaz 11:11  |  Israel 04/09/08
 Read & React
ANALYSIS / France elbows U.S. aside in Syria negotiations
Responses: 36
Obama makes peace with Fox News while McCain shuns CNN
Responses: 48
Giuliani: Obama backtracked on undivided Jerusalem
Responses: 52
Biden: AIPAC doesn't speak for Israel, no matter what it insists
Responses: 93


More Headlines
07:12 Nasrallah: We still seek fallen guerillas' bodies
04:16 Senior reserve general: IDF desperately needs more training, funds
06:58 McCain takes swipe at Bush, pledges to recover Americans' trust
07:19 Kadima sources: Olmert undermining successor to stay in power for longer
03:02 ANALYSIS / Ramon's settler evacuation-compensation bill is just talk
01:25 Chabad envoy to Alaska: Palin staunch friend of Jews
07:26 Assad: We won't cut ties with Hezbollah, despite Israel talks
03:59 This Ramadan, Arab TV channels seek big ratings from a captive audience
04:44 Dichter: Officials who perpetrate leaks are akin to terrorists
04:02 Husband of innocent woman killed in botched gangland hit faces her alleged killers
04:44 Jewish group concerned Canadian election could take place on Sukkot
07:23 Blair: Situation in West Bank has not improved fast enough
02:10 Education Ministry to ban 'Bible Lite' study booklet
01:35 Sarkozy warns Iran it risks Israeli strike on nuke program
Previous Editions
Special Offers
Advertisement
Fattal Hotel Chain
Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel.
JMG your online solution
Jewish Singles Personal Ads
Find the love of your life on JDate.com
MBA in Israel in English
APPLY NOW! Limited spaces available
Israel's Premier Real Estate Website
www. israel-property.com
Hebrew Summer courses
From $39.95
ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel
Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th
Eldan Rent a Car
Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations
Junkyard
Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt
Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |
Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel
birthright Israel | Search engine marketing
Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved