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Last update - 17:00 08/09/2008

Why the Jewish Vote matters - a guide

By Bradley Burston

Tags: Burston, Obama, Jews, Mccain

Viewed from foreign shores, the impact of the Jewish vote on U.S. politics seems an anomaly. Of every 100 Americans, only two are Jews.

Yet Republican and Democratic strategists have made Jewish voters a primary target of their presidential campaign. The reason is clear. The Jewish vote can decide an election.

In fact, the battle for the Jewish vote has grown more intense than ever, as the demographics and voting patterns of the Jewish population have veered away from a once-monolithic pro-Democratic posture.

In recent years, studies have shown that of the some 4 million Jewish voters, around 60 percent are dedicated Democrats, and about 15 percent committed Republicans. Most importantly for campaign strategists, the remainder, roughly one Jewish voter in four, is a swing vote. Across the nation, a million swing voters, most of them concentrated in states with large numbers of electoral votes, can easily spell an invitation to an inaugural ball come January.

In the current campaign, the major parties have targeted seven key battleground states whose Jewish populations, while relatively small in number and percentage, could bring candidates crucial electoral votes in a close contest.

Here are the states, and why they made the list.

FLORIDA

27 electoral votes. Current leaning: McCain

Recent Polling:

[All figures, Zogby polls of the electorate at large, updated 22 Aug.]:

McCain - 43%
Obama - 40%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 11%

Jewish population: 650,000 of 18 million total.

Jews constitute some 3.7% of the population, but their concentration in south Florida can have critical importance.

The 2000 presidential contest went undecided for a month while Gore and Bush forces battled over election irregularities in Florida. When all other states had been tallied, Gore had 267 electoral votes, just three shy of the 270 needed for election, to Bush's 246.

In the end, of the nearly 6 million Florida ballots cast, Bush officially won the state by 537 ballots. This gave Bush the states 25 electoral votes and, with a single electoral vote over the 270 needed for victory, the White House.

Exit polls have shown that Bush, who took only 12 percent of the state's Jewish vote in 2000, won 20 percent in 2004. Democratic strategists, including National Jewish Democratic Council head Ira Forman, have voiced fears that Obama could fall far short of John Kerry's near 80 percent showing in Florida in 2004.

"If Obama loses 20 points off of Kerry from the Florida Jewish population, he gets 57% nationwide, and in Florida it's roughly 170,000 votes based on my estimates. Those are serious numbers," Forman told the New York Sun in May, adding that he expected the Obama campaign would make up the difference by November.

A McCain asset in Florida is GOP Governor Charlie Crist, who has proven very popular with Florida Jews.

Other key states, to be covered in detail in coming installments:

PENNSYLVANIA

21 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama

Obama - 46%
McCain - 37%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 3%
Not Sure/Other - 9%

Jewish population: 285,000 of 12 million.

OHIO

20 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Toss-up.

Obama - 41%
McCain - 36%
Barr - 8%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 13%

Jewish population: 140,000 of 11 million.

MICHIGAN

17 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama

Obama - 46%
McCain - 37%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 12%

Jewish population: 90,000 of 10 million.

VIRGINIA

13 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Toss-up.

Obama - 43%
McCain - 41%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 10%

Jewish population: 100,000 of 7.6 million.

COLORADO

9 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Too close to call.

Obama - 44%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 8%
Nader - 2%
Not Sure/Other - 8%

Jewish population: 80,000 of 4.7 million.

NEVADA

5 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Deadlock.

Obama - 39%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 10%
Nader - 3%
Not Sure/Other - 10%

Jewish population: 70,000 of 2.4 million.

Previous blogs:

Hurricane Mahmoud
What really scares us about Barack Obama
Ten Mideast traps for Barack Obama to avoid
The pleasure that Hezbollah takes in torture
Experiment: People's Peace Plan Number 1
Fear of calling a terrorist a terrorist
Palestinian terrorism as a natural act

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1.	"Anomaly" of Jewish voters importance	13:33	\|	Israeli citizen	03/09/08

2.	It will end up badly	13:51	\|	Natallie Durson	03/09/08

3.	WHO SAYS JEWS VOTES ARE IMPORTANT?	14:21	\|	indrajaya	03/09/08

4.	Clinton didn`t help Barak win in Israel? Really now!	15:02	\|	Shlomo	03/09/08

5.	Ohio has 11 million people, not 1	15:50	\|	myrta	03/09/08

6.	#2 - Natalie	16:20	\|	Deborah	03/09/08

7.	#3 - Indrajaya	16:36	\|	Deborah	03/09/08

8.	# 7, DEBORAH	17:23	\|	indrajaya	03/09/08

9.	# 3 indrajaya	19:07	\|	allang	03/09/08

10.	Bull!! The Jewish vote is irrelevant!	19:18	\|	Avram	03/09/08

11.	deborah 6	19:33	\|	potobac	03/09/08

12.	Bottom Line	19:49	\|	Choni Davidowitz	03/09/08

13.	Jewish vote reflects Democrats problems	20:47	\|	Zeek	03/09/08

14.	#8 - Indrajaya	21:04	\|	Deborah	03/09/08

15.	Jews languishing in a dark and ugly place	21:10	\|	Connie	03/09/08

16.	$	21:19	\|	Kurk	03/09/08

17.	Durson	22:02	\|	Jane	03/09/08

18.	#2-Natallie	23:27	\|	dani.a	03/09/08

19.	Israel and US politics	23:54	\|	US Taxpayer	03/09/08

20.	#3 Indrajaya--Apart from your comments on Israelis/Jews.I noticed	23:59	\|	KATHY	03/09/08

21.	#15 Jane on Natallie..It is a bit of sour grapes,and jealousy..	00:11	\|	KATHY	04/09/08

22.	#19 the myth continues apace about taxation	00:30	\|	vhardman	04/09/08

23.	# 20, KATHY	00:46	\|	indrajaya	04/09/08

24.	Sarah Palin, McCain`s Golda??	01:25	\|	Rafael Wischkin	04/09/08

25.	Jews a Small Minority	04:21	\|	Steven Grumman	04/09/08

26.	Republicans despise free press in `democratic` America.	04:26	\|	Maureen Ann	04/09/08

27.	#12 Choni Davidowitz Peace Agreement = Aliya ^	04:46	\|	Smadar	04/09/08

28.	Why My Vote Matters	09:23	\|	Yosemite	04/09/08

29.	To US taxpayer	10:54	\|	Israeli citizen	04/09/08

30.	Not an election, but a Selection	15:18	\|	Sheldon	04/09/08

31.	Israeli Citizen # 29 Pure BS. Israel does not protect America.	02:35	\|	American in NY	06/09/08

32.	Another Idea Bradley	18:03	\|	Yosemite	06/09/08

33.	Jewish vote won`t matter in Florida	21:59	\|	Bronxite10	06/09/08

34.	#6-Deborah	09:38	\|	Sam	07/09/08

35.	ALL Votes Matter	16:12	\|	C.A. Fulghum	07/09/08

36.	this article	08:06	\|	Urchin	08/09/08

37.	#36 - Urchin (continued)	20:48	\|	Deborah	08/09/08

38.	Deborah you ignore differences	01:02	\|	Truth	11/09/08

39.	re: indrajaya	12:23	\|	nate levi	13/09/08

40.	re: urchin	12:38	\|	nate levi	13/09/08

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