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Last update - 00:00 02/09/2008
Why the Jewish Vote matters - a guide
By Bradley Burston
Tags: Bradley Burston, Obama 

Click here for more from Bradley Burston

Viewed from foreign shores, the impact of the Jewish vote on U.S. politics seems an anomaly. Of every 100 Americans, only two are Jews.

Yet Republican and Democratic strategists have made Jewish voters a primary target of their presidential campaign. The reason is clear. The Jewish vote can decide an election.
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In fact, the battle for the Jewish vote has grown more intense than ever, as the demographics and voting patterns of the Jewish population have veered away from a once-monolithic pro-Democratic posture.

In recent years, studies have shown that of the some 4 million Jewish voters, around 60 percent are dedicated Democrats, and about 15 percent committed Republicans. Most importantly for campaign strategists, the remainder, roughly one Jewish voter in four, is a swing vote. Across the nation, a million swing voters, most of them concentrated in states with large numbers of electoral votes, can easily spell an invitation to an inaugural ball come January.

In the current campaign, the major parties have targeted seven key battleground states whose Jewish populations, while relatively small in number and percentage, could bring candidates crucial electoral votes in a close contest.

Here are the states, and why they made the list.

FLORIDA

27 electoral votes. Current leaning: McCain

Recent Polling:

[All figures, Zogby polls of the electorate at large, updated 22 Aug.]:

McCain - 43%
Obama - 40%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 11%

Jewish population: 650,000 of 18 million total.

Jews constitute some 3.7% of the population, but their concentration in south Florida can have critical importance.

The 2000 presidential contest went undecided for a month while Gore and Bush forces battled over election irregularities in Florida. When all other states had been tallied, Gore had 267 electoral votes, just three shy of the 270 needed for election, to Bush's 246.

In the end, of the nearly 6 million Florida ballots cast, Bush officially won the state by 537 ballots. This gave Bush the states 25 electoral votes and, with a single electoral vote over the 270 needed for victory, the White House.

Exit polls have shown that Bush, who took only 12 percent of the state's Jewish vote in 2000, won 20 percent in 2004. Democratic strategists, including National Jewish Democratic Council head Ira Forman, have voiced fears that Obama could fall far short of John Kerry's near 80 percent showing in Florida in 2004.

"If Obama loses 20 points off of Kerry from the Florida Jewish population, he gets 57% nationwide, and in Florida it's roughly 170,000 votes based on my estimates. Those are serious numbers," Forman told the New York Sun in May, adding that he expected the Obama campaign would make up the difference by November.

A McCain asset in Florida is GOP Governor Charlie Crist, who has proven very popular with Florida Jews.

Other key states, to be covered in detail in coming installments:

PENNSYLVANIA

21 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama

Obama - 46%
McCain - 37%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 3%
Not Sure/Other - 9%

Jewish population: 285,000 of 12 million.


OHIO

20 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Toss-up.


Obama - 41%
McCain - 36%
Barr - 8%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 13%

Jewish population: 140,000 of 11 million.


MICHIGAN

17 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Obama

Obama - 46%
McCain - 37%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 12%

Jewish population: 90,000 of 10 million.


VIRGINIA

13 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Toss-up.

Obama - 43%
McCain - 41%
Barr - 5%
Nader - 1%
Not Sure/Other - 10%

Jewish population: 100,000 of 7.6 million.


COLORADO

9 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Too close to call.

Obama - 44%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 8%
Nader - 2%
Not Sure/Other - 8%

Jewish population: 80,000 of 4.7 million.


NEVADA

5 Electoral Votes. Current leaning: Deadlock.

Obama - 39%
McCain - 38%
Barr - 10%
Nader - 3%
Not Sure/Other - 10%

Jewish population: 70,000 of 2.4 million.


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  1.   "Anomaly" of Jewish voters importance 13:33  |  Israeli citizen 03/09/08
  2.   It will end up badly 13:51  |  Natallie Durson 03/09/08
  3.   WHO SAYS JEWS VOTES ARE IMPORTANT? 14:21  |  indrajaya 03/09/08
  4.   Clinton didn`t help Barak win in Israel? Really now! 15:02  |  Shlomo 03/09/08
  5.   Ohio has 11 million people, not 1 15:50  |  myrta 03/09/08
  6.   #2 - Natalie 16:20  |  Deborah 03/09/08
  7.   #3 - Indrajaya 16:36  |  Deborah 03/09/08
  8.   # 7, DEBORAH 17:23  |  indrajaya 03/09/08
  9.   # 3 indrajaya 19:07  |  allang 03/09/08
  10.   Bull!! The Jewish vote is irrelevant! 19:18  |  Avram 03/09/08
  11.   deborah 6 19:33  |  potobac 03/09/08
  12.   Bottom Line 19:49  |  Choni Davidowitz 03/09/08
  13.   Jewish vote reflects Democrats problems 20:47  |  Zeek 03/09/08
  14.   #8 - Indrajaya 21:04  |  Deborah 03/09/08
  15.   Jews languishing in a dark and ugly place 21:10  |  Connie 03/09/08
  16.   $ 21:19  |  Kurk 03/09/08
  17.   Durson 22:02  |  Jane 03/09/08
  18.   #2-Natallie 23:27  |  dani.a 03/09/08
  19.   Israel and US politics 23:54  |  US Taxpayer 03/09/08
  20.   #3 Indrajaya--Apart from your comments on Israelis/Jews.I noticed 23:59  |  KATHY 03/09/08
  21.   #15 Jane on Natallie..It is a bit of sour grapes,and jealousy.. 00:11  |  KATHY 04/09/08
  22.   #19 the myth continues apace about taxation 00:30  |  vhardman 04/09/08
  23.   # 20, KATHY 00:46  |  indrajaya 04/09/08
  24.   Sarah Palin, McCain`s Golda?? 01:25  |  Rafael Wischkin 04/09/08
  25.   Jews a Small Minority 04:21  |  Steven Grumman 04/09/08
  26.   Republicans despise free press in `democratic` America. 04:26  |  Maureen Ann 04/09/08
  27.   #12 Choni Davidowitz Peace Agreement = Aliya ^ 04:46  |  Smadar 04/09/08
  28.   Why My Vote Matters 09:23  |  Yosemite 04/09/08
  29.   To US taxpayer 10:54  |  Israeli citizen 04/09/08
  30.   Not an election, but a Selection 15:18  |  Sheldon 04/09/08
  31.   Israeli Citizen # 29 Pure BS. Israel does not protect America. 02:35  |  American in NY 06/09/08
  32.   Another Idea Bradley 18:03  |  Yosemite 06/09/08
  33.   Jewish vote won`t matter in Florida 21:59  |  Bronxite10 06/09/08
  34.   #6-Deborah 09:38  |  Sam 07/09/08
  35.   ALL Votes Matter 16:12  |  C.A. Fulghum 07/09/08
  36.   this article 08:06  |  Urchin 08/09/08
  37.   #36 - Urchin (continued) 20:48  |  Deborah 08/09/08
  38.   Deborah you ignore differences 01:02  |  Truth 11/09/08
  39.   re: indrajaya 12:23  |  nate levi 13/09/08
  40.   re: urchin 12:38  |  nate levi 13/09/08
 Read & React
Obama: Time for Palestinians, Israel to resume peace talks
Responses: 50
Miri Eisin: Is only the Israeli narrative 'the truth' and all the others wrong?
Responses: 28
Bradley Burston: The Gaza War as reality television
Responses: 17
EU aid chief: Hamas 'enormously responsible' for Gaza war
Responses: 59
Summit on Holocaust: Gaza war legitimized equating Jews with Nazis
Responses: 48


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