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Last update - 14:43 28/08/2008 Israel: Egypt must press Hamas to ease stance on Shalit deal By Amos Harel Tags: Gilad Shalit, Israel, Hamas  The third birthday of Gilad Shalit in Hamas captivity does not bode well. What is publicly known so far - in negotiations of this sort there is always a chance that a deal is being reached away from the media - is that there is no break in the talks with Hamas. Senior Israeli officials are of the opinion that Hamas has toughened its position, and that only energetic intervention on the part of the Egyptian mediators may change the situation for the better. The way the Israeli media tells it, Hamas is demanding the release of 450 Palestinians, many of them killers. The Arab media talks of 1,000 prisoners. The additional 550 prisoners, most of them considered "lightweight" compared with the first batch, are expected to be released at a later stage, indirectly linking their release to the deal over Shalit. It is therefore no surprise that Israel prefers to note the smaller figure. The formula of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit is a hard one to swallow. But it turns out that this is not all. In recent weeks there is surprising talk by the Palestinians on a demand for 1,300 prisoners - apparently a group that includes women, youths and Hamas parliamentarians. It may be that the tougher stance - which may not necessarily be the Hamas official position - stems from the implications of the prisoner exchange with Hezbollah. The celebrations in Beirut may have increased the Hamas appetite, a consequence that the heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet warned about. Advertisement The difficulty in knowing precisely what Hamas wants is one of the characteristics of the negotiations. In the triangle of power between the Hamas politburo in Damascus (Khaled Meshal), the political leadership in the Strip (Ismail Haniyeh), and the military wing (Ahmed Ja'abari), one fact is clear: Haniyeh is weak. Nonetheless, Israel is still unable to tell who will set the conditions for the deal on the Palestinian side: Meshal or Ja'abari and his subservients, who actually hold Shalit. To this is added another obstacle: in dealing with Hezbollah, Israel benefited from the good services of a German mediator working on behalf of the United Nations. But Egypt, which is mediating between Israel and Hamas, is in no way the UN. It is a central player in the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, with interests of its own regarding the nature of the deal that will be reached. These are all facts that were known throughout the period of Shalit's captivity. Nonetheless the negotiations were conducted slowly and with many breaks. According to the Shalit family, no progress has been achieved in nearly a year. On the face of it, the circumstances in the summer of 2008 that would enable a deal are better. For more than two months the cease-fire in the Gaza Strip is holding, and senior Israeli officials, including the defense minister and the chief of staff, have openly talked about the need to release killers in exchange for the abducted soldier. On the Israeli side there are also reasons for the lack of progress. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had to work very hard to gain support for the deal with Hezbollah. In his current state, and the much higher price that is being asked for Shalit, it is doubtful whether Olmert will be able to complete the deal. His expected resignation is also expected to affect the conduct of the negotiations. Israel's negotiator Ofer Dekel, who was appointed by Olmert, may not stay on after the prime minister steps down. The standstill in the negotiations is contributing to tension between Cairo and Gaza, and Hamas has declared that it would like a more fair interlocutor to replace Egypt's role. In its talks with Israel, Egypt also expects Israeli flexibility, especially in approving names in the list of prisoners presented by Hamas. So far Israel approved 70 names. Cabinet members have said that there is room for flexibility, and it is clear to all of them that this time they will have to release prisoners with "blood on their hands." But which terrorists will the Israeli public be willing to see freed? Meanwhile, sources in the cabinet and the defense establishment insist that the answer lies in Egypt's willingness to pressure Hamas to step back from its extremist negotiating positions. In the background there is always the military option for Shalit's release. But to date the defense establishment has not been able to draw up a plan that combines precise intelligence with a raid that will not endanger Shalit or the commandos. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Three years in captivity Aviva Shalit accuses politicians of being too busy with their own affairs to free her son. Hezbollah in Venezuela Western gov'ts fear the group is establishing cells in the South American country.   1.   Softening stances... 11:45  |  Esther 28/08/08   2.   Esther: wrong and amoral 12:36  |  Ilan 28/08/08   3.   Israel not prepared to do everything 13:09  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/08/08   4.   hamas bosses life insurance 13:24  |  Dr D 28/08/08   5.   Get it done 16:01  |  Dave Duncan 28/08/08   6.   Egypt needs the PR, spotlight, promotions and center of attention 16:13  |  jewish doctor 28/08/08   7.   Releasing murderers is immoral and doesn`t work 16:21  |  Ilan 28/08/08   8.   Softening Stance 16:31  |  henary 28/08/08   9.   Chris Linthwaite.....do you suggest the same thing to 17:35  |  Lynn 28/08/08   10.   #8 henary....legitimate right? 17:41  |  Lynn 28/08/08   11.   Er...why should Egypt? 18:36  |  Clickfool 28/08/08   12.   #9 Lynn 18:42  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/08/08   13.   Egypt and Hamas. 20:09  |  Stephen 28/08/08   14.   Re Ilan #2 00:08  |  Esther 29/08/08   15.   Shalit is on hold for Mubarak`s 11 point plan... 00:20  |  BBSNews 29/08/08   16.   lo siento 00:40  |  Di 29/08/08   17.   Time for an ultimatum 04:19  |  Free Gilad Shalit 29/08/08   18.   Clickfool forgets 04:35  |  Free Gilad Shalit 29/08/08

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