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Last update - 22:07 21/08/2008 The calamity is already here By Aluf Benn Tags: Ariel Sharon, Kadima When former prime minister Ariel Sharon dismantled the Likud and founded Kadima, it seemed a lethal blow to the political camp opposing the division of the country. The Likud was badly beaten at the polls, and the idea it propounded seemed obsolete and irrelevant after the disengagement from the Gaza Strip. The party that championed territorial compromise had won a resounding victory, the media humiliated the Likud Central Committee and the "rebels" who had irritated Sharon were defeated. Three years later, the political reality looks like a clear manifestation of the law of unintended results. Sharon's dramatic move accomplished the opposite of what it aimed to achieve: The Likud is alive, recovering and leading in the opinion polls, and the camp of compromise is torn by a life-and-death struggle between Labor and Kadima. The mutual bashing is understandable: Kadima and Labor are vying for the same electorate. Their messages are identical and their coalition partnership is natural. The disputes that occasionally surface, such as at the budget debate this week, stem from political needs and personal rivalry. Kadima is living in peace with Amir Peretz, who led Labor in the last elections, and rests on his "social" image, the man from Sderot and trade-union leader. Peretz wanted to bring voters from the struggling towns in the periphery to Labor, and rebuild it as a socialist party. He knowingly gave up the established urban voters, who switched to Kadima. Labor's chairman, Ehud Barak, however, is trying to renew the party's connection with its traditional electorate in the established neighborhoods and with the business community that currently supports Kadima's Tzipi Livni. Barak has no problem with Shaul Mofaz, who is appealing to the same circles that supported Peretz - workers' committees and mayors - while leaving Barak with north Tel Aviv, Ramat Hasharon and Ra'anana. Advertisement Barak and Livni realize that if she wins Kadima's upcoming primary, only one of them will face off against Netanyahu in the coming national elections. There will be no more celebrations like in 2006, when Labor and Kadima divided the political center among themselves and the rightwing parties were kicked to the sidelines. Hence, these two are busy annihilating one another. Barak presents Kadima as a party of deserters, as a camp of political refugees who will disappear like the short-lived Dash and Shinui, which also nibbled at Labor's voter base. Livni views Labor as a lifeless has-been. Barak boasts about his experience, presenting Livni as unripe. Livni says the country's experience with Barak was terrible, and she represents a refreshing newness. Only one factor has been forgotten in this confrontation: the political idea that Labor and Kadima represent, which is based on a willingness to share this land with the Palestinians. The current government has maintained the status quo in the territories, apart from accelerated construction in the settlement blocs. The window of opportunity for political change, in which the right was battered and bruised, was lost along with the unnecessary Second Lebanon War, but Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government renewed the talks on a final-status arrangement with the Palestinians and talks with the Syrians, and presented compromise positions that gained international support. Olmert is leaving the peace process with a comfortable foundation for the next government. That being the case, Kadima and Labor must unite around their joint message and battle for public opinion and votes against the Likud's positions, which oppose any compromise or arrangement. But in political life, the idea and the path are only a backdrop to the campaign for leadership and respect. No one is volunteering to be a rival's second fiddle. The solution proposed by the political advisers is that the public decides: Labor and Kadima will run separately in the elections and will unite afterward. This way, say the opinion polls, they will garner more votes than if they ran on a joint list. The leader of the party that gets the most votes will be the candidate for prime minister, and they will save themselves the contest. That sounds all fine and good for the politicians, but will not pass the reality test. If the parties unite the morning after the elections, it will justifiably look like a dirty trick designed to influence the election results, a move to bypass the will of the people and keep the Likud in the opposition. And if Netanyahu wins, he will easily stymie his opponents' unity moves. He will just hand out senior cabinet portfolios. In the 1960s, Yitzhak Ben-Aharon spearheaded the combining of leftist parties with his call for the "courage to change before the calamity." This time, the calamity is already here. If they do not come to their senses and unite now, in the next elections Livni and Barak will be handing the government to Netanyahu, who is currently holding his peace and enjoying their squabble. Still, history's lesson must not be forgotten: The Alignment of the left gave the parties only a few more years in power before they lost to the combined opposition of the right. The Likud's current rapid recovery shows that nothing in politics is final, and that for every action, there is an opposite reaction. It is all a matter of timing and circumstance; what a pity that time and opportunities are lost along the way. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Tears of joy Shahar Zubari's bronze medal was Israel's first of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. 'Germ of corruption' Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeats his prediction that Israel will be wiped off the map.   1.   Aluf Benn - again? 23:56  |  zeev 21/08/08   2.   The real Nakba 01:55  |  Frank 22/08/08   3.   Kadima & Labor hAVE Already Lost The Election 02:02  |  Shepherd 22/08/08   4.   Why even run Kadima & Labor will lose to Likud 05:08  |  Livin in Rishon 22/08/08   5.   Aluf Benn - again? 08:49  |  zeev 22/08/08

Read & React State orders West Bank fence rerouted in favor of Palestinians Responses: 34 Israel fears Syria trying to spoil Moscow-Jerusalem ties Responses: 9 Livni: World pressure on Israel, PA could spark third intifada Responses: 17 Shalom Dichter: Give Israeli Arabs the state funding they deserve Send response Karim Sadjadpour: Iran doesn't want to bomb Israel, just vote it out of existence Send response More Headlines 10:08 Israel fears Syria trying to spoil Moscow-Jerusalem ties 07:24 Livni: World pressure on Israel, PA could spark third intifada 07:27 Diplomatic effort on Iran nukes jeopardized by U.S.-Russia crisis 07:44 Police to question Olmert Friday for sixth time in graft probe 07:46 ANALYSIS / Fence relocation is acknowledgment that route is politically motivated 08:56 New Israeli film follows life of Holocaust refugees - in Yiddish 07:38 Study: Babies born just after Six-Day War more likely to have schizophrenia 10:01 Lebanon endorses diplomatic ties with Syria for first time since 1940 02:45 Barak: I'm not worried about being removed before elections 02:46 Prosecution to seek immunity for Talansky in U.S. 08:00 Activists sail from Cyprus on Friday in bid to bust Gaza siege 00:26 Israeli tennis star Shahar Peer leads master class for N.Y. children 05:10 Not even mock summit could solve Mideast conflict 00:10 IN PICTURES / Olympians display their body art 02:09 Israeli terror victims sue Chinese bank for funding Hamas, Islamic Jihad 07:42 Top T.V. presenter's life threatened, possibly by 'psychic' interviewee Previous Editions Select Day 21 aug 20 aug 19 aug 18 aug 17 aug 15 aug 14 aug 13 aug 12 aug 11 aug 10 aug 08 aug

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