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Last update - 01:31 19/08/2008
Caution: A new reality
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: Iran, U.S., Israel

Last week, Haaretz ran an article by Aluf Benn about the United States warning Israel not to pull any surprises and attack Iran without informing the Americans ahead of time. Israel's response was snooty and defiant: "Israel reserves the right to take whatever action it deems necessary if other efforts to halt the Iranian nuclear program fail."

The ink was not yet dry on Israel's macho reply before Russia invaded Georgia, spewing anti-Western rhetoric and threats that it would also attack Poland if the United States carried out its plan to deploy missiles in former Soviet bloc countries refusing to bow to Moscow's authority.

There is a lesson for Israel in all this: If Israel is dragged into a war, God forbid, it is liable to find itself very much alone. Israel cannot rely on the automatic involvement of America, which did not lift a finger to stop the brutal Russian offensive. President George W. Bush, in no rush to give up his summer vacation, made do with sending Condoleezza Rice to Georgia on a mission that was ultimately a condolence visit.
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The summer of 2008 has brought Israel face to face with a new reality: Russia is back to its old Cold War tricks. No one knows how the current conflict will end, but even if solutions are found and agreements are signed, Russia has made it crystal clear that it is back on the map - whether the issue is oil or strategic conflicts around the globe, including in our neck of the woods. I wouldn't be so sure Russia is overjoyed by Iran's nuclear aspirations - the number one danger now facing Israel - but it hasn't said a bad word about Iran yet.

In this new reality, where everything is up in the air, Israel really needs to walk on tiptoe - all the more so with a government on its way out that must do its utmost not to drag the country into actions liable to bring down the wrath of the world. Above all, we should not be springing surprises on America, or making trouble for a global superpower that is our sole friend and ally. Getting America into hot water is liable to cost us dearly. Israel needs to realize that even a superpower is bound by constraints when it comes to military action against a sovereign country.

Pessimists in this country are worried that the United States is going back to the isolationist policy it embraced when the Nazis were invading European countries at the start of World War II. That concern is certainly valid, even though America has a special bond with Israel, on which it will not easily turn its back.

At the same time, one senses fatigue, even in the Bush administration, with being mired in a kind of Vietnam II in the Middle East. In the media and in U.S. public opinion, one can read between the lines how sick and tired the country is of watching one administration after another try and fail to resolve the conflict in this region.

After all Bill Clinton invested in accords with the Palestinians and Syria, he will be remembered more for his cigar games with Monica Lewinsky under his desk in the White House than for his efforts to broker peace. Bush Senior tangled with Saddam Hussein. He liberated Kuwait but left Saddam alive, sowing the seeds of the current war in Iraq with its tens of thousands of dead and wounded. The Twin Towers, the worst terrorist attack in American history, fell into the lap of Bush Junior, who declared war on the "axis of evil."

But with all his power, all his military expeditions, all the billions paid out in bribes, he has not managed to capture Osama bin Laden - just one little man. Bush tackled the Israeli-Palestinian peace process with great derring-do, but his insistence on democracy and holding elections brought Hamas to power.

The president who succeeds Bush has two options: He can keep fighting the axis of evil, or he can focus on the serious problems that now face America - the colossal credit crisis, the mortgage crisis, the public's mistrust of the economy and the rising cost of gas. To that, he can add a new problem: a possible resumption of the Cold War.

Barack Obama, whose motto is "yes to change," may be less friendly toward Israel, but no one can swear that John McCain, with all the promises to the Jews he is handing out today, will still have Israel's interests at heart once he is elected. The two candidates may look back at the fate of their predecessors and conclude that America's relationship with Israel needs to be more demanding and less coddling in view of what is happening in the world.

The new reality also requires Israel to exercise greater caution, and above all, to stop being so cocksure that America will stand by us, come what may.
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  1.   The USA leaned towards the Arabs till after Israel won in 1967 11:48  |  PETER SM 19/08/08
  2.   Israel cant rely on anybody but there is no comparison with Georg 12:27  |  zionist forver 19/08/08
  3.   #1 petersm living on past glory 12:44  |  Labhras 19/08/08
  4.   Uncle Sam 13:01  |  Sabra 19/08/08
  5.   Marcus can find a "locus of evil" called a "new cold war" but.,.. 13:05  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 19/08/08
  6.   bye bye israel 13:34  |  David king 19/08/08
  7.   Paddy Lahabras,your Ireland has always been sitting on the fence 13:38  |  Absolute Sweden 19/08/08
  8.   marcus is dead right 13:53  |  ravi 19/08/08
  9.   Best solution - nuke iran`s nuke facilities NOW 13:53  |  Yehuda 19/08/08
  10.   "KING" Your brothers have been trying for centuries 14:06  |  PETER SM 19/08/08
  11.   Yehuda 14:13  |  David King 19/08/08
  12.   Nuke the whole world to # 9 14:16  |  Marwan 19/08/08
  13.   #1 Peter SM: Join the rest of us in 2008 stop living in the past 14:27  |  Tupac 19/08/08
  14.   Zionist Forver: Israel couldn`t destroy Hezbollah but you think 14:34  |  Tupac 19/08/08
  15.   #7 Absolute BSweden more history 14:49  |  Labhras 19/08/08
  16.   mr. marcus is right 15:22  |  saul a. readner 19/08/08
  17.   This reality is nothing new. America wants to back a winner. 15:26  |  Chaim 19/08/08
  18.   peter sm / her majesty labhras 15:29  |  saul a. readner 19/08/08
  19.   # 9 Yehuda 16:26  |  Harald 19/08/08
  20.   #6 david king 16:35  |  larry from delaware 19/08/08
  21.   Tupac 16:50  |  Alan Weiland 19/08/08
  22.   New Reality 17:04  |  Steve Gure 19/08/08
  23.   When Christ will come we will have a peace of the brave 17:04  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/08/08
  24.   Chaim, it`s not "appeasement" - it`s the law... 17:29  |  BBSNews 19/08/08
  25.   Aliya is the Problem 17:41  |  Bernie 19/08/08
  26.   Even without the USA, Israel is not "alone". 18:11  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/08/08
  27.   knee jerk support 18:21  |  goyboy 19/08/08
  28.   U.S. support for Israel not certain 18:39  |  Mark 19/08/08
  29.   The END OF AMERICAN HEGEMONY 19:06  |  George 19/08/08
  30.   bbsnews 19:13  |  scallywag 19/08/08
  31.   Multi-Level Flawed Analysis 19:24  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/08/08
  32.   US Suppt. for Israel Strong as Ever; Pal & Hez Terror Ensure It 19:24  |  JP 19/08/08
  33.   Multi-Level Flawed Analysis - 2 19:45  |  Mark of Lewiston 19/08/08
  34.   Yoel Marcus and Carolin Glick 20:03  |  Connie 19/08/08
  35.   who cares about the jews 20:37  |  james 19/08/08
  36.   Mark of Lewiston 21:08  |  Mark B. 19/08/08
  37.   Israel leaders rely on all except the Almighty 21:21  |  nuchem 19/08/08
  38.   Who cares about the Jews? James does. 21:21  |  JP 19/08/08
  39.   Look at Georgia Connie? Yes, indeed. 21:39  |  BBSNews 19/08/08
  40.   TUPAC Re # 1 23:11  |  PETER SM 19/08/08
  41.   TUPAC where did pro Arab tilt get you pre 1967? 00:13  |  PETER SM 20/08/08
  42.   # 38 petersm suits the USA really what about ending illegal 00:13  |  Labhras 20/08/08
  43.   # 38 petersm suits the USA really what about ending illegal 00:14  |  Labhras 20/08/08
  44.   GEORGIA ON MY MIND 00:22  |  DENNIS MIV 20/08/08
  45.   Mark of Lewiston represents the emerging american mentality 00:39  |  Voice of Reason 20/08/08
  46.   #2 Zionist forever 01:25  |  ballistic 20/08/08
  47.   #4 Sabra, really, get a grip. 01:27  |  ballistic 20/08/08
  48.   #9 Yehuda 01:31  |  ballistic 20/08/08
  49.   #10 Peter SM 01:35  |  ballistic 20/08/08
  50.   Israel would not be on anyones land if they were never attacked 01:46  |  Michael Dutko 20/08/08
  51.   Look at Georgia Connie? Yes, indeed. - 2nd try 02:35  |  BBSNews 20/08/08
  52.   Support of Israel 02:44  |  Chopper 20/08/08
  53.   Same old reality, actually ... 02:44  |  Morris Valentine 20/08/08
  54.   "in our hands" 04:11  |  Mark 20/08/08
  55.   Mark of Lewiston (Post No. 33) 04:44  |  Johnny Weintraub 20/08/08
  56.   Zionist forever # 2 America does not owe you anything 05:08  |  American in NY 20/08/08
  57.   #24 BBS. Is there a single truthful sentence in this post? 06:05  |  Chaim 20/08/08
  58.   American support for Israel 06:55  |  Otto Rand 20/08/08
  59.   To Chaim 06:57  |  Otto Rand 20/08/08
  60.   Alone for sure 07:07  |  Dani 20/08/08
  61.   To Chaim 07:07  |  Otto Rand 20/08/08
  62.   For once and for all Chaim, prove your claim by the law... 07:40  |  BBSNews 20/08/08
  63.   america will throw israel under the bus 07:41  |  bonni 20/08/08
  64.   Caution: A new reality 08:02  |  Rob L 20/08/08
  65.   49 Johnny Weintraub 08:04  |  Mark of Lewiston 20/08/08
  66.   54, Otto, Chaim suffers from the sin of greed ... 08:32  |  Dutch 20/08/08
  67.   #51, Otto Rand 08:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 20/08/08
  68.   Charlotte 10:45  |  Some guy in Oregon 20/08/08
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