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Last update - 09:31 18/08/2008 Iran and Syria, in the role of Russia By Itamar Rabinovitch Tags: Iran, Georgia, Russia, Syria Now that the fighting in Georgia has died down, policy shapers and pundits in the West are free to analyze the maneuvers and results, and draw lessons. The picture that emerges is a dismal one. Vladimir Putin's Russia exercised brutal force with the object of bringing a rebellious neighbor to its knees. The United States, which encouraged Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to defy Moscow, did not give him any real support. Former Soviet republics and satellites will now think twice before confronting Russia, or will be tempted to seek shelter beneath the cover of the U.S., NATO or the European Union. Oil is now much less likely to reach the Caspian Sea without Russia's involvement. The Georgian crisis will have specific repercussions on the Middle East. There is less of a chance that the United States and Russia will be cooperating to stop Iran's nuclear program. There is a greater chance that Russia will wage a more ambitious and aggressive policy, including selling advanced weapons systems to Iran and Syria. There will also be a host of indirect repercussions. In this context, there is a striking similarity between the Russian move in the Caucasus, and Iran and Syria's move in Lebanon. On May 7, an armed struggle broke out between Hezbollah and the so-called March 14 coalition, led by Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. The crisis was prompted by Siniora's refusal to put up with Hezbollah having its own nationwide communication network, another blatant blow to the Lebanese government's sovereignty. Hezbollah beat its rivals in the violent conflict, but refrained from extracting a military achievement, opting instead for political gains. Advertisement On May 23 a political compromise was reached in Doha, Qatar, enabling a new government led by Siniora, and letting the elected president, General Michel Suleiman, enter his post. In addition, Syria agreed, with French mediation, to establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon, thereby obliquely recognizing it neighbor's independence and sovereignty. That understanding paved the way for Bashar Assad's invitation to the July 13 conference of the new Union for the Mediterranean, as an honored guest of France. However, the full significance of the Doha compromise soon became clear. When Hezbollah threw a homecoming party for Samir Kuntar, the president and prime minister took part (the latter, at least, seemed to be under duress), and thus were seen as accepting Hezbollah's hegemony and role as a semi-state institution, and as accepting Kuntar and his murderous acts as a heroic Lebanese operation. More importantly, the new government's guidelines and President Suleiman's speeches gave legitimacy to Hezbollah's ongoing battle for the Shaba Farms. Hezbollah was therein given a standing equivalent to the Lebanese Army's, and a rationale for continuing its violence against Israel - not as a terror organization, but as an arm of the Lebanese state. Hezbollah and its patrons have settled for these accomplishments for now, and have chosen not to use their military victory as a springboard for a complete takeover of the Lebanese state. The similarity between this chain of events and the crisis in Georgia is striking: Iran and Syria parallel Russia, Siniora and Saakashvili are the pro-Western leaders, Hezbollah resembles the separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, France is the frenetic Western mediator, and above all - the Bush administration, encouraging Saakashvili and Siniora as supporters of democracy. Both leaders tried to stem the tide, wound up confronting a superior force, and discovered that the waning Bush administration was of no use. Israel continues to monitor the crisis in the Caucasus, but has a far greater, more immediate interest in how things play out in Lebanon. So far, it has been a nearly passive spectator. The Israeli government, approaching the end of its term, has learned from the 1982 attempt to shape Lebanese politics and the baggage left by the Second Lebanon War in 2006. For Israel, the developments in Lebanon are part of a complex strategic, political picture - Iran's aspiration to regional hegemony and nuclear weapons; the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis; the negotiations with Syria, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; the Bush administration's decision to refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and its pressure on Israel to wait for diplomacy - all while the Israeli government and the Bush administration are approaching their end, with their potential heirs mired in elections and inheritance battles. This interim period is expected to end in early 2009. That is when the new U.S. administration and the Israeli government will have to formulate both an overall strategy and specific solutions to the above issues. In view of the dilemmas Hezbollah and its patrons are posing in Lebanon, Israel will have to choose between a political response (from an Israeli standpoint, an agreement with Syria; from an American standpoint, dialogue with Syria and possibly Iran), and preparing to meet more serious challenges than the ones we faced in the summer of 2006. The writer served as Israeli ambassador to the United States. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Tears of joy Shahar Zubari's bronze medal was Israel's first of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. 'Germ of corruption' Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeats his prediction that Israel will be wiped off the map.   1.   Russia should be banned from the Olympics now and for 20 years 09:52  |  Born In The USA 18/08/08   2.   #1 Born in the USA. I can`t stop laughing!!!! 10:29  |  Maureen Ann 18/08/08   3.   Russia did not make a move, US/Israeli Supported Georgians Did 11:32  |  Lev Bronstien 18/08/08   4.   Punkt fakeht 11:34  |  Kass Sam 18/08/08   5.   Russia had more business in Georgia than America has in Iraq 11:35  |  Natallie Durson 18/08/08   6.   # 1 Born in the USA 12:17  |  maoriboy 18/08/08   7.   What? 14:07  |  Axel 18/08/08   8.   Please don`t do that 14:22  |  Edith 18/08/08   9.   Iran and Syria will go away once Saudi Plan is accepted 14:45  |  Ivar 18/08/08   10.   It hurts to loose, Born in the USA, isn?t it? 15:25  |  Ossetian 18/08/08   11.   It hurts to loose, born in the US? 15:46  |  Ossetian 18/08/08   12.   Haaretz: background info needed on Georgia`s attack 16:40  |  AliciaYasmeen 18/08/08   13.   WSJ did not find 2,000 dead bodies 16:50  |  Anonymous 18/08/08   14.   Russia should be made receive all her transplanted people 16:57  |  AliciaYasmeen 18/08/08   15.   So, so ... 17:22  |  Edith 18/08/08   16.   PS.: Putin`s mother, a "tranplant" to Georgia? 17:27  |  AliciaYasmeen 18/08/08   17.   #1 Borne in the USA 17:39  |  max 18/08/08   18.   #8 Ossetian 17:43  |  General Patton 18/08/08   19.   Will dialogue with Iran work? 17:57  |  Anonymous 18/08/08   20.   The of American Influence 18:11  |  US GUY 18/08/08   21.   AliciaYasmeen - If you are right and she.. 19:24  |  Historian 18/08/08   22.   The missing link 19:40  |  Michael N 18/08/08   23.   to buttress post no. 2 read the last sentences 20:00  |  Jew- and Bookburner 18/08/08   24.   Mac-Putin`s lunch menu 20:12  |  allang 18/08/08   25.   More correctly, Iran is a newer,smaller Soviet Union 21:16  |  Voice of Reason 18/08/08   26.   # 2 M.ann 22:11  |  THE TEACHER/INSTRUCT 18/08/08   27.   Voice of Reason 00:33  |  Difference 19/08/08   28.   Rusia and..... international situation .... 00:48  |  Maria Pajonk 19/08/08   29.   No but Israel is becoming the pacifist of the world 01:17  |  Dennie 19/08/08   30.   Russia isn`t Europe, Mr. Rabinovich. 01:56  |  Fortuna Benmayor 19/08/08   31.   Voice of Reason 02:11  |  Mark B. 19/08/08   32.   #20 US GUY, America became selfish and irresponsible under Bush 02:35  |  Mark B. 19/08/08   33.   Natallie, you are right I am totally on the Russian side 02:58  |  Yakov Sullivan 19/08/08   34.   Natallie you are right America is a criminal state 03:01  |  Yaakov Sullivan 19/08/08   35.   #1, BORN IN THE U.S.A, hypocrite 03:38  |  VIPER 19/08/08   36.   Is Russia becoming the Iran of Europe? 04:45  |  Colin Wright 19/08/08   37.   #27, Difference, discuss that with an iranian kurd or arab 06:51  |  Voice of Reason 19/08/08   38.   no.1... wake up born in the usa.... 07:04  |  ravi 19/08/08   39.   no.18... gen patton.....yawn. 07:07  |  ravi 19/08/08   40.   Europe`s silence? Not being as bold and reckless but responsible 14:28  |  AliciaYasmeen 19/08/08   41.   USA has to be banned too 18:50  |  Aleks 20/08/08   42.   #34 I agree with you as well! 18:35  |  Bruni 21/08/08   43.   These players will not be big for long 03:57  |  American 22/08/08

Read & React State orders West Bank fence rerouted in favor of Palestinians Responses: 28 Israel fears Syria trying to spoil Moscow-Jerusalem ties Responses: 7 Livni: World pressure on Israel, PA could spark third intifada Responses: 14 Shalom Dichter: Give Israeli Arabs the state funding they deserve Send response Karim Sadjadpour: Iran doesn't want to bomb Israel, just vote it out of existence Send response More Headlines 08:03 Israel fears Syria trying to spoil Moscow-Jerusalem ties 07:24 Livni: World pressure on Israel, PA could spark third intifada 07:27 Diplomatic effort on Iran nukes jeopardized by U.S.-Russia crisis 07:44 Police to question Olmert Friday for sixth time in graft probe 07:46 ANALYSIS / Fence relocation is acknowledgment that route is politically motivated 08:56 New Israeli film follows life of Holocaust refugees - in Yiddish 07:38 Study: Babies born just after Six-Day War more likely to have schizophrenia 02:45 Barak: I'm not worried about being removed before elections 02:46 Prosecution to seek immunity for Talansky in U.S. 16:28 State orders West Bank fence rerouted in favor of Palestinians 08:00 Activists sail from Cyprus on Friday in bid to bust Gaza siege 00:26 Israeli tennis star Shahar Peer leads master class for N.Y. children 05:10 Not even mock summit could solve Mideast conflict 00:10 IN PICTURES / Olympians display their body art 02:09 Israeli terror victims sue Chinese bank for funding Hamas, Islamic Jihad 07:42 Top T.V. presenter's life threatened, possibly by 'psychic' interviewee Previous Editions Select Day 21 aug 20 aug 19 aug 18 aug 17 aug 15 aug 14 aug 13 aug 12 aug 11 aug 10 aug 08 aug

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