Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., September 30, 2008 Tishrei 1, 5769 | | Israel Time: 05:50 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Books Haaretz Magazine Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 11:25 16/08/2008
IN DEPTH / The Russian empire strikes back
By Adi Schwartz, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Georgia, Russia

Exactly 40 years ago, on a hot August day in 1968, Alexander Dubcek stood looking out his office window as thousands of Soviet soldiers poured into his city, Prague. The First Secretary of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia and the architect of the "Prague Spring" knew it was only a matter of time until he heard a knock on the door.

In his memoir, "Hope Dies Last," Dubcek wrote, "The main door flew open again, and in walked some higher officers of the KGB, including a highly decorated, very short colonel. The little colonel quickly reeled off a list of all Czechoslovak Communist Party officials present and told us that he was taking us 'under his protection.' Indeed we were protected, sitting around that table - each of us had a tommy gun pointed at the back of his head."

Two days later, Dubcek was taken to the Kremlin, where then Soviet president Leonid Brezhnev explained the prevailing reality to him and cut short the democratic reforms by thumping his fist on the table. Dubcek was sent back to his country, where he spent the next 20 years as a forester in a remote region of Slovakia.
Advertisement
At least for now, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is being spared that fate. He is still the ruler of the small Caucasian state. The outcome of this week's events, however, could prove quite similar to the drama of 40 years ago. The Soviet oppression of Czechoslovakia showed the whole world that the U.S.S.R. would not tolerate democratic adventures within its sphere of influence. The Soviet Union made it clear to Eastern Europe that the West, including the United States, would not lift a finger as Soviet tanks crushed a small sovereign state. The defeat of the Prague Spring truncated a wave of openness and democratization that had washed over both Eastern and Western Europe in the late 1960s.

The two decades that have passed since the fall of the Iron Curtain can now be divided in two. The first 10 years, dubbed the "end of history" by U.S. political philosopher Francis Fukuyama, lasted from 1989 until September 11, 2001, and were characterized by unflappable optimism. The cold war made way for globalization. The Western model trumped all available alternatives. The U.S. became the world's sole superpower, with unchallenged military, diplomatic and economic hegemony. China was taking baby steps toward a free-market economy and Russia was getting its first tastes of democracy.

Then came the terror attack against New York's World Trade Center. Suddenly it turned out that not everyone wanted to join the McDonald's and laptop festivals. The failed U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq caused a deep rift in the Western camp. Russia, which felt severely humiliated over the loss of Eastern Europe and the 15 republics that had made up the Soviet Union, switched gears. Under the scepter of former KGB officer Vladimir Putin, Russia reverted to tricks that were thought forgotten, such as poisoning the Ukrainian president or eliminating journalists and potential political rivals. Instead of human rights, a free-market economy and democracy, we got nationalizations, the imprisoning of rebellious oligarchs and tight supervision of the press.

'History is returning'

This week's events in Georgia are the most obvious manifestation of that shift. On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, with inelegant tardiness, that Washington will not allow Georgia to fall, as it did with Czechoslovakia in 1968. President George W. Bush, for his part, promised humanitarian aid and even delayed his vacation "for a day or two, at least," but for now the American response looks hesitant and anemic.

For the first time in 30 years, Russia has initiated a war beyond its borders. For the first time in 20 years, an elected democratic regime is being threatened by force. For the first time in 20 years, the West is standing exposed and helpless, with its stock exchanges, galloping euro, flourishing economy and highfalutin talk of human rights. The planes and tanks in Georgia have returned to Russia its status of superpower.

In a twist on Fukuyama's "end of history" hypothesis, former Israeli ambassador to Washington Itamar Rabinovich asserted that this week it seemed as though "history is returning in a big way, and America has to cope with a new reality." According to Rabinovich, "The Russians' power play succeeded and is likely to have a great many implications."

The most immediate change will be felt in the Caucasus, a region of utmost strategic and economic importance for both Russia and the West. Dr. Brenda Shaffer, an expert on the Caucasus from Haifa University, explains that the region's natural gas reserves are even more important than its oil. "It is too late to be talking about oil as a global weapon," she says. "In Israel and around the world people still think in terms of the energy crisis of the 1970s, but oil is a fluid that can be transported relatively easily. Oil can be purchased from Russia today, from Norway tomorrow and from Saudi Arabia next week. Gas, on the other hand, must be supplied via pipelines that cost billions of dollars to build. Gas pipelines must pass through several countries and are extremely dependent on local political conditions."

Shaffer notes that in the past few years, European countries have been trying to develop direct supply lines from Central Asian states holding large natural gas reserves. Europe's growing dependency on Russian oil and gas spurred the continent's efforts to find alternatives, which is irritating Russia. "Natural gas, which the Europeans find very attractive because it is more environmentally friendly than oil, has so far traveled from Central Asia to Europe only via Russia," continues Shaffer. "Of course oil also has its problems: The fact that a Sukhoi SU-25 fighter jet 'almost' hit the oil pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea is interesting. The SU-25 is a very sophisticated plane that could easily have bombed the pipeline. Indeed, this doesn't seem like a miss but more like a message to the West: Don't mess with us."

This means that Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on Russia for energy. "Massive projects have been planned in recent years," says Shaffer, "such as the Nabucco Pipeline, to bring Central Asia's natural gas by way of the Caspian Sea and Georgia to the Mediterranean. We can forget about that project now. Russia has made that very clear. Russia did not invade Kazakhstan, but rather a small country that is a bottleneck between Central Asia and the West. No one will want to take the risk of angering the Russians again."

Beginnings of a new world order?

But Russia's message is not merely economic. "Several regimes in this region are wondering about where they are headed," says Shaffer. "America's blatant abandonment of its best friend in the region, President Saakashvili, will certainly prompt a policy reevaluation in countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. If until now these states were certain that it was in their best interest to befriend the Americans - and we saw how they responded to the war in Afghanistan - now they may think it more worthwhile to befriend Iran or Russia. Maybe these two states can protect them where the Americans have failed. From the point of view of U.S. foreign policy, this conclusion has very negative repercussions. The Russian invasion of Georgia exposed the Europeans and Americans' bluff, and left the Georgians on their own. I would even go so far as to say that maybe the presidents of Afghanistan and Iraq are already considering their next steps." This week's unprecedented support for Saakashvili by the presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and Estonia indicates that the picture extends beyond the Caucasus. Alexander Rahr, a member of Germany's Council on Foreign Relations and author of a biography of Vladimir Putin, believes this marks the beginning of a new world order. "Bush's legacy is a foreign policy disaster," says Rahr. "The dream of democratizing the Middle East has been shattered. As his final months in office approached, he was at least trying to bring Ukraine and Georgia closer to NATO, and now that won't happen. He tried to install missiles in the Czech Republic and in Poland, and that won't happen either. It turns out that American influence has its limits, and that Russia has regained a sphere of influence. This is no longer the Russia of the 1990s, beaten and bruised, unable to act on behalf of its own interests. Russia is now in a position to respond, and that is exactly what it did.

"A very similar crisis could develop in the Crimean peninsula, which now belongs to Ukraine, but used to belong to Russia, and has a large Russian population. Now everyone realizes that the Russians are serious. The same thing could also happen in Azerbaijan. Public opinion in those countries could change - from pro-Western to not wanting to rankle the Russian neighbor." Rahr also feels this week's events could affect a possible military campaign against Iran, too. "America's space for maneuver has shrunk," he says, "both strategically and logistically. Now it will be much harder for America to operate in Russia's southern part. Diplomatically, too, Russia's voice will increasingly be heard."

Twilight of U.S. hegemony

The roaring of the Russian artillery near Tbilisi, which clearly revealed that the issue was not South Ossetia but rather Russia's status in the world, also prompted a reevaluation by Sovietologists and Russian historians.

"This is without a doubt a founding moment," says Anne Applebaum, a historian and author of the international best-seller "Gulag: A History." "This week the Russians set an example. Just like when they killed journalist Anna Politkovskaya. There is no need to kill all the country's journalists. One is enough, and all the rest get the message. That's what [Russia] did this week: There is no need to invade all the countries in the region, but they will all get the message.

"In recent years we have seen a deterioration in the human rights situation in Russia," Applebaum continues. "Now it is clear that rising Russian nationalism will extend beyond the country's borders. This week's events also made it clear that the belief that only the U.S. can flex its muscles is mistaken. They marked the end of an era in which the U.S. behaved like the only superpower. It was interesting to follow the events on a split-screen television, showing both the amazing spectacle China organized for the opening of the Olympic Games and pictures from Georgia. We saw two new superpowers, evincing different behavior, of course, but which completely undermine America's global hegemony. We saw history in the making, right before our eyes."

Historian Simon Sebag-Montefiore, author of two biographies of Josef Stalin, believes this is "the start of the twilight of America's sole world hegemony.

"The retaking of Ossetia is a minor part of the Russian campaign," says Montefiore, who has visited Georgia many times and is personally acquainted with the three presidents who have headed the country since the Soviet Union's disintegration. "More significant is the attack on Georgia proper, which reasserts Russia's hegemony over the Caucasus and defies American superpowerdom.

"The prospect of encirclement by triumphant America infuriated Russia," he continues. "Imagine if newly independent Wales joined the Warsaw Pact. This war is really a celebration of ferocious force in the realm of international power, a dangerous precedent. Russia has demonstrated the limits of U.S. power and Moscow's historic destiny as regional and world superpower. The Empire has struck back and shaken the order of the world."

Related articles:
  • Depite pending truce, Russian troops move further into Georgia
  • Israeli journalist seriously hurt in Georgia returns to Israel for treatment
  • Georgia agrees to France's modified peace proposal
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Gilad, forgive us
    On Rosh Hashanah, Noam Shalit says abduction happened 'on Olmert's watch.'
    Rosh Hashanah wishes
    Obama calls to achieve 'peace, security for Israel' on the Jewish High holiday.
      1.   The West has itself to blame for a good deal 14:07  |  Mark B. 16/08/08
      2.   The Russian Empire Strikes Back 14:23  |  Martin Gray 16/08/08
      3.   Re: The russian empire strikes back 14:36  |  Alex 16/08/08
      4.   Usania`s place is America; not Eurasia 16:39  |  Mark Marshall 16/08/08
      5.   This was a orchestrated set up 16:46  |  Chaim Gorenstein 16/08/08
      6.   US to be blamed 16:50  |  Persian Hero 16/08/08
      7.   Carefully orchestrated between US and Russia 16:51  |  Chaim Gorenstein 16/08/08
      8.   Americans have to pay the price of their arrogance 17:13  |  kia 16/08/08
      9.   THIS IS ONLY A BEGINNING 17:17  |  indrajaya 16/08/08
      10.   Twilight of U.S. hegemony 17:40  |  PARIS 16/08/08
      11.   Americhka-Israel-Russia 17:46  |  Nick Potzayid 16/08/08
      12.   Irony of the current war between Georgia and Russia 17:52  |  Haham me Bat Yam 16/08/08
      13.   Bear Baiting Not Won on Points 18:03  |  Mark of Lewiston 16/08/08
      14.   Very good analysis, some more by Bolton, Phares, West and Hanson 18:21  |  Mladen Andrijasevic 16/08/08
      15.   The Olympics Is Not Enough 18:21  |  Shimon Cleopas 16/08/08
      16.   Just how weak willed are the nations of west/central Europe?? 19:02  |  Voice of Reason 16/08/08
      17.   Mark B. # 1 _ Exactly Right. 19:17  |  Eli 16/08/08
      18.   bluff called 19:26  |  Sameer 16/08/08
      19.   what a dumb article 19:33  |  Daniel 16/08/08
      20.   Russia topples baby weak country 19:38  |  Daniel 16/08/08
      21.   Get your facts right 20:57  |  R Bijster 16/08/08
      22.   #16 - some info that might help you understand global politics .. 21:16  |  redmike 16/08/08
      23.   #16 - post 22 was intended for Daniel but I welcome your response 21:34  |  redmike 16/08/08
      24.   Not a return 21:48  |  John Bob Meister 16/08/08
      25.   georgia 22:44  |  anton 16/08/08
      26.   Russian empire = response to capitalism 22:51  |  Akiva P 16/08/08
      27.   We secretly wish the demise of capitalism 22:56  |  Akiva P 16/08/08
      28.   #24 - thanks for your post which made me chuckle ... 23:18  |  redmike 16/08/08
      29.   Georgian Conflict 23:35  |  Brendan 16/08/08
      30.   Eli, the US of A must understand what it did to itself 00:04  |  Mark B. 17/08/08
      31.   NATURAL GAS AND BUSH DAMAGE CONTROL 00:53  |  Arik Silverman 17/08/08
      32.   russian empire strikes back 01:29  |  Lawrence Kohn 17/08/08
      33.   The Russian empire strikes back 02:15  |  Amos 17/08/08
      34.   #31 Arik Silverman, greatly appreciate your post 02:53  |  Mark B. 17/08/08
      35.   Russia crisis only magnifies the need for Middle East Peace 14:09  |  Ivar 17/08/08
      36.   Tanks versus pacts 15:40  |  Nora 17/08/08
      37.   With Georgian invasion Russia commit its serious mistake 16:43  |  loy 17/08/08
      38.   Media missconceptions 17:47  |  Pippo 17/08/08
      39.   #35 Ivar..This Has Nothing to do with the Middle East.It is Just 18:05  |  KATHY 17/08/08
      40.   Ah, the good old days of Ras putin. 18:13  |  charlot 17/08/08
      41.   If you are strong , no one can stop you. 18:20  |  Habib 17/08/08
      42.   #36 Nora Well Put.. 18:50  |  KATHY 17/08/08
      43.   The Russian Empire strikes back 20:37  |  PhilJ 17/08/08
      44.   The Geogian regime was not decmocratically elected. 21:27  |  ManintheMiddle 17/08/08
      45.   #31 Say Arik 21:29  |  ballistic 17/08/08
      46.   #11. Nick must not have thought this through. 21:35  |  ManintheMiddle 17/08/08
      47.   If you are strong you can stop yourself 23:14  |  Uri 17/08/08
      48.   #37 No, it looks like a winning hand for Russia, loy. 07:06  |  Johnboy 18/08/08
      49.   to Eli & Mark B. 08:45  |  Anubhav 18/08/08
      50.   The bottom line - Russia is not Serbia 17:59  |  Boris 18/08/08
      51.   Voice of Reason - WHAT can McCain do? 18:59  |  American 18/08/08
      52.   USA idealism is to blame 22:10  |  B 18/08/08
      53.   2 short dwarfs with the same inferiority complex 00:22  |  yahn goodey 19/08/08
      54.   Georgia started the fight and lost. Tough luck. 17:50  |  American 19/08/08
     Read & React
    Prof. Sternhell: Supporters of occupation are not Zionist
    Responses: 127
    Discontented Fatah politicos consider launching third intifada
    Responses: 73
    Olmert: Israel must quit East Jerusalem and Golan
    Responses: 237
    Gershom Gorenberg: The settlement movement began in self-deception
    Responses: 28


    More Headlines
    05:09 Israel slams fresh Arab move to isolate it at IAEA
    03:12 Stocks nosedive after $700 billion bailout plan rejected
    22:58 Noam Shalit tells son Gilad: Forgive us, we have failed
    16:58 Olmert: Israel must quit East Jerusalem and Golan
    19:44 ANALYSIS / Olmert's epiphany is too little, too late
    14:01 Gaza militants fire Qassam at Israel, in fresh truce violation
    11:14 Jewish World / Taking the New Year to find beauty in Judaism and life
    22:33 Haaretz.com: The year in review
    23:42 U.S. publisher of controversial Muslim book closes office
    03:36 Gaffes and brimstone, as McCain, Obama proxies spar in Jerusalem
    18:55 On Rosh Hashanah, Obama calls to achieve 'peace, security for Israel'
    12:35 Despite new UN resolution, Iran to continue uranium enrichment
    18:22 Abbas wishes Olmert, Livni happy Rosh Hashanah
    09:41 Prof. Sternhell: Supporters of occupation are not Zionist
    13:52 VIDEO / Shimon Peres' Rosh Hashanah greeting to the world
    13:39 Israel Police: Settlers were not behind Palestinian teen's death