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Stuck in the mud
By Aluf Benn
Tags: Labor Party, Israel 

Fourteen months after Ehud Barak took over at the Defense Ministry, the disparity between his lofty status in the government and his lowly image among the public has never been so great. As Prime Minister Ehud Olmert fades into the background, Barak is now positioning himself as the strongman - the person who enabled Olmert to remain in power after the Winograd Committee report on the Second Lebanon War, and then engineered his ouster after the Talansky affair by forcing Kadima to schedule a primary.

Barak prevented a large-scale military operation in Gaza, spearheaded the contacts that resulted in a cease-fire with Hamas, opposed the removal of checkpoints and the evacuation of settler outposts in the West Bank, supported renewal of talks with Syria, and dismissed the discussions held at the Annapolis conference with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The preparations to bomb the Syrian reactor were already at their height when he joined the government, and the result was a who-gets-the-credit war with the prime minister, who viewed the operation as an extraordinary personal achievement, even as Barak recommended delaying it. Barak's confidants say he influenced the choice of the operational plan and initiated the official Israeli silence after the attack. They also give him credit for crucial intervention in authorizing the prisoner-exchange deal with Hezbollah.

The public is refusing to be bowled over by all this activity. Barak continues to lag behind Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu and behind Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in the polls - even after he did what the people wanted and brought about Olmert's resignation.
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Maybe what rankles is the memory of Barak's role in the failure of the Camp David talks, and the eruption of the second intifada on his watch - events that have dogged him like a sinister shadow for the past eight years. Or maybe, as in the case of various events in the past, people simply do not understand what he wants. Is he right or left? Is he in favor of an agreement with the Palestinians, or does he hope that the occupation will continue and the settlements will thrive? Does he have a message to convey as a national leader, or was he brought in as an expert in security, a kind of handyman to help rehabilitate the army after the 2006 war?

The only one

Barak's response this week was that he is the responsible adult, the only one of the candidates for prime minister who sees the situation for what it is and is sufficiently experienced to deal with the tough challenges facing the country. On the agenda are the threats from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, talks with Syria and the Palestinians, and above all the need to restore public confidence in the political system.

Barak's experience is not in question. The problem is that the experience has sometimes been of questionable value, particularly with regard to managing the government coalition and communicating with the public. This week Shalom Kital, the former managing director of Channel 2 News, was appointed to be Barak's adviser in this realm - just months after Barak parted tempestuously from his former adviser, Eldad Yaniv.

Barak views his ministerial colleagues as a traumatized group, whose members have not yet recovered from the battering they took in the Second Lebanon War. Not long ago he proposed to the cabinet a minor military operation, purely surgical in nature, and encountered opposition from the same people who a few weeks earlier had urged him to send four divisions into Gaza.

Barak is benefiting from being "the man who wasn't there" in that fateful summer of 2006, which destroyed the career of his predecessor, Amir Peretz, and the public legitimacy of Ehud Olmert. A few days after the war started, Barak gauged its outcome accurately.

Now he is taking jabs at Tzipi Livni, and she is hitting back: You fled from Lebanon in 2000 and left the area to Hezbollah, she says; you are a signatory to the colossal failure of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 to end the conflict in Lebanon in 2006, he retorts. From Livni's viewpoint, there is nothing wrong about arguing like this. On the contrary: It's better for her to squabble with the former prime minister and present head of Labor than with her rivals in Kadima. It makes her first among equals.

Barak has to disengage from Livni, after all the rumors and reports about how they were joining forces. He wants to erode her popularity, and there is also a political reckoning here: A strong Kadima will ruin Barak's chances of returning to power and leave him, at best, as Livni's defense minister. He understands this and is not exactly thrilled by the prospect. Accordingly, he declared that the next elections will be a contest between him and Netanyahu, a reprise of 1999.

Kadima is virtually nonexistent on Barak's political map. He is critical of Shaul Mofaz, too, because of the threats the transportation minister has made against Iran, but that's relatively minor criticism, and not personal - unlike in the case of Livni.

Will this strategy work? Barak hopes that at the moment of truth, in the voting booth, his "security authority" will overshadow that of his rivals and the electorate will send him back to the Prime Minister's Office. In the meantime, he is gambling that the public will enthusiastically adopt the new image he started to display this week: of a political mud wrestler.
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