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Let the fun begin By Yossi Verter Tags: israel, kadima Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni knew that the day would not be far off when one of her rivals would quote Hillary Clinton's brilliant campaign ad, which asks who you would want to answer the White House's red phone at 3 A.M. Early this week it was actually Defense Minister Ehud Barak, speaking to Labor Party members in Jerusalem, who did so: "When the moment of truth arrives, we need to ask: Whom do we want to pick up the phone at 3 A.M.? Will that person have the necessary experience and an understanding of the issues at hand? This isn't a reality show. You aren't voting for a contestant on 'Survivor' or 'Dancing with Stars.'" Barak's remarks can be understood as a call for registered Kadima voters to vote for Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz as new Kadima chair. Livni realizes this; she says she has identified certain elements from Labor and Shas who are interfering in the Kadima primary in favor of Mofaz. If she were to reply to Barak, she would say: The people will know how to choose. But they won't bring someone back who failed in the reality show last season, or choose a captain who steered his ship into seven years of intifada. It is clear to Livni that the chance of forming a unity government, as she has declared to do if elected, is zero, because opposition leader MK Benjamin Netanyahu will not join it. She thinks it's necessary to discuss everything with the Palestinians, while Netanyahu talks only about "economic peace and security arrangements." But Livni maintains that no Palestinian is going to talk to us under those conditions. It's like saying it's possible to make peace with Syria without relinquishing the Golan Heights. Advertisement In any case, we won't see Livni covering her hair and trotting up to Rabbi Yosef Ovadia's apartment. Certainly not during the run-up to the primary; maybe later, if she wins. This week Netanyahu and Mofaz did go to see the rabbi. They both got blessings, and a few slaps. If Mofaz wins the Kadima primary, he will try to form a government. Netanyahu will do everything he can to prevent him from doing so, and Shas will bargain with both in its own inimitable way. Waiting for the wave Some people see Livni's refusal to declare that she will remain in Kadima even if she loses the primary as a gross violation of the rules of the game, a kind of "conditional" candidacy. Others see it as courageous. What is clear is that if Mofaz is elected and takes Kadima in a direction that Livni, who co-founded the party, doesn't like - she will leave, for a new party or home. If she leaves, others will leave with her. Then Kadima could experience the same thing Labor went through in 2005 after Shimon Peres, Dalia Itzik and Haim Ramon left it for Kadima: They took along six or seven Knesset seats, some of which passed from Ariel Sharon to Ehud Olmert when he was elected prime minister. If this occurs, Mofaz will not be able to form a government. He will have to go to elections heading a kind of Likud "B," and hope Netanyahu will pick him as defense minister. Livni has told associates that she's not going to play this game, which would allow some people to sit on a fence. I am not going to support something I don't believe in - just for a certain position, she says. I will support what I do believe in - even without the position. When Livni talks about people who are looking to sit on the fence, she is referring to Itzik, who, together with MK Tzachi Hanegbi, initiated the candidates' declarations of intentions. Of all people, Itzik, who defected from Labor with Peres, and Hanegbi, who defected from Likud, have together embarked on a hunt for potential escapees, which is aimed, she says, at "calming down the party." She, in turn, went to Mofaz, who is considered to be a permanent suspect for returning to the Likud, and asked: "Who here promises he won't leave if he loses?" "I promise," Mofaz told Itzik. "I did this once and that's enough. I'm staying, come what may." Itzik then went to Livni, who, as noted, refused to commit herself. The next day Itzik announced that, as things stand, she would not support any of the candidates. Kadima members are saying that Itzik's initiative was aimed at allowing her to declare "neutrality," which indirectly benefits Mofaz. Livni is hoping for a surging wave of support. Thus far, the wave has consisted of Finance Minister Roni Bar-On, one of Kadima's most influential figures, who declared his support for her yesterday, and MK Yoel Hasson, the new chair of the Knesset faction, who dared to come out in favor of Livni even though the Kadima's "grass roots" still believe Mofaz will win. She is hoping that Hanegbi will join them soon. Still facing trial for political corruption, he is still someone she would welcome. At the expense of Olmert, against whom no indictment has yet been filed, she has conducted an whole campaign of integrity and uncorruptibility. Taking a beating If Barak doesn't start to get in gear politically, and publicly, he'll be taken off the Toto lottery tickets, says one of his supporters. "When a team loses in a serial and predictable manner," he explains, "they take it off the betting tickets because it doesn't have any more gambling value." When Barak returned from his important visit to Washington last week, he was greeted by the public opinion polls. According to the Haaretz-Dialogue poll, only 8 percent of respondents thought him suitable for prime minister, compared to 22 percent for Livni. If Livni becomes chair, the polls are predicting 26 Knesset seats for her party, and 14 for Labor. Livni and Kadima would attract Labor voters. Even sworn foes of Barak admit that this gap is beyond their understanding. The man carries the baggage of 18 months as prime minister, but remains one of the most brilliant and talented people among us - no less than Netanyahu (who in the same poll garnered 29 percent support, and 25 Knesset seats). During the past 14 months, Barak has been investing his soul in the Defense Ministry, the rehabilitation of the Israel Defense Forces and preparing the army for the next war, and he isn't getting credit for anything. Netanyahu is gaining strength in the opposition, Livni is accumulating power and popularity at the Foreign Ministry - and Barak is taking a beating from every direction. He has tried silence; it hasn't helped. Now he is considering saying something, but it might be too late. It is already clear: His decisions to join the government in June 2007, after the interim Winograd report on the conduct of the Second Lebanon War, and to remain there after the final Winograd report, and after the Morris Talansky affair broke, have spelled his political death. Even the move to shunt Olmert aside, which has his name all over it, has not yielded any political gains for him. Barak faces a difficult dilemma in the coming weeks: If Livni wins the primary and he joins her government, he will provide her with a "certificate of approval" to become prime minister. If Mofaz wins and Barak joins his government, he will do the same for him, too, and will thus put their biographies on an equal footing (both of them served as chief of staff and as defense minister, but only Barak has been prime minister); Barak will thus lose his only advantage over Mofaz. If, however, he does not join Mofaz's government, Barak will head into elections and end up with between 15-17, or even 19, Knesset seats, meaning he will be deposed. "In a perfect world," said one associate of Barak's this week, "we would join Netanyahu and the Likud after the Kadima primary, establish an emergency government for one year, headed by someone like [National Infrastructure Minister Benjamin] Ben-Eliezer, kick Kadima into the opposition, let it crumble and then go to elections in May 2009." But, the source admitted, "this isn't going to happen because it's so cynical and disgusting that people would shun us." Nevertheless, there are those working to strengthen the relationship between Netanyahu and Barak. If this doesn't bear fruit and result in anti-Kadima cooperation before the elections, maybe it will happen afterward. Another maneuver Whatever happens in Israeli politics in the middle of September, once a new Kadima head is elected, the "stinking maneuver" of Shimon Peres (his attempt in 1990 to topple Yitzhak Shamir's coalition government) will come to mind: If elected, Mofaz has already declared his intention of establishing a government. Netanyahu, who is utterly opposed to joining the government during this Knesset term, will fight this with all his might. Shas will go for broke: It will demand more child-support allotments and call for support of the Rabbinical Courts Law (giving those bodies judiciary authority). Labor will demand an increase in the pensioners' stipends (it is, after all, on its way to becoming the largest pensioners' party) and replacement of the justice minister, and will oppose the Rabbinical Courts Law. The coalition negotiations will include talks on the 2009 budget: While the Finance Ministry is demanding a cut of at least NIS 10 billion, the parties will call for a budget increase. Add to this the struggle over ministerial positions. The issue of the increased child allotments will star in the negotiations. Mofaz, Shas sources are saying, has promised support for this. As has Livni (who says she hasn't). While Mofaz may have promised Shas things, he could be trading merchandise he doesn't have. After all, he will clash with the treasury and face a revolt in the economic realm, opposition from the Labor Party and islands of rebellion in Kadima, too. Not all the members of this faction will agree to surrender to Shas, which has of late been running wilder than ever - the more it got from Olmert, the greedier and more audacious it became. Anyone who has spoken to Olmert's people this week has discerned great relief among them, mingled with the sadness that has prevailed at the Prime Minister's Bureau since his announcement to resign. Relief that they will no longer have to deal with this impossible budget. At government and cabinet meetings this week Olmert looked sad and burned out. If looks could kill, two corpses would have been carried out of there: those of Barak and Livni. "They sat there," related one minister, "Olmert, Barak opposite him, Livni on his right and Mofaz on her right, and they didn't exchange a single word. Not even hello." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Safe haven reached 200 fleeing Georgia after the outbreak of hostilities arrive at Israel's Ben-Gurion Airport. Fatal heartbreak Disabled man dies of heart attack after his girlfriend was arrested by Immigration Police.   1.   "bring back who failed",Livni describes herself 21:09  |  Dish It Out 08/08/08

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