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ANALYSIS / If Israelis bought Hezbollah swap scheme, why not one with Hamas?
By Amos Harel
Tags: israel, prisoner exchange 

Israel completed its part of the prisoner swap deal with Hezbollah Wednesday when it released five Palestinian youths held for throwing rocks, as a special good-will gesture to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. The prisoners were released as the final step in the deal, which saw the return of the bodies of abducted Israeli Defense Forces soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser.

The Israeli gesture was minimal, as Hezbollah had originally demanded the release of hundreds of Palestinians, including murderers. Israel refused, and succeeded in lowering the number of prisoners and the crimes involved to a minimum. As such, the prisoners were not just small fish, they were hardly minnows.

But here is an interesting coincidence: A few hours after the five prisoner youths returned home to their families, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced another gesture - this one to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel said it would free over 100 Palestinian prisoners within a month.
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Is there a connection between the two acts? Officially, Israel denies it. But the fact is that for nine months, since the Annapolis Summit, no such similar gestures were made.

As long as Goldwasser and Regev's bodies were held in Lebanon, no Palestinian prisoners were released. And now, suddenly and with no connection, over 100 prisoners are to go free.

The fate of Palestinian prisoners was one of the main obstacles in the negotiations with Hezbollah. It was important for Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to maintain the link he established in the Elhanan Tennenbaum deal in 2004, when Israel released about 400 Palestinians.

Israel, of course, tried to keep the number of Palestinians freed to a minimum. Before the cabinet approved the deal with Hezbollah, Ofer Dekel, the chief Israeli negotiator, said Israel would probably release eight or nine Palestinians. Estimates later rose to 30 or 40. Olmert's bureau explained this week that the number dropped to only five due to the unsatisfactory report Hezbollah prepared on missing air force navigator Ron Arad as part of the recent swap.

Five freed prisoners certainly seems to be a proper punishment for Nasrallah - unless of course we are really talking about over 100.

The mathematical dispute is particularly relevant since it may repeat itself in the deal for Gilad Shalit, if and when it occurs. Israeli sources are talking about freeing 450 prisoners, and the question surrounds their identity: If Israel decides to go ahead with the deal, then it will have to include murderers who were involved in some of the worst terror attacks.

But all the reports from the Palestinian side speak of over a thousand prisoners, no less. How do we bridge the gap? In this case, too, there will most likely be a second release of hundreds of prisoners as a good-will gesture to the PA - seemingly without any connection to the Shalit deal.

If the public falls for it in the Hezbollah deal, why won't it work with Hamas too?

Related articles:
  • Israel to free 5 Palestinians in final stage of Hezbollah swap
  • After swap, Israel fears Hezbollah will escalate tensions in North
  • Why does Israel keep agreeing to prisoner swaps?
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