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Last update - 00:00 06/08/2008
ANALYSIS / This time around, Hezbollah is aiming higher
By Amos Harel
Tags: IAF, Hezbollah, Israel 

Just as they were during the first three years after Israel quit Lebanon in May 2000, Israeli overflights of its northern neighbor now threaten to become the main point of Israel-Hezbollah friction. During the last round, however, Hezbollah had no weapons capable of truly threatening Israel's planes. This time, aided by Iran and Syria, it seems to be aiming much higher.

Israel deems the overflights essential for intelligence purposes. While it halted them when it first left Lebanon, it resumed them five months later, after Hezbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers, and never stopped them again. It was these flights, for instance, that enabled Israel to learn the positions of the long-range missiles that it destroyed on the first day of the Second Lebanon War in 2006. They presumably also provide clues to developments in Syria.

For Hezbollah, the flights were a threat, but also an opportunity: They provided a pretext for continuing its "resistance to the Israeli occupation." It continued its anti-aircraft fire until summer 2003, when one such barrage killed a child in Shlomi, and Israel's fierce retaliatory bombardment caused the organization to desist.
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Now, however, it seems keen to reopen this front, even at the cost of provoking a harsh Israeli response.

The aerial front was Hezbollah's principal weak spot during the Second Lebanon War. Israel's air force did as it pleased in Lebanon's skies, from destroying the Fajr missiles to dropping special forces in Hezbollah's stronghold of Bekaa. Now, according to both Military Intelligence assessments and recent reports in the Arabic media, Hezbollah is seeking to close this gap.

Should Hezbollah install advanced anti-aircraft batteries, accompanied by modern radar, this would cause significant problems for Israeli overflights. And that in turn would score domestic points for the organization, justifying its refusal to disarm. Smuggling in such batteries should not be difficult, given the massive quantities of rockets and antitank missiles it has already succeeded in bringing in from Syria.

Which missiles in particular Israel is worried about has not been publicized. But in 2005, when Russia was reportedly about to sell SA-18 missiles to Syria, Israel protested vehemently, on the grounds that such missiles can easily be removed from their carriers, making them highly suitable for use by terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah.

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      1.   WAR IS UPON YOU IN SEPT. 03:59  |  Fred 06/08/08
      2.   Let me get this right...... 04:07  |  Wally 06/08/08
      3.   Curtis Mayfield said,:"Fred is dead,..." 04:56  |  Akiva P 06/08/08
      4.   Do you think the Hizbo`s are THAT stupid?? 05:18  |  Jimmy 06/08/08
      5.   To Fred in Canada 06:02  |  Sam C 06/08/08
      6.   Next War , Lebanon Is Up To Destruction & Not Only Hezbollah 06:08  |  Joseph.E 06/08/08
      7.   One easy answer 06:10  |  Neil 06/08/08
      8.   Israel can`t deem overflights essential. The Law 06:27  |  lydia 06/08/08
      9.   The dynamic duo of injustice and war mongering 06:29  |  Natallie Durson 06/08/08
      10.   #2 - Wally 06:35  |  JES 06/08/08
      11.   The system`s limitations 06:46  |  Mark Lincoln 06/08/08
      12.   The war against Hizbullah does not concern Israel only. 07:14  |  Jean Van Daem 06/08/08
      13.   Bomb them before they are operational 07:20  |  Fortuna Benmayor 06/08/08
      14.   Intelligence gathering always involves risk tradeoffs 07:25  |  Jewboy 06/08/08
      15.   For Fred # 1, who calls Israelis stupid. 07:25  |  Fortuna Benmayor 06/08/08
      16.   A terrorist controled government.. 07:39  |  Hetz 06/08/08
      17.   Re: Fortuna Benmayor 07:46  |  Joseph 06/08/08
      18.   #10 And what this the USAF do when they were downed, JES? 08:31  |  Johnboy 06/08/08
      19.   #13 fortuna has the answer..... 08:42  |  Johnboy 06/08/08
      20.   #14 Yeah, Jewboy, but what if a pilot`s number comes up? 08:58  |  Johnboy 06/08/08
      21.   The Language of War 09:23  |  Markus 06/08/08
      22.   Hey Wally Israeli Gov has ratified overflights 09:33  |  Have you read 1701 06/08/08
      23.   Fortuna Benmayor, 09:43  |  Fred 06/08/08
      24.   LEBANESE need to know.No more surprise attacks on Israel 09:54  |  PETER SM 06/08/08
      25.   Wally the wally #2 10:54  |  bruce 06/08/08
      26.   Israelis are losers 10:58  |  Abu Abed AL Beiruti 06/08/08
      27.   Unfortanately Still Necessary 11:29  |  ERSB 06/08/08
      28.   One Lebanon 11:38  |  Gregor 06/08/08
      29.   the choice between two evils 12:08  |  lyna 06/08/08
      30.   The Absorbatron is going to get you 12:13  |  x-ray 06/08/08
      31.   Abu Abed 12:18  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 06/08/08
      32.   Thank you Abu Abd Al Beiruti 12:32  |  ERSB 06/08/08
      33.   #26 Abu: This is why Israel has the rigth to retaliate 12:40  |  Bojan 06/08/08
      34.   Next Time - No Crying 13:23  |  Stan 06/08/08
      35.   Not only Hizbullah, but Lebanon is now the ennemy 13:23  |  maurice 06/08/08
      36.   TO NO 26 THE ARAB LOSER. 13:33  |  DANNY. 06/08/08
      37.   #25 bruce makes a bold statement 13:58  |  Johnboy 06/08/08
      38.   Let`s face it, the zionist project is over, and b"h 14:01  |  Chanalau, Tova 06/08/08
      39.   israeli arrogance 14:03  |  David King 06/08/08
      40.   Cluster bombs 14:08  |  David King 06/08/08
      41.   #27 You seem to miss out a necessary step, ERSB 14:14  |  Johnboy 06/08/08
      42.   Lebanon is held hostage by terrorists. 14:27  |  Petra 06/08/08
      43.   Abu Abdel from beirut (west) 14:45  |  Castor Troy 06/08/08
      44.   Abu Abdel from beirut (west) 14:45  |  Castor Troy 06/08/08
      45.   Johnboy - Ignoring Inconvienient Facts 15:00  |  ERSB 06/08/08
      46.   David King what you forget 15:08  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 06/08/08
      47.   David King - I think not 15:21  |  ERSB 06/08/08
      48.   Lyna I Sypathize with you 16:03  |  ERSB 06/08/08
      49.   #20 Johnboy - Full of what if`s 17:56  |  * BEN JABO 06/08/08
      50.   Chanalau ... is the Samson Option still `on the table`? 19:04  |  Bl4ckP0pe 06/08/08
      51.   #18 - Poor, poor Johnboy 19:25  |  JES 06/08/08
      52.   351 JES retcons again.... 01:25  |  Johnboy 07/08/08
      53.   #51 JES puts in another day at the Ministry of Truth 10:37  |  Johnboy 07/08/08
      54.   #51 You appear to be dodging the point, JES 10:54  |  Johnboy 07/08/08
      55.   #52-54 - I`m impressed! (2nd Try) 11:46  |  JES 08/08/08
      56.   #55 JES still doesn`t get the point. 04:08  |  Johnboy 09/08/08
      57.   #55 Wiiiiiiiizzzzzzzzzz goes "the point" 04:39  |  Johnboy 09/08/08
      58.   #56 - Johnboy 08:59  |  JES 09/08/08
      59.   #58 JES makes me laught 05:25  |  Johnboy 10/08/08
      60.   JeanVan Daem 13:23  |  Indian 16/09/08
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