Congress likely to see record number of Jewish legislators

In Will next U.S. Congress top current record number of Jewish lawmakers?, and in Will we see a record number of Jewish lawmakers? (Round 2) I was trying to "predict whether the 2008 Congress will break the record number of Jewish legislators that was established in the 2006 election cycle".

The answer was: it is possible. A Democratic tsunami will be the main factor influencing such an outcome.

Now it is time for an update, and for an even more upbeat assessment (from a Jewish, not political, point of view). In some of the races changes have occurred; in others we have new polls. The chance for a new record seem to have improved. Few Jewish candidates are in danger of losing seats - more Jewish candidates have improved their chances of winning seats. So, "my fellow obsessive Jew-counters," here is what you need to know:

In the Senate, the two Jewish incumbents running against Jewish challengers (Coleman in MN and Lautenberg in NJ) seem pretty safe. But in the House, some races are very close.

1. Alaska is basically a toss up, and two weeks before the primaries, candidate Eithan Berkowitz`s chances are quite good. He has received more money and his poll numbers are going up. He can win it all.

2. If newspapers selected nominees, Howard Shanker would not be one this year. The Arizona Republic has endorsed a different candidate for the Democratic nomination, and Shanker's chances of winning the primary battle still seem questionable. If he does though, the general election will be worth watching. Arizona's 1st Congressional District is a toss up.

3. New Jersey's District 3 race, with candidate John Adler running as the Democratic candidate, is still listed as a toss up, but experts I've been talking to agree that Adler has an edge. These fund raising numbers will help you understand why this coming November, he is more likely than not to be added to the Jewish legislators' column.

4. When we wrote about New Jersey District 5 and the race of Rabbi Dennis Shulman we said it was a long shot. Later we updated this assessment, highlighting the fact that the Democratic Party added the race to a list of emerging races. The Cook Political Report still gave an advantage to the Republican, but Shulman is getting more and more attention. Not long ago, Time magazine, reported that "While Garrett may be the district's traditional choice, any political professional from either party will confirm that these are unconventional times. So, the fact that Shulman is anything but a conventional candidate may yet turn the race for New Jersey's 5th District into a humdinger."

5. Gary Trauner of Wyoming is another candidate that we included in the long shot column, but reports from past weeks have highlighted the fact that he is leading in fund raising and actually doing quite well. Here is one State Senator explaining why this year can be the year for a Democrat like Trauner: "Obama's biggest impact may be that he doesn't create a dynamic that will hurt Trauner's candidacy".

6. John Shadegg is still the leading candidate in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, but Bob Lord is not going to go away easily with fund-raising as impressive as this.

7. Last but not least: Judy Feder of the Virginia State battle will be getting a boost of money and support from the Party. The reason: She is now part of the Red to Blue program. "The DCCC, which only aids candidates for House seats, selects candidates for the program who surpass certain fundraising goals and who have a reasonable chance of winning in the fall". And if they see a chance for success for her candidacy-so should we.

Bottom line: Two new Jewish House members are needed to break the record. It is not just possible, I think it is likely.